Author Topic: 2020 Voter Turnout  (Read 29638 times)

Offline zh cohen

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Dec 2013
  • Posts: 1501
  • Total likes: 1677
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 1
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Location: 412
Re: 2020 Voter Turnout
« Reply #260 on: November 01, 2020, 09:55:54 PM »
-New Square, NY- The village board today unanimously endorsed president Trump In 2016 skver chasidim voted 95% for Hillary Clinton. Signs posted said to have hakoras hatov for echad machasidei umos haolam.

I believe that Moshe Margereten (of First Step Act fame) is a Skverer chossid

Online YitzyS

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *********
  • Join Date: Jan 2015
  • Posts: 5552
  • Total likes: 13698
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 34
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Location: Lakewood, NJ
Re: 2020 Voter Turnout
« Reply #261 on: November 01, 2020, 11:42:19 PM »
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/im-here-to-remind-you-that-trump-can-still-win/

So let’s state a few basic facts: The reasons that President Trump’s chances in our forecast are about 10 percent and not zero:

As in 2016, Trump could potentially benefit from the Electoral College. Projected margins in the tipping-point states are considerably tighter than the margins in the national popular vote.
More specifically, Joe Biden’s lead in Pennsylvania — the most likely tipping-point state, according to our forecast — is solid but not spectacular: about 5 points in our polling average.
Without Pennsylvania, Biden does have some paths to victory, but there’s no one alternative state he can feel especially secure about.
While a lot of theories about why Trump can win (e.g., those about “shy” Trump voters) are probably wrong, systematic polling errors do occur, and it’s hard to predict them ahead of time or to anticipate the reasons in advance.
There is some chance that Trump could “win” illegitimately. To a large extent, these scenarios are beyond the scope of our forecast.
There’s also some chance of a recount (about 4 percent) or an Electoral College tie (around 0.5 percent), according to our forecast.
Before we proceed further, a short philosophical note. I hate it when people use phrases — to be fair, we often use phrases like these ourselves! — such as “Nate Silver is giving Biden a 90 percent chance” or “FiveThirtyEight still gives Trump a 10 percent chance.” We aren’t giving anybody anything. Instead, as former FiveThirtyEight politics host Jody Avrigan puts it, what we’re doing is “mapping uncertainty.” In other words, if Biden leads by about 9 points in national polls, 8 points in Wisconsin, 5 points in Pennsylvania, 2 points in Florida, etc., how does that translate into a probability of victory? That’s what our model is trying to figure out.

Offline PlatinumGuy

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Apr 2011
  • Posts: 14958
  • Total likes: 2421
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 11
    • View Profile
Re: 2020 Voter Turnout
« Reply #262 on: November 01, 2020, 11:56:53 PM »
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/im-here-to-remind-you-that-trump-can-still-win/

So let’s state a few basic facts: The reasons that President Trump’s chances in our forecast are about 10 percent and not zero:

As in 2016, Trump could potentially benefit from the Electoral College. Projected margins in the tipping-point states are considerably tighter than the margins in the national popular vote.
More specifically, Joe Biden’s lead in Pennsylvania — the most likely tipping-point state, according to our forecast — is solid but not spectacular: about 5 points in our polling average.
Without Pennsylvania, Biden does have some paths to victory, but there’s no one alternative state he can feel especially secure about.
While a lot of theories about why Trump can win (e.g., those about “shy” Trump voters) are probably wrong, systematic polling errors do occur, and it’s hard to predict them ahead of time or to anticipate the reasons in advance.
There is some chance that Trump could “win” illegitimately. To a large extent, these scenarios are beyond the scope of our forecast.
There’s also some chance of a recount (about 4 percent) or an Electoral College tie (around 0.5 percent), according to our forecast.
Before we proceed further, a short philosophical note. I hate it when people use phrases — to be fair, we often use phrases like these ourselves! — such as “Nate Silver is giving Biden a 90 percent chance” or “FiveThirtyEight still gives Trump a 10 percent chance.” We aren’t giving anybody anything. Instead, as former FiveThirtyEight politics host Jody Avrigan puts it, what we’re doing is “mapping uncertainty.” In other words, if Biden leads by about 9 points in national polls, 8 points in Wisconsin, 5 points in Pennsylvania, 2 points in Florida, etc., how does that translate into a probability of victory? That’s what our model is trying to figure out.
https://twitter.com/realcarlallen/status/1323077573425979401?s=21

I'm convinced the pollsters are erring towards Trump (factoring in +3% turnout of non-college educated 44-65 whites), and the landslide will be even bigger to Biden
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Online YitzyS

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *********
  • Join Date: Jan 2015
  • Posts: 5552
  • Total likes: 13698
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 34
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Location: Lakewood, NJ
Re: 2020 Voter Turnout
« Reply #263 on: November 01, 2020, 11:58:47 PM »
Go on Fivethirtyeight.com now and all you will see is his reminders that polls can be off and that Trump can still win and that he's not wrong if Trump wins and that you should still trust him next time.

Offline chinagel

  • Dansdeals Presidential Platinum Elite
  • ********
  • Join Date: Mar 2014
  • Posts: 3863
  • Total likes: 388
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 1
    • View Profile
  • Location: brooklyn
Re: 2020 Voter Turnout
« Reply #264 on: November 01, 2020, 11:59:54 PM »
Go on Fivethirtyeight.com now and all you will see is his reminders that polls can be off and that Trump can still win and that he's not wrong if Trump wins and that you should still trust him next time.
Love this summary.

Offline PlatinumGuy

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Apr 2011
  • Posts: 14958
  • Total likes: 2421
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 11
    • View Profile
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline PlatinumGuy

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Apr 2011
  • Posts: 14958
  • Total likes: 2421
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 11
    • View Profile
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline Mordyk

  • Dansdeals Presidential Platinum Elite
  • ********
  • Join Date: May 2013
  • Posts: 4102
  • Total likes: 1015
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 3
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Programs: Some of this and some of that.
Re: 2020 Voter Turnout
« Reply #267 on: November 02, 2020, 07:45:47 PM »
https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1323369948585099269?s=24
Ok we get the message, you're almost certain Trump is losing.  You can stop bringing all the proof.  We can wait 24 hours (or more) for the results  ;)
#TYH

Offline CountValentine

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Mar 2013
  • Posts: 15791
  • Total likes: 7317
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips -1
  • Gender: Female
    • View Profile
  • Location: Poland - Exiled
  • Programs: DAOTYA, DDF Level 3, 5K Lounge
Re: 2020 Voter Turnout
« Reply #268 on: November 02, 2020, 07:49:38 PM »
Ok we get the message, you're almost certain Trump is losing.  You can stop bringing all the proof.  We can wait 24 hours (or more) for the results  ;)
More info the better!!!
Only on DDF does 24/6 mean 24/5/half/half

Offline Mordyk

  • Dansdeals Presidential Platinum Elite
  • ********
  • Join Date: May 2013
  • Posts: 4102
  • Total likes: 1015
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 3
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Programs: Some of this and some of that.
Re: 2020 Voter Turnout
« Reply #269 on: November 02, 2020, 07:55:54 PM »
More info the better!!!
At this point we don't need speculation.  Let's wait for results. and let's get DDF back to covid discussions instead of politics.  :D
#TYH

Offline CountValentine

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Mar 2013
  • Posts: 15791
  • Total likes: 7317
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips -1
  • Gender: Female
    • View Profile
  • Location: Poland - Exiled
  • Programs: DAOTYA, DDF Level 3, 5K Lounge
Re: 2020 Voter Turnout
« Reply #270 on: November 02, 2020, 07:57:06 PM »
At this point we don't need speculation.  Let's wait for results. and let's get DDF back to covid discussions instead of politics.  :D
You mean like firing one of the leading experts in the field?
Only on DDF does 24/6 mean 24/5/half/half

Offline PlatinumGuy

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Apr 2011
  • Posts: 14958
  • Total likes: 2421
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 11
    • View Profile
Re: 2020 Voter Turnout
« Reply #271 on: November 02, 2020, 07:58:03 PM »
You can stop bringing all the proof
Well, at least we have the first Trumpster who admits outright he doesn't want to see information.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline Mordyk

  • Dansdeals Presidential Platinum Elite
  • ********
  • Join Date: May 2013
  • Posts: 4102
  • Total likes: 1015
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 3
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Programs: Some of this and some of that.
Re: 2020 Voter Turnout
« Reply #272 on: November 02, 2020, 08:00:14 PM »
Well, at least we have the first Trumpster who admits outright he doesn't want to see information.
Not true.  I read it all. I believe in the silent majority. And I still believe Trump will win. And just like 2016 was a shocker, same will be here.  But I'm sick of everyone bringing projections, opinions, and maps that prove their speculation is right.

Offline PlatinumGuy

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Apr 2011
  • Posts: 14958
  • Total likes: 2421
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 11
    • View Profile
Re: 2020 Voter Turnout
« Reply #273 on: November 02, 2020, 10:00:02 PM »
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline CountValentine

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Mar 2013
  • Posts: 15791
  • Total likes: 7317
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips -1
  • Gender: Female
    • View Profile
  • Location: Poland - Exiled
  • Programs: DAOTYA, DDF Level 3, 5K Lounge
Re: 2020 Voter Turnout
« Reply #274 on: November 02, 2020, 10:03:23 PM »
But Trump is winning with the silent majority who aren’t voting
Don't underestimate the uneducated vote.  ;)
Only on DDF does 24/6 mean 24/5/half/half

Offline good sam

  • Dansdeals Presidential Platinum Elite
  • ********
  • Join Date: Jun 2011
  • Posts: 3340
  • Total likes: 558
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 10
    • View Profile
Re: 2020 Voter Turnout
« Reply #275 on: November 02, 2020, 10:09:09 PM »
Don't underestimate the uneducated vote.  ;)
"I love the poorly educated"
If you don't care why would you comment?
HT: DMYD

Offline CountValentine

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Mar 2013
  • Posts: 15791
  • Total likes: 7317
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips -1
  • Gender: Female
    • View Profile
  • Location: Poland - Exiled
  • Programs: DAOTYA, DDF Level 3, 5K Lounge
Re: 2020 Voter Turnout
« Reply #276 on: November 02, 2020, 10:10:08 PM »
"I love the poorly educated"
He doesn't get that vote.
Only on DDF does 24/6 mean 24/5/half/half

Offline PlatinumGuy

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Apr 2011
  • Posts: 14958
  • Total likes: 2421
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 11
    • View Profile
Re: 2020 Voter Turnout
« Reply #277 on: November 03, 2020, 06:28:39 PM »
https://twitter.com/linahidalgotx/status/1323689089812647937?s=21

A 1.7m turnout likely gives Biden Texas. It's happening!
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline Deal Guy

  • Dansdeals Presidential Platinum Elite
  • ********
  • Join Date: Apr 2009
  • Posts: 4957
  • Total likes: 131
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 9
    • View Profile
Re: 2020 Voter Turnout
« Reply #278 on: November 11, 2020, 01:47:24 AM »
Not worth anything at all, but I've been hearing of a lot of registered R's voting Biden. They're pretty pissed at how DeSantis handled Covid, and since he's not on the ballot, they're taking it out on Trump. I'm very curious to see FL's numbers when this is done.
This comment was as biased as all the polls were. :)
What makes you think that people are pissed at Desantis? (To the extent that you felt more were pissed than vice versa, and would affect the vote.)
Of course, people that share your viewpoint on covid, are pissed at him, and that's what biased your thinking to how Florida would vote. There was nothing in the actual voting that backed that up.
Up north, many of us praise him and wish we had a gov like him.
« Last Edit: November 11, 2020, 01:52:49 AM by Deal Guy »

Offline Yehuda57

  • Dansdeals Presidential Platinum Elite
  • ********
  • Join Date: Jan 2014
  • Posts: 4891
  • Total likes: 14686
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 6
    • View Profile
    • Squilled
  • Location: Brooklyn
  • Programs: Official Dansdeals salad correspondent
Re: 2020 Voter Turnout
« Reply #279 on: November 11, 2020, 07:27:37 AM »
https://twitter.com/linahidalgotx/status/1323689089812647937?s=21

A 1.7m turnout likely gives Biden Texas. It's happening!

When do we break out the champagne?