Author Topic: 2020 Voter Turnout (Read 30430 times)

PlatinumGuy · « **Reply #200 on:** October 29, 2020, 11:40:07 PM »

Quote from: justaregularguy on October 29, 2020, 11:10:44 PM

and Latino support is higher than 2016 and the African American population is higher as well. So we have a battle

Nationally Trump is up 2% in latinos and down around 5% in AA. In Florida the latino numbers are different bc of Cuban Americans and there are huge differences between the polls.

justaregularguy · « **Reply #201 on:** October 30, 2020, 12:11:44 AM »

Quote from: PlatinumGuy on October 29, 2020, 11:40:07 PM

Nationally Trump is up 2% in latinos and down around 5% in AA. In Florida the latino numbers are different bc of Cuban Americans and there are huge differences between the polls.

it’s more important to be up in fl than in other not so needed (electoral numbers ) states.
African American support was 8% in 16’ and is at 23% now

PlatinumGuy · « **Reply #202 on:** October 30, 2020, 12:15:06 AM »

Quote from: justaregularguy on October 30, 2020, 12:11:44 AM

it’s more important to be up in fl than in other not so needed (electoral numbers ) states.
African American support was 8% in 16’ and is at 23% now

Source?

avromie7 · « **Reply #203 on:** October 30, 2020, 12:15:40 AM »

Quote from: PlatinumGuy on October 29, 2020, 11:40:07 PM

Nationally Trump is up 2% in latinos and down around 5% in AA. In Florida the latino numbers are different bc of Cuban Americans and there are huge differences between the polls.

Where do you pull these numbers from?

PlatinumGuy · « **Reply #204 on:** October 30, 2020, 12:17:56 AM »

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1322029481524121600?s=21

Still not up to 2016 percentage though, eligible voterbase grew a lot

PlatinumGuy · « **Reply #205 on:** October 30, 2020, 12:20:35 AM »

Quote from: avromie7 on October 30, 2020, 12:15:40 AM

Where do you pull these numbers from?

Believe it or not I actually trust data more than emotion.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/here-s-how-trump-underperforming-2016-n1044256

Quote

So not surprisingly, Trump is underperforming in our poll among almost all subgroups from the exit poll in 2016, when he took 46 percent of the popular vote.

Here’s the breakdown:

Men: Trump +8 points in the NBC/WSJ poll (was +11 in the 2016 exit poll)
Women: -32 points (was -13)
Whites: +5 (was +20)
African Americans: -84 (was -81)
Latinos: -36 (was -38)
Independents: -19 (was +4)
Whites with college degrees: -19 (was +3)
Whites without college degrees: +18 (was +37)
Of course, Trump won’t be facing a generic Democrat next year. Plus, this is among all registered voters, not likely voters.

Lurker · « **Reply #206 on:** October 30, 2020, 12:23:44 AM »

Quote from: PlatinumGuy on October 30, 2020, 12:20:35 AM

Believe it or not I actually trust data more than emotion.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/here-s-how-trump-underperforming-2016-n1044256

I feel lost here... why are you posting numbers from 2019 for Trump vs an undetermined Dem opponent?

PlatinumGuy · « **Reply #207 on:** October 30, 2020, 12:25:39 AM »

Quote from: Lurker on October 30, 2020, 12:23:44 AM

I feel lost here... why are you posting numbers from 2019 for Trump vs an undetermined Dem opponent?

I didn’t realize it was that old. The trend is reliable either way. Have later data?

justaregularguy · « **Reply #208 on:** October 30, 2020, 12:36:34 AM »

Quote from: PlatinumGuy on October 30, 2020, 12:15:06 AM

Source?

Fox News
Sorry don’t have link but I didn’t pull these numbers out of a hat

avromie7 · « **Reply #209 on:** October 30, 2020, 12:41:29 AM »

Quote from: PlatinumGuy on October 30, 2020, 12:20:35 AM

Believe it or not I actually trust data more than emotion.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/here-s-how-trump-underperforming-2016-n1044256

Your track record says you twist the data to say what you want it to say.

AsherO · « **Reply #210 on:** October 30, 2020, 12:44:40 AM »

Quote from: avromie7 on October 30, 2020, 12:41:29 AM

Your track record says you twist the data to say what you want it to say.

Not sure which euphemism is more appropriate here, pot calling the kettle black or not throwing rocks in glass houses...

avromie7 · « **Reply #211 on:** October 30, 2020, 12:47:10 AM »

Quote from: AsherO on October 30, 2020, 12:44:40 AM

Not sure which euphemism is more appropriate here, pot calling the kettle black or not throwing rocks in glass houses...

I'm the guy who questions if the "data" is really saying what you say it does, he brings "proof" by twisting the data to say what he wants it to say. Let me know if you see the difference.

PlatinumGuy · « **Reply #212 on:** October 30, 2020, 12:55:01 AM »

Quote from: avromie7 on October 30, 2020, 12:41:29 AM

Your track record says you twist the data to say what you want it to say.

Sounds like you can’t argue on the merits.

YitzyS · « **Reply #213 on:** October 30, 2020, 01:16:26 AM »

Quote from: AsherO on October 30, 2020, 12:44:40 AM

Not sure which euphemism is more appropriate here, pot calling the kettle black or not throwing rocks in glass houses...

I feel like this post has a lot of potential for a real witty response, and we just have to wait for @Yehuda57 or @Chaikel to come along with it and get about 15 likes.

PlatinumGuy · « **Reply #214 on:** October 30, 2020, 01:54:18 AM »

Quote from: Lurker on October 30, 2020, 12:23:44 AM

I feel lost here... why are you posting numbers from 2019 for Trump vs an undetermined Dem opponent?

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1321945814877556741?s=21

Similar numbers hot off the press - down 1% in AA up 6% in Latinos

aygart · « **Reply #215 on:** October 30, 2020, 09:15:09 AM »

Quote from: PlatinumGuy on October 30, 2020, 12:20:35 AM

Believe it or not I actually trust data more than emotion.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/here-s-how-trump-underperforming-2016-n1044256

Your relationship with data is a mirror image of the Trumpsters.

CountValentine · « **Reply #216 on:** October 30, 2020, 09:17:56 AM »

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/positive-trump-polls-spark-polling-circle-debate/ar-BB1axkuL?li=BBnb7Kz

YitzyS · « **Reply #217 on:** October 30, 2020, 10:50:32 AM »

I created a thread about the specific polls. Can anyone weigh in?
https://forums.dansdeals.com/index.php?topic=120840.msg2346120#msg2346120

PlatinumGuy · « **Reply #218 on:** October 30, 2020, 02:41:58 PM »

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1322160084651266048?s=21

PlatinumGuy · « **Reply #219 on:** October 30, 2020, 02:47:24 PM »

https://twitter.com/patricksvitek/status/1322065579818340352?s=21