Author Topic: 2020 Voter Turnout (Read 30422 times)

yuneeq · « **Reply #120 on:** October 28, 2020, 06:03:12 PM »

Quote from: PlatinumGuy on October 28, 2020, 04:23:56 PM

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1321542576504188928?s=21 Thank you

Pretty cool that Trump finally convinced college-educated whites to vote for him.

PlatinumGuy · « **Reply #121 on:** October 28, 2020, 06:33:23 PM »

Quote from: yuneeq on October 28, 2020, 06:03:12 PM

Pretty cool that Trump finally convinced college-educated whites to vote for him.

Even more amazing is that he managed to do that without convincing their less educated peers to do the same

zh cohen · « **Reply #122 on:** October 28, 2020, 07:15:23 PM »

Quote from: aygart on October 28, 2020, 02:59:57 PM

The polls were actually VERY accurate in 2016. Hillary won the popular vote by a margin very in line with polls.

This point is more relevant to those claiming (based on polls) that there is no chance Trump wins.

zh cohen · « **Reply #123 on:** October 28, 2020, 08:25:30 PM »

https://joeisdone.github.io/northcarolina/

Some interesting data from NC. For example Democrats have already turned out 111.51% of their 2016 early voting totals. Republicans have turned out 111.02% of their 2016 EV totals...

YitzyS · « **Reply #124 on:** October 28, 2020, 08:55:43 PM »

Quote from: PlatinumGuy on October 28, 2020, 02:04:13 PM

I’m getting more and more convinced Election Day turnout will be underwhelming. The super enthusiastic people will vote early. When push comes to shove, there will be unusually long line because of Covid + people will be more concerned about Covid exposure than they’re admitting now + undecided may stay that way with 2 really bad candidates

This has been my opinion all along, which is why I made this prediction:

Quote from: YitzyS on October 12, 2020, 12:56:05 AM

I think that Biden will win the election, but Trump will still find technicalities to bring to court, and the court will rule against him.

PlatinumGuy · « **Reply #125 on:** October 28, 2020, 09:01:14 PM »

Quote from: YitzyS on October 28, 2020, 08:55:43 PM

This has been my opinion all along, which is why I made this prediction:

The court has a very narrow spectrum of decisions. It’s likely to be way more decisive.

PlatinumGuy · « **Reply #126 on:** October 28, 2020, 10:17:25 PM »

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1321623063365111809?s=21

PlatinumGuy · « **Reply #127 on:** October 28, 2020, 10:28:18 PM »

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1321626995525115905?s=21

good sam · « **Reply #128 on:** October 28, 2020, 10:31:40 PM »

Quote from: PlatinumGuy on October 28, 2020, 05:24:41 PM

I’m far from 100% certain that Biden will win Texas, though I think he will

Are you 100% certain that Biden will win the election?

PlatinumGuy · « **Reply #129 on:** October 28, 2020, 10:37:53 PM »

Quote from: good sam on October 28, 2020, 10:31:40 PM

Are you 100% certain that Biden will win the election?

99%
As sure as I am that there will be a Covid vaccine

avromie7 · « **Reply #130 on:** October 29, 2020, 11:41:28 AM »

Quote from: avromie7 on October 28, 2020, 11:39:53 AM

Update -
NC - 40D-30R
PA - 69D-21R
FL - 42D-37R

Update -
NC - 39D-31R
PA - 68D-22R
FL - 41D-38R

YitzyS · « **Reply #131 on:** October 29, 2020, 11:56:36 AM »

Quote from: avromie7 on October 29, 2020, 11:41:28 AM

Update -
NC - 39D-31R
PA - 68D-22R
FL - 41D-38R

If we keep these numbers up, the Trump will win in 2024.

PlatinumGuy · « **Reply #132 on:** October 29, 2020, 12:14:30 PM »

Quote from: YitzyS on October 29, 2020, 11:56:36 AM

If we keep these numbers up, the Trump will win in 2024.

Very possible IMO

BP16 · « **Reply #133 on:** October 29, 2020, 12:29:57 PM »

Quote from: YitzyS on October 29, 2020, 11:56:36 AM

If we keep these numbers up, the Trump will win in 2024.

I think the Ds need a huge or very large advantage with early voting to really win a swing states because Rs will come in large #s on election day.

biobook · « **Reply #134 on:** October 29, 2020, 12:58:21 PM »

Does this refer to votes received from registered D/R, or votes for the D/R candidate? That is, does it indicate Ds who vote Trump and Rs who vote Biden?

BP16 · « **Reply #135 on:** October 29, 2020, 01:02:33 PM »

Quote from: biobook on October 29, 2020, 12:58:21 PM

Does this refer to votes received from registered D/R, or votes for the D/R candidate? That is, does it indicate Ds who vote Trump and Rs who vote Biden?

This is just registered votes, for whom will come when polls close

PlatinumGuy · « **Reply #136 on:** October 29, 2020, 01:13:11 PM »

Quote from: biobook on October 29, 2020, 12:58:21 PM

That is, does it indicate Ds who vote Trump and Rs who vote Biden?

No. There is also a theory that D voters are less likely to register than R.

avromie7 · « **Reply #137 on:** October 29, 2020, 01:15:39 PM »

Quote from: BP16 on October 29, 2020, 12:29:57 PM

I think the Ds need a huge or very large advantage with early voting to really win a swing states because Rs will come in large #s on election day.

If you look at each of these 3 states they really don't have that.

PA is only releasing mail in data, not in person early voting. It's currently around 25% of the 2016 turnout, so even this huge D lead is pretty meaningless.

In FL, as mail in makes up a smaller percentage of ballots cast, the D lead continues to shrink.

The SC numbers disappeared, so I can't look back at it now.

avromie7 · « **Reply #138 on:** October 29, 2020, 01:16:40 PM »

Quote from: PlatinumGuy on October 29, 2020, 01:13:11 PM

No. There is also a theory that D voters are less likely to register than R.

Source for that theory? I've never seen evidence to indicate either way.

KSMH · « **Reply #139 on:** October 29, 2020, 01:24:36 PM »

Quote from: avromie7 on October 29, 2020, 01:15:39 PM

If you look at each of these 3 states they really don't have that.

PA is only releasing mail in data, not in person early voting. It's currently around 25% of the 2016 turnout, so even this huge D lead is pretty meaningless.

In FL, as mail in makes up a smaller percentage of ballots cast, the D lead continues to shrink.

The SC numbers disappeared, so I can't look back at it now.

https://twitter.com/LarrySchweikart/status/1321860342507479041

Overall Rs doing great in FL.

I would be in no surprise if the big T wins overall.

I think this tweet below highlights what many are missing.

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1321854398503464960?s=20