2020 Voter Turnout

[PlatinumGuy]

Correct me if I'm mistaken - Alaska, Vermont, North Dakota and Wyoming already have more early votes than the total 2016 turnout?

Harris County, TX has record turnout as does Georgia

[YitzyS]

I'm starting to think that @PlatinumGuy is a Russian bot 

[justaregularguy]

Correct me if I'm mistaken - Alaska, Vermont, North Dakota and Wyoming already have more early votes than the total 2016 turnout?

Harris County, TX has record turnout as does Georgia

I did read there are huge lines to vote early in some places that is unexpected . 
I’m glad the trump supporters are energized 

[PlatinumGuy]

I’m glad the trump supporters are energized 

@QuinnipiacPoll's Georgia numbers by voting method are pretty vertigo-inducing:

Early in-person (39%): Biden 57%, Trump 39%
Mail ballot (30%): Biden 71%, Trump 22%
Election Day (31%): Trump 71%, Biden 26%

[zh cohen]

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/early-voting-data-in-battleground-states-shows-trump-outpacing-national-polls-giving-biden-an-edge

Especially relevant given the polls that show Biden supporters are more likely to vote early than Trump supporters.

Also, lots of polls show that there is very little crossover from either party.

[PlatinumGuy]

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/early-voting-data-in-battleground-states-shows-trump-outpacing-national-polls-giving-biden-an-edge

Especially relevant given the polls that show Biden supporters are more likely to vote early than Trump supporters.

Also, lots of polls show that there is very little crossover from either party.

I wonder how reliable the data is. It would indicate Trump winning MI, WI, & OH but losing FL, NC, & PA, which is very strange. The spreads are also huge.

[zh cohen]

I wonder how reliable the data is. It would indicate Trump winning MI, WI, & OH but losing FL, NC, & PA, which is very strange. The spreads are also huge.

How does it show that? Historically Democrats have had huge advantages in early voting (certainly in FL), something that will be even more this year when Democrats have been pushing early voting and Trump has been talking it down.

[PlatinumGuy]

How does it show that? Historically Democrats have had huge advantages in early voting (certainly in FL), something that will be even more this year when Democrats have been pushing early voting and Trump has been talking it down.

Obviously it's not conclusive evidence, but assuming Republicans in PA are as likely to vote early as they are in WI, MI, & OH, it would indicate there are proportionally far less R voters in PA. In truth the spread is too large and there must be a better explanation.

Florida numbers are only mail-in, since in-person didn't open yet so I understand why the numbers are more skewed D, but PA is a mystery to me.

[zh cohen]

Obviously it's not conclusive evidence, but assuming Republicans in PA are as likely to vote early as they are in WI, MI, & OH, it would indicate there are proportionally far less R voters in PA. In truth the spread is too large and there must be a better explanation.

Florida numbers are only mail-in, since in-person didn't open yet so I understand why the numbers are more skewed D, but PA is a mystery to me.

WI, MI and OH sent ballot request forms to all registered voters. PA didn't.

[PlatinumGuy]

WI, MI and OH sent ballot request forms to all registered voters. PA didn't.

Ah, thanks

[zh cohen]

Ah, thanks

All the data is coming from here - https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/north-carolina-results

You can check any state there

[PlatinumGuy]

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/early-voting-data-in-battleground-states-shows-trump-outpacing-national-polls-giving-biden-an-edge

Especially relevant given the polls that show Biden supporters are more likely to vote early than Trump supporters.

Also, lots of polls show that there is very little crossover from either party.

I suspect a lot of the data on early voting is skewed R, because Ds voting early are doing it by mail as opposed to in-person so it didn’t show up in the data yet.

Democrats have had huge advantages in early voting (certainly in FL), something that will be even more this year when Democrats have been pushing early voting and Trump has been talking it down.

Trump is making a huge mistake with this. Defending his ego in case he loses that it wasn’t a fair race, but entirely conceding the early voting field. 27M+ people voted already

[zh cohen]

I suspect a lot of the data on early voting is skewed R, because Ds voting early are doing it by mail as opposed to in-person so it didn’t show up in the data yet.

Of the three states that things are even in (WI, OH and MI) only OH has started in person early voting.

ETA: On the NBC link I posted you can see what percentage of the votes already cast were mail-in vs early in person.

[zh cohen]

Republicans seem to be slowly closing the gap in PA, NC and FL over the past 5 days.

NC - Was 51D-18R Now 46D-25R
PA - Was 77D- 15R Now 75D-17R
FL - Was 51D-29R Now 49D-30R

[skyguy918]

Trump is making a huge mistake with this. Defending his ego in case he loses that it wasn’t a fair race, but entirely conceding the early voting field. 27M+ people voted already

Interesting take - the most prominent media interpretation of a lot of his actions in this race has been that he's setting himself up to challenge the results of the election, and not concede power - which TBH is really not far-fetched given his behavior. But your take that it's all about being able to claim later that he was robbed, even as he relinquishes power, is interesting. It's utterly insane, since as you pointed out, he basically spent tons of energy/money on that instead of on trying to win, but it's certainly a potential explanation.

[PlatinumGuy]

Interesting take - the most prominent media interpretation of a lot of his actions in this race has been that he's setting himself up to challenge the results of the election, and not concede power - which TBH is really not far-fetched given his behavior. But your take that it's all about being able to claim later that he was robbed, even as he relinquishes power, is interesting. It's utterly insane, since as you pointed out, he basically spent tons of energy/money on that instead of on trying to win, but it's certainly a potential explanation.

I'm sure he would try not to relinquish power, but it so far from working that he won't even try. There are very few armed people in DC who won't follow SCOTUS ruling, and SCOTUS won't allow any ambiguity. 

[zh cohen]

I'm sure he would try not to relinquish power,

Based on what are you sure?

[PlatinumGuy]

Based on what are you sure?

As sure as one can be based on perception of his character.

[aygart]

As sure as one can be based on perception of his character.

So basically the whole thing is something which won't happen anyhow and the whole thing is only a figment of imagination about what may happen if whatever whatever. Gotit.

[zh cohen]

Correct me if I'm mistaken - Alaska, Vermont, North Dakota and Wyoming already have more early votes than the total 2016 turnout?

You are wrong. What gave you that impression?

Alaska -
2016 - 318,608 votes
2020 so far - 31,213

Vermont -
2016 - 320,467
2020 so far- 132,720

North Dakota -
2016 - 349,945
2020 so far - 86,935

Wyoming -
2016 - 258,788
2020 so far - 63,539