https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/here-s-how-trump-underperforming-2016-n1044256So not surprisingly, Trump is underperforming in our poll among almost all subgroups from the exit poll in 2016, when he took 46 percent of the popular vote.
Here’s the breakdown:
Men: Trump +8 points in the NBC/WSJ poll (was +11 in the 2016 exit poll)
Women: -32 points (was -13)
Whites: +5 (was +20)
African Americans: -84 (was -81)
Latinos: -36 (was -38)
Independents: -19 (was +4)
Whites with college degrees: -19 (was +3)
Whites without college degrees: +18 (was +37)
Of course, Trump won’t be facing a generic Democrat next year. Plus, this is among all registered voters, not likely voters.
If every single person who votes for Trump in 2016 votes for Trump in 2020, but nobody else does, he will lose by more than 20%. There are already 25m voters who voted in 2020 and didn't vote in 2016.
I have an easy time seeing people who didn't vote in 2016 being more enthusiastic about Biden in 2020. It's very evident amongst democratic leaning subgroups in Texas.
Trump needs many people who didn't vote in 2016, or voted for HRC, to vote for him now.
Who can they be?
-Newly eligible to vote: Young & immigrants are both 2:1 D
-Republican leaning Never Trumpers who are now more comfortable with him - are they going to be enthusiastic enough to turn out?
-His standard base (50yo white MAGA men) who were too lazy to vote in 2016 but feel more is at risk this time - this is whom the rallies & tweeting are for
-His standard base who who were too lazy to vote in 2016 because they believed the MSM that he had no chance - how enthusiastic are they to turn out on ED?
-His standard base who who were too lazy to vote in 2016 but have more time on their hands with Covid - they are voting early
Any other profiles?
