NY Quarantine State Metrics

[Agoldsc1]

According to the NYS website, the quarantine states are “based upon a seven day rolling average, of positive tests in excess of 10%, or number of positive cases exceeding 10 per 100,000 residents.”

I get the 10% part, but how does the 10 in 100,000 work? That’s .001%? Is there any place on Earth right now that has such low rates? And if so, how do those two figures work together?

There is probably a simple explanation and it’s going over my head at the moment, but if someone can explain that would be great.

Thanks.

[S209]

According to the NYS website, the quarantine states are “based upon a seven day rolling average, of positive tests in excess of 10%, or number of positive cases exceeding 10 per 100,000 residents.”

I get the 10% part, but how does the 10 in 100,000 work? That’s .001%? Is there any place on Earth right now that has such low rates? And if so, how do those two figures work together?

There is probably a simple explanation and it’s going over my head at the moment, but if someone can explain that would be great.

Thanks.

It means a total positive case load of 10 per 100K residents or more. As an example, it would mean 1,900+ positives in NY (a state of 19 million). NY had 1,150 positive test yesterday, so they would not fit the bill currently.

This is distinct from the positivity rate.

[TimT]

It means a total positive case load of 10 per 100K residents or more. As an example, it would mean 1,900+ positives in NY (a state of 19 million). NY had 1,150 positive test yesterday, so they would not fit the bill currently.

This is distinct from the positivity rate.

Is 1900 positives in a state of 19 million cause for concern ? That’s how I’m understanding OP’s question

[Agoldsc1]

It means a total positive case load of 10 per 100K residents or more. As an example, it would mean 1,900+ positives in NY (a state of 19 million). NY had 1,150 positive test yesterday, so they would not fit the bill currently.

This is distinct from the positivity rate.

Thanks for the explanation.

But then what’s the point of the 10% figure? It seems to me that if a state is good with the 10 per 100k, then they’re definitely good with the 10%?

And according to the NYT (https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/new-york-coronavirus-cases.amp.html) NY has 50 cases per 100k in the past 7 days? Doesn’t NY then run afoul if it’s own regulations?

[Lurker]

NY's quarantine rules have never made any sense. You'd be very hard pressed to find someone here to defend them.

[Agoldsc1]

Is 1900 positives in a state of 19 million cause for concern ? That’s how I’m understanding OP’s question

Actually, I’m just trying to figure out how close Florida or is (or isn’t) to coming off the quarantine list. From what I see, they have 84 cases per 100k, so looks like they’re pretty far at the moment unfortunately.

[Agoldsc1]

NY's quarantine rules have never made any sense. You'd be very hard pressed to find someone here to defend them.

Just looking to understand the math at the moment.

[Lurker]

Actually, I’m just trying to figure out how close Florida or is (or isn’t) to coming off the quarantine list. From what I see, they have 84 cases per 100k, so looks like they’re pretty far at the moment unfortunately.

FL will likely never be off the list until they change the reqs.

[S209]

Thanks for the explanation.

But then what’s the point of the 10% figure? It seems to me that if a state is good with the 10 per 100k, then they’re definitely good with the 10%?

Positivity rate is measured as a percentage of tests conducted. Total cases is irrespective of how many tests were conducted. They are separate measures that should be used in conjunction.

And according to the NYT (https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/new-york-coronavirus-cases.amp.html) NY has 50 cases per 100k in the past 7 days? Doesn’t NY then run afoul if it’s own regulations?

NY has 50 cases per 100K cumulatively in the past 7 days, not as a single day (7 day rolling) average.

[Agoldsc1]

Positivity rate is measured as a percentage of tests conducted. Total cases is irrespective of how many tests were conducted. They are separate measures that should be used in conjunction.
NY has 50 cases per 100K cumulatively in the past 7 days, not as a single day (7 day rolling) average.

OK, thank you. I think I’ve got it now.

[S209]

Is 1900 positives in a state of 19 million cause for concern ? That’s how I’m understanding OP’s question

I didn’t understand that to be OPs question, I understood him as simply not understanding how it is measured.

If that was the question, yes it can be, considering that number means there a total of 1,900 positive cases per day that we have already detected, not counting those untested or those who are not yet positive. If positivity rate is still extremely low (say, below 1%) in conjunction with that number then perhaps that number can still be dismissed.

[S209]

OK, thank you. I think I’ve got it now.

Glad to be of help. I’ll like your post now.

[Agoldsc1]

FL will likely never be off the list until they change the reqs.

From what I see online, they’re already under the 10% testing (but barely), and the 7 day rolling average is 2,539 cases/day out of a population of 21.5M, so if doing the numbers correctly, they’re not that far off.

My figures are based on: https://covidusa.net/?autorefresh=1&state=Florida.

[avromie7]

From what I see online, they’re already under the 10% testing (but barely), and the 7 day rolling average is 2,539 cases/day out of a population of 21.5M, so if doing the numbers correctly, they’re not that far off.

My figures are based on: https://covidusa.net/?autorefresh=1&state=Florida.

they're not that far, but the numbers have been going down very slowly. It may take a few more weeks.

[Lurker]

From what I see online, they’re already under the 10% testing (but barely), and the 7 day rolling average is 2,539 cases/day out of a population of 21.5M, so if doing the numbers correctly, they’re not that far off.

My figures are based on: https://covidusa.net/?autorefresh=1&state=Florida.

The problem is that the 7 day rolling average is the same as the 30 day average. Our 7 day average has been between 2200 and 2850 since 9/8. It's almost like we've bottomed out as low as we can go. There may be a very small window between now and Thanksgiving in which we fall below the 10/100k threshold, but it most likely won't be for long even if it does happen.

[avromie7]

The problem is that the 7 day rolling average is the same as the 30 day average. Our 7 day average has been between 2200 and 2850 since 9/8. It's almost like we've bottomed out as low as we can go. There may be a very small window between now and Thanksgiving in which we fall below the 10/100k threshold, but it most likely won't be for long even if it does happen.

It went from 2700 to 2300 and the positivity rate went from 13.5 to 10.5. It's not flat, but it's going down very slowly. Something is weird with the numbers from this week, so we'll have until wait until next week for it to clear up.

[aygart]

The problem is that the 7 day rolling average is the same as the 30 day average. Our 7 day average has been between 2200 and 2850 since 9/8. It's almost like we've bottomed out as low as we can go. There may be a very small window between now and Thanksgiving in which we fall below the 10/100k threshold, but it most likely won't be for long even if it does happen.

#FlattenTheCurve

[Afrages6]

It went from 2700 to 2300 and the positivity rate went from 13.5 to 10.5. It's not flat, but it's going down very slowly. Something is weird with the numbers from this week, so we'll have until wait until next week for it to clear up.

Yeah there was a problem with duplicity of tests..

[Lurker]

It went from 2700 to 2300 and the positivity rate went from 13.5 to 10.5. It's not flat, but it's going down very slowly. Something is weird with the numbers from this week, so we'll have until wait until next week for it to clear up.

It's been at 2400+ since 10/8, and is at 2662 today. There was a massive dump with duplicate tests, leading to no numbers being released on 10/10 and over 5k cases being reported on 10/11. We can wait a week to sort through it all, but wouldn't put money on the numbers looking much different.

[Lurker]

#FlattenTheCurve

I'm actually pretty happy with it. I haven't felt this safe in public in a long time. Precautions are up, cases are fairly low. I know it's just a temporary lull, but after a month of 10k/day, I'll take it. And the hospitals are getting a well deserved break, so #Flattenthatcurve.