COVID fatality estimates

[jye]

At least for those under 60

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S001393512201982X

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/03/03/who-says-coronavirus-death-rate-is-3point4percent-globally-higher-than-previously-thought.html

[aygart]

At least for those under 60

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S001393512201982X

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/03/03/who-says-coronavirus-death-rate-is-3point4percent-globally-higher-than-previously-thought.html

Where are you seeing this in that study?

[jye]

Where are you seeing this in that study?

“Across 31 systematically identified national seroprevalence studies in the pre-vaccination era, the median infection fatality rate of COVID-19 was estimated to be 0.034% for people aged 0–59 years people”

“World health officials said Tuesday the mortality rate for COVID-19 is 3.4% globally“

[Lurker]

CDC estimated the fatality rate to be 3.4% of all reported cases as of the end of Feb 2020. They didn't estimate that Covid would kill 3.4% of people who would get Covid over the next year.

[jye]

CDC estimated the fatality rate to be 3.4% of all reported cases as of the end of Feb 2020. They didn't estimate that Covid would kill 3.4% of people who would get Covid over the next year.

True. Would have to look back and see if they were predicting a similar rate going forward.

[S209]

True. Would have to look back and see if they were predicting a similar rate going forward.

You’re missing the distinction: they were estimating the case fatality rate (CFR) while this study is assessing the infection fatality rate (IFR).

The IFR was estimated at somewhere around .2% back in 2020, with the great majority of deaths occurring in those 65+. This study appears to confirm those early estimates.

Early CFR estimates were assumed to be high for several reasons, including scarcity of testing, fear of going out to get tested, and poor recognition of symptoms.

[dm123]

At least for those under 60

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S001393512201982X

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/03/03/who-says-coronavirus-death-rate-is-3point4percent-globally-higher-than-previously-thought.html

Where was the CDC mentioned? I only see references to WHO. Did I miss it?

[Alexsei]

Where is @CountValentine ?

[Dan]

You’re missing the distinction: they were estimating the case fatality rate (CFR) while this study is assessing the infection fatality rate (IFR).

The IFR was estimated at somewhere around .2% back in 2020, with the great majority of deaths occurring in those 65+. This study appears to confirm those early estimates.

Early CFR estimates were assumed to be high for several reasons, including scarcity of testing, fear of going out to get tested, and poor recognition of symptoms.

+1.
Some of my old roundups and comments discussed the IFRs. They were always very very low for young people.

[S209]

The main thing you can glean from this is that it confirms what we knew: COVID is alarmingly dangerous for those who are high risk.

[Yehuda57]

Can we get an updated headline for this thread?

ETA: Thanks!

[jye]

Thanks. Better.