2020 Voter Turnout

[PlatinumGuy]

You are wrong. What gave you that impression?

I misread an article. Apologies

But it appears apparent there will be record turnout this year. Conventional wisdom means it’s good for Dems, but I think the number will be so far off the charts there is no way to really know.

[PlatinumGuy]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1318605291173384201?s=21

[Ergel]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1318605291173384201?s=21

Bad news for Trump

[avromie7]

Bad news for Trump

Of course more young people voted by mail. For example, in NJ there main way to vote is by mail, you can't compare current early voting results to previous early voting results.

[Toasted]

Bad news for Trump

Big tech did/does an awesome job nudging you to register/vote. Assuming they're motivated to help the d's. Every time you open google, outlook, uber, twitter etc. they're constantly reminding you.

[PlatinumGuy]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1318180016786726914?s=24

Of course more young people voted by mail. For example, in NJ there main way to vote is by mail, you can't compare current early voting results to previous early voting results.

But why is the ratio of young voters larger than in 2016? The other voters in NJ should also be voting by mail.

[avromie7]

But why is the ratio of young voters larger than in 2016? The other voters in NJ should also be voting by mail.

Because in a normal year they would be voting in person.

[PlatinumGuy]

Because in a normal year they would be voting in person.

But old people who are normally voting in person are also voting early this year.

[avromie7]

But old people who are normally voting in person are also voting early this year.

So the early voting stats should be compared to all voting in any previous year.

[zh cohen]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1318180016786726914?s=24

Is that gap between the number of male/female voters any different than in a typical year?

[PlatinumGuy]

So the early voting stats should be compared to all voting in any previous year.

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1318606087319375873?s=20

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1317921002421166080?s=20

I rest my case.

Is that gap between the number of male/female voters any different than in a typical year?

Yes 2016 M/F was 52/46 and 2020 thus far 54/44

[Lurker]

/twitter.com/tbonier/status/1318606087319375873?s=20

twitter.com/tbonier/status/1317921002421166080?s=20

A) 33% of the 18-30 demo wasn't eligible to vote 4 years ago
B) Voter participation will be up in every demo. 2016 was the lowest in 20 years.

[PlatinumGuy]

A) 33% of the 18-30 demo wasn't eligible to vote 4 years ago
B) Voter participation will be up in every demo. 2016 was the lowest in 20 years.

Even after that, 30% of 2020 early young voters could’ve voted in 2016 & didn’t.

Agreed. 2020 will be record highs. Of the 30m people who already voted, 6m didn’t vote in 2016

[PlatinumGuy]

https://twitter.com/houtopia/status/1319000540756516864?s=21

[YitzyS]

There is an almost infinite number of ways to interpret numbers. There is demographics, early in-person voters, mail-in-votes, county breakdowns, and so much more. These various perspectives put forth by @PlatinumGuy seem sound, but so do the interpretations put forth by Republican pundits and media outlets.

Yes, there are indicators both ways, with polls being the simplest. But even thought there are many indicators posted here to show that Biden is winning in a landslide, there are many indicators that counter that narrative.

I'm not saying Trump is going to win. My personal projection is that Biden has the edge. But if Trump does win, I don't want anyone reading this thread to be too shocked.

[PlatinumGuy]

Republicans seem to be slowly closing the gap in PA, NC and FL over the past 5 days.

NC - Was 51D-18R Now 46D-25R
PA - Was 77D- 15R Now 75D-17R
FL - Was 51D-29R Now 49D-30R

https://twitter.com/dataprogress/status/1318361718528135168?s=21

Among TX voters who already voted, 11% of Registered Rs say they voted Biden. 0% of registered Ds voted Trump. We are looking at a landslide of epic proportions. Biden may win 40+ states & have a large lead in TX. Trump will probably make some campaign stops in TX now.

[zh cohen]

Among TX voters who already voted, 11% of Registered Rs say they voted Biden. 0% of registered Ds voted Trump.

Either their top line numbers for people who already voted is wrong, or their crossover numbers is off.

Looking at the actual number of who already voted by party, (as seen here - https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/texas-results ) and dividing them up based on their results (giving Biden 99% of Ds, 63% of Is and 11% of Rs) would mean that Biden is leading Trump among early voters 51-49. They show him leading amongst those who voted by 57-42.

[PlatinumGuy]

Either their top line numbers for people who already voted is wrong, or their crossover numbers is off.

Looking at the actual number of who already voted by party, (as seen here - https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/texas-results ) and dividing them up based on their results (giving Biden 99% of Ds, 63% of Is and 11% of Rs) would mean that Biden is leading Trump among early voters 51-49. They show him leading amongst those who voted by 57-42.

Agreed. It's a survey of 180 people so only that reliable. It's also Oct 15-18 so the NBC dashboard could be reflecting a progressively larger R turnout.

However, the I think it's enough to establish Biden is getting 100% of the early Democrat vote, but Trump isn't getting 100% of the early R vote. Interestingly enough, their survey of voters who didn't vote yet gives Trump 7% of the D and only 5% of the R for Biden.

[zh cohen]

However, the I think it's enough to establish Biden is getting 100% of the early Democrat vote, but Trump isn't getting 100% of the early R vote.

Why? Haven't pretty much all polls shown both candidates getting almost complete support from their party? (IIRC, Trump was getting slightly higher support from Rs than Biden was getting from Ds)

Also, any idea who these pollsters are? From the name they seem to be partisan.
ETA: 538 gives them a B- for what it's worth

[BP16]

https://twitter.com/dataprogress/status/1318361718528135168?s=21

Among TX voters who already voted, 11% of Registered Rs say they voted Biden. 0% of registered Ds voted Trump. We are looking at a landslide of epic proportions. Biden may win 40+ states & have a large lead in TX. Trump will probably make some campaign stops in TX now.

Maybe if its that close why wouldn't Biden go there? He should Just campaign there because if he wins TX then he could lose FL PA AZ NC MI WI and still win.
I guess they know they have a 0 chance in TX.