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Author Topic: Demographics Trump Is Polling Badly In  (Read 6051 times)

Offline PlatinumGuy

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Demographics Trump Is Polling Badly In
« on: October 15, 2020, 08:56:43 PM »
Who are the voters who voted for Trump in 2016 and are telling pollsters they won't vote for him in 2020, and why?

Military & Veteran fans who are offended by his rhetoric on McCain & other 'losers' - In 2016 Turmp had a 20% lead on Clinton amongst active military, but Biden now has a 7% lead. - Is this how he lost so much ground in PA & AZ?

Seniors - more impacted by Covid and blaming Trump for it, and offended by his Biden Hiden' rhetoric which they take personally as similarly diminishing humans.

Younger voter base - Trump's core demographic of old White men is 2-3% smaller than it was 4 years ago.

On the other hand I'm sure there are never-Trumpers who believed he was an unthinkable candidate but are now convinced he's tolerable

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Online YitzyS

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Re: Demographics Trump Is Polling Badly In
« Reply #1 on: October 15, 2020, 09:40:39 PM »
Quote from: PlatinumGuy on October 15, 2020, 08:56:43 PM
Who are the voters who voted for Trump in 2016 and are telling pollsters they won't vote for him in 2020, and why?

Military & Veteran fans who are offended by his rhetoric on McCain & other 'losers' - In 2016 Turmp had a 20% lead on Clinton amongst active military, but Biden now has a 7% lead. - Is this how he lost so much ground in PA & AZ?

Seniors - more impacted by Covid and blaming Trump for it, and offended by his Biden Hiden' rhetoric which they take personally as similarly diminishing humans.

Younger voter base - Trump's core demographic of old White men is 2-3% smaller than it was 4 years ago.

On the other hand I'm sure there are never-Trumpers who believed he was an unthinkable candidate but are now convinced he's tolerable
You may be right about all those demographics, but the rest of the country is voting for Trump.
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Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Demographics Trump Is Polling Badly In
« Reply #2 on: October 15, 2020, 09:43:10 PM »
Asian Americans are likely to give Biden Texas (5%) and Nevada (10%).
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Online YitzyS

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Re: Demographics Trump Is Polling Badly In
« Reply #3 on: October 15, 2020, 10:01:40 PM »
Good point. I reread my post and realized what it implies.

My only intention was to be silly with PlatinumGuy, who is not a Trump supporter. Similar to my earlier post in this thread, which is obviously untrue, but still a jab.

ETA: The reason you are reading this and not understanding is because two previous posts were deleted. But the second line in this post still stands, so I'm not deleting this post.
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Online Yo ssi

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Re: Demographics Trump Is Polling Badly In
« Reply #4 on: October 15, 2020, 10:30:19 PM »
Quote from: YitzyS on October 15, 2020, 10:01:40 PM
Good point. I reread my post and realized what it implies.

My only intention was to be silly with PlatinumGuy, who is not a Trump supporter. Similar to my earlier post in this thread, which is obviously untrue, but still a jab.

ETA: The reason you are reading this and not understanding is because two previous posts were deleted. But the second line in this post still stands, so I'm not deleting this post.
FR#18
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Online YitzyS

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Re: Demographics Trump Is Polling Badly In
« Reply #5 on: October 15, 2020, 10:40:48 PM »
Quote from: Yo ssi on October 15, 2020, 10:30:19 PM
FR#18
There is a reason my legal team said I should phrase it that the posts "were deleted" without implicating anyone...

h/t @hillaryclinton
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Offline S209

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Re: Demographics Trump Is Polling Badly In
« Reply #6 on: October 15, 2020, 11:25:13 PM »
Quote from: YitzyS on October 15, 2020, 10:40:48 PM
There is a reason my legal team said I should phrase it that the posts "were deleted" without implicating anyone...

h/t @hillaryclinton
Grab that username
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Offline S209

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Re: Demographics Trump Is Polling Badly In
« Reply #7 on: October 15, 2020, 11:29:40 PM »
Quote from: PlatinumGuy on October 15, 2020, 08:56:43 PM
Seniors - more impacted by Covid and blaming Trump for it, and offended by his Biden Hiden' rhetoric which they take personally as similarly diminishing humans.
I think this is as big a thing as everything else combined. I bet the senior vote (which is a quarter of the electorate) will lean strongly Biden after going 53-44 Trump in 2016.

Source:


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Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Demographics Trump Is Polling Badly In
« Reply #8 on: October 15, 2020, 11:39:58 PM »
Quote from: S209 on October 15, 2020, 11:29:40 PM
I think this is as big a thing as everything else combined. I bet the senior vote (which is a quarter of the electorate) will lean strongly Biden after going 53-44 Trump in 2016.

Source:
Do you agree with my explanations? If I’m right, his primary campaign theme of attacking Biden’s frailty will cost him the election
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Re: Demographics Trump Is Polling Badly In
« Reply #9 on: October 15, 2020, 11:40:58 PM »
Quote from: S209 on October 15, 2020, 11:25:13 PM
Grab that username
I'll stay far away from it. I'd rather remain alive than to step on her toes...
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Offline Lurker

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Re: Demographics Trump Is Polling Badly In
« Reply #10 on: October 15, 2020, 11:43:08 PM »
Quote from: S209 on October 15, 2020, 11:29:40 PM
I think this is as big a thing as everything else combined. I bet the senior vote (which is a quarter of the electorate) will lean strongly Biden after going 53-44 Trump in 2016.

Chatter is they are still leaning Trump in FL.
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Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Demographics Trump Is Polling Badly In
« Reply #11 on: October 15, 2020, 11:47:35 PM »
Trump will probably win Florida but it’s because Biden isn’t doing well with Hispanics. The problem is Trump can’t win without Florida, and Biden doesn’t need Florida at all
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Offline justaregularguy

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Re: Demographics Trump Is Polling Badly In
« Reply #12 on: October 15, 2020, 11:49:16 PM »
Quote from: PlatinumGuy on October 15, 2020, 11:47:35 PM
Trump will probably win Florida but it’s because Biden isn’t doing well with Hispanics. The problem is Trump can’t win without Florida, and Biden doesn’t need Florida at all
the big push right now is PA. Both candidates are pouring $ into PA.
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Re: Demographics Trump Is Polling Badly In
« Reply #13 on: October 15, 2020, 11:51:46 PM »
Quote from: justaregularguy on October 15, 2020, 11:49:16 PM
the big push right now is PA. Both candidates are pouring $ into PA.
That’s because PA has early voting open with a democrat governor, so the vote is being decided as we speak (unlike Georgia where the Republican governor is screwing up the ballots). Again though, it’s nearly impossible for Trump to win without PA, but Biden easily can (MI WI AZ)
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Offline justaregularguy

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Re: Demographics Trump Is Polling Badly In
« Reply #14 on: October 15, 2020, 11:57:16 PM »
Quote from: PlatinumGuy on October 15, 2020, 11:51:46 PM
That’s because PA has early voting open with a democrat governor, so the vote is being decided as we speak (unlike Georgia where the Republican governor is screwing up the ballots). Again though, it’s nearly impossible for Trump to win without PA, but Biden easily can (MI WI AZ)
if Biden can easily win wo PA y is he spending 19 mil in the state?
Anyway, an article said if Biden wins PA he has a 96% chance of winning president and if trump wins PA he has an 86% chance to win
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Re: Demographics Trump Is Polling Badly In
« Reply #15 on: October 15, 2020, 11:58:31 PM »
Quote from: justaregularguy on October 15, 2020, 11:57:16 PM
if Biden can easily win wo PA y is he spending 19 mil in the state?
He has $400m cash, where else should he spend it?
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Offline justaregularguy

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Re: Demographics Trump Is Polling Badly In
« Reply #16 on: October 16, 2020, 12:03:44 AM »
Quote from: PlatinumGuy on October 15, 2020, 11:58:31 PM
He has $400m cash, where else should he spend it?
texas
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Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Demographics Trump Is Polling Badly In
« Reply #17 on: October 16, 2020, 12:04:42 AM »
Quote from: justaregularguy on October 16, 2020, 12:03:44 AM
texas
Too much of a moonshot, although I think he’ll win it
Texas is also infinitely more expensive to advertise in than PA.
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Re: Demographics Trump Is Polling Badly In
« Reply #18 on: October 16, 2020, 12:20:33 AM »
Quote from: justaregularguy on October 15, 2020, 11:57:16 PM
if Biden can easily win wo PA y is he spending 19 mil in the state?
Anyway, an article said if Biden wins PA he has a 96% chance of winning president and if trump wins PA he has an 86% chance to win
Btw, you don't have to take my word for it - if Biden keeps 2016 D states + Arizona, Michigan, & Wisconsin, all of which are polling strongly D, he's already at a tie. Add in Iowa, Ohio, PA, FL, Georgia, & North Carolina all of which Biden still has a good chance of winning.

The only 2016 D states that are at all contested are NM, CO, NV, NH all of which are polling strong D
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Offline S209

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Re: Demographics Trump Is Polling Badly In
« Reply #19 on: October 16, 2020, 12:20:50 AM »
Quote from: PlatinumGuy on October 15, 2020, 11:39:58 PM
Do you agree with my explanations? If I’m right, his primary campaign theme of attacking Biden’s frailty will cost him the election
Yes, it was a very stupid move. Also, playing up Biden’s “dementia” cost him big when voters got to see them face to face.
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