Author Topic: Corona spike after Yom Tov  (Read 6791 times)

Offline Happyguy

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Corona spike after Yom Tov
« on: October 21, 2020, 05:27:28 PM »
Why wasn't there a major spike in cases after Yom Tov esp in EY where there were many places which kept zero social distancing, no masks, indoor minyanim, dancing , kiddushim, big seudos by families etc.

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Re: Corona spike after Yom Tov
« Reply #1 on: October 21, 2020, 06:39:32 PM »
Why wasn't there a major spike in cases after Yom Tov esp in EY where there were many places which kept zero social distancing, no masks, indoor minyanim, dancing , kiddushim, big seudos by families etc.
good question,

Now let the DDF epidemiologist roll their theories in.

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Re: Corona spike after Yom Tov
« Reply #2 on: October 21, 2020, 06:57:53 PM »
The data is anecdotal and far from definitive.

Schools being closed and people staying home from work reduces contacts significantly.

A lot of the visible carelessness is the same people who were careless in the beginning, got it, and are still immune.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline Lurker

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Re: Corona spike after Yom Tov
« Reply #3 on: October 21, 2020, 07:58:58 PM »
Why wasn't there a major spike in cases after Yom Tov esp in EY where there were many places which kept zero social distancing, no masks, indoor minyanim, dancing , kiddushim, big seudos by families etc.

There was a major spike after RH and again after YK. You're asking why there wasn't another major spike after Succos? Presumably because most of those who weren't being careful either got it during the first half of Tishrei, got it during the first wave, or had some other immunity going on. There were still plenty of new cases after Succos, just lower than the highs of the previous 30-45 days.

The points @PlatinumGuy brings up are also very valid, regarding schools and work. We also have to consider that there were plenty of people who were taking the precautions seriously, thereby mitigating the scope of the spread.
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Offline S209

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Re: Corona spike after Yom Tov
« Reply #4 on: October 21, 2020, 10:46:33 PM »
good question,

Now let the DDF epidemiologist roll their theories in.
Because it’s a scamdemic, COVID doesn’t really spread from person to person. Scientists don’t know anything.
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Offline iluv2travel

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Re: Corona spike after Yom Tov
« Reply #5 on: October 22, 2020, 12:23:45 AM »
There was a major spike after RH and again after YK. You're asking why there wasn't another major spike after Succos? Presumably because most of those who weren't being careful either got it during the first half of Tishrei, got it during the first wave, or had some other immunity going on. There were still plenty of new cases after Succos, just lower than the highs of the previous 30-45 days.

Where can I see data showing those major spikes from after RH and YK as well as the high numbers from after Sukkos.

We also have to consider that there were plenty of people who were taking the precautions seriously, thereby mitigating the scope of the spread.
I beg to differ.  It's convenient to blame the spike on the people who didn't take precautions seriously. I hate to break the news, but there are not plenty of people who all of a sudden started doing so. For starters, Simchas Torah was mostly business as usual.

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Re: Corona spike after Yom Tov
« Reply #6 on: October 22, 2020, 12:35:42 AM »
I beg to differ.  It's convenient to blame the spike on the people who didn't take precautions seriously. I hate to break the news, but there are not plenty of people who all of a sudden started doing so. For starters, Simchas Torah was mostly business as usual.
There is n.o shortage of people on this forum alone who were convinced Covid was completely over, and resumed basic precautions once it became evident it's surging.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline iluv2travel

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Re: Corona spike after Yom Tov
« Reply #7 on: October 22, 2020, 12:58:02 AM »
There is n.o shortage of people on this forum alone who were convinced Covid was completely over, and resumed basic precautions once it became evident it's surging.

Kuddos to them for resuming (and I'm saying it seriously). However, even if you will tell me its 100 people or even 500 ppl from this forum, to put it into perspective, there are over 90k ppl living in 11219 78k in 11204, and 84k in 11230 (didn't check the rest). Even 500 is a drop in the bucket. Sorry this forum isn't that popular that you'll be able to tell me it was at least 20k ppl who reversed course.

But this also doesn't address the thousands celebrating Simchas Torah 100% as usual.  Including many Chabad people walking into the red zone areas and dancing in shuls there.

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Re: Corona spike after Yom Tov
« Reply #8 on: October 22, 2020, 01:00:24 AM »
If there are 500 people here, there are 50,000 like them who aren’t here. Jeez. The thousands you see celebrating were mostly already infected.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

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Re: Corona spike after Yom Tov
« Reply #9 on: October 22, 2020, 01:00:57 AM »
Also, no weddings
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline iluv2travel

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Re: Corona spike after Yom Tov
« Reply #10 on: October 22, 2020, 01:06:26 AM »
there are 50,000 like them who aren’t here.

Not that I see.  Hence my statement that there are not plenty who reversed course.

The thousands you see celebrating were mostly already infected.

You seriously believe that only those infected celebrated and everyone else locked themselves up? I personally know loads who never had it (tested neg) and were in shul and I'm sure there are plenty ppl whom I don't know and never had that were in shul too.

Also, no weddings

Over Sukkos no. Starting from this past Sunday, yes. A lot. Every night. Let's wait and see. Patience is a virtue :).

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Re: Corona spike after Yom Tov
« Reply #11 on: October 22, 2020, 04:43:29 AM »
Where can I see data showing those major spikes from after RH and YK as well as the high numbers from after Sukkos.

I beg to differ.  It's convenient to blame the spike on the people who didn't take precautions seriously. I hate to break the news, but there are not plenty of people who all of a sudden started doing so. For starters, Simchas Torah was mostly business as usual.

The OP specifically referenced EY, and the data on case spikes in the first half of Tishrei there is readily available. Further, there is documentation of a clear difference in approach in shuls, schools, and individuals between RH and YK, and through Succos. There were also clear indications of precautions being effective, based on communities where they were taken and communities where they were not (see case numbers in Mizrachi communities). Also, I clearly said there was no spike at Succos, only that there continue to be new cases. From the 10th through the 19th, Israel added 16k cases. A definite drop, to be sure, but it didn't just disappear.

Even in NY/NJ, there were definitely changes in many, many shuls in how they handled the lead-up to RH, and even RH itself, to how they dealt with the rest of Tishrei. Outdoor and tent minyanim were very common, and many higher risk individuals took additional precautions. Were there plenty of places that didn't change at all? Sure. I think you'll find higher infection rates in those shuls, either from the first wave or the previous 45 days (Elul through YK). You want data that doesn't exist, though, so anecdotal evidence, first wave estimates, and extrapolations from State data are going to have to do.
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Offline iluv2travel

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Re: Corona spike after Yom Tov
« Reply #12 on: October 22, 2020, 10:36:52 AM »
The OP specifically referenced EY, and the data on case spikes in the first half of Tishrei there is readily available. Further, there is documentation of a clear difference in approach in shuls, schools, and individuals between RH and YK, and through Succos. There were also clear indications of precautions being effective, based on communities where they were taken and communities where they were not (see case numbers in Mizrachi communities). Also, I clearly said there was no spike at Succos, only that there continue to be new cases. From the 10th through the 19th, Israel added 16k cases. A definite drop, to be sure, but it didn't just disappear.

Even in NY/NJ, there were definitely changes in many, many shuls in how they handled the lead-up to RH, and even RH itself, to how they dealt with the rest of Tishrei. Outdoor and tent minyanim were very common, and many higher risk individuals took additional precautions. Were there plenty of places that didn't change at all? Sure. I think you'll find higher infection rates in those shuls, either from the first wave or the previous 45 days (Elul through YK). You want data that doesn't exist, though, so anecdotal evidence, first wave estimates, and extrapolations from State data are going to have to do.

I understood the OP is asking in general and also specifically in EY. I was referring to here in the USA.

Since you don't live here and I do, I'm telling you your assumptions are incorrect especially in all the Brooklyn zip codes as well as in Rockland and Monroe, all of which I saw first hand or heard first hand accounts - I can't speak for Queens and FR, perhaps they did implement changes more than other places. Unless you were here over Yomim Tovim you don't know what went on here. Any shuls that made changes in the areas I noted were in the minority.

Let's talk about Williamsburg for a minute. They were 100% business as usual, also seen or heard first hand.  Where is their spike?

I know you will say that Queens and FR got their numbers down lower than Brooklyn because they followed protocol. However, their numbers were lower to begin with, so all areas probably came down a similar amount but still left Brooklyn higher because they started higher. Just shows that it wasn't about following the rules since either way it came down everywhere regardless.

Regarding data, I want to see daily rates by zip code over the last month. And it does exist. They released it in order to lock those zip codes down. Now let them keep on releasing that data so we can track it and not be kept in the dark.

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Re: Corona spike after Yom Tov
« Reply #13 on: October 22, 2020, 10:48:54 AM »
Since you don't live here and I do, I'm telling you your assumptions are incorrect especially in all the Brooklyn zip codes as well as in Rockland and Monroe, all of which I saw first hand or heard first hand accounts - I can't speak for Queens and FR, perhaps they did implement changes more than other places. Unless you were here over Yomim Tovim you don't know what went on here. Any shuls that made changes in the areas I noted were in the minority.

You've effectively cancelled my ability to have any knowledge of the situation or participate in this conversation. Good talk.
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Offline iluv2travel

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Re: Corona spike after Yom Tov
« Reply #14 on: October 22, 2020, 10:55:59 AM »
You've effectively cancelled my ability to have any knowledge of the situation or participate in this conversation. Good talk.

Unless you were here or somehow else have first hand knowledge of the majority of shuls in Brooklyn, Monsey, and Monroe which I do. This isn't about assumptions, its about the facts on the ground. Saying that many, many shuls in those areas made changes is incorrect. Unfortunately most there didn't.

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Re: Corona spike after Yom Tov
« Reply #15 on: October 22, 2020, 11:02:22 AM »
Unless you were here or somehow else have first hand knowledge of the majority of shuls in Brooklyn, Monsey, and Monroe which I do. This isn't about assumptions, its about the facts on the ground. Saying that many, many shuls in those areas made changes is incorrect. Unfortunately most there didn't.

When you say first hand knowledge, that means you were there yourself. Were you at the majority of the shuls in Brooklyn, Monroe, and Monsey? Or did you hear about it from people who were there? Because if you heard about it from other people, your info is as good as mine or anyone else's, regardless of where they live.
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Offline iluv2travel

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Re: Corona spike after Yom Tov
« Reply #16 on: October 22, 2020, 11:12:01 AM »
When you say first hand knowledge, that means you were there yourself. Were you at the majority of the shuls in Brooklyn, Monroe, and Monsey? Or did you hear about it from people who were there? Because if you heard about it from other people, your info is as good as mine or anyone else's, regardless of where they live.

Of course I was not in the majority of shuls in all those areas and I wrote that in my post - "all of which I saw first hand or heard first hand accounts". This is what I meant when I said first hand knowledge.

Living here and having shuls on every block I did see with my own eyes first hand plenty of them. The rest I heard first hand from close family or friends living there and they obviously have no reason to lie. I'm just saying that since you don't live here to witness the entire picture first hand and are just going by accounts of things you heard, its just not the same as living it.

And if anyone that lives in Brooklyn or Monsey or Monroe wants to come here and refute what I saw and tell me that they did see the majority of shuls there implement changes, I'm totally open to that. Somehow I doubt that will happen.

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Re: Corona spike after Yom Tov
« Reply #17 on: October 22, 2020, 11:18:08 AM »
Of course I was not in the majority of shuls in all those areas and I wrote that in my post - "all of which I saw first hand or heard first hand accounts". This is what I meant when I said first hand knowledge.

Living here and having shuls on every block I did see with my own eyes first hand plenty of them. The rest I heard first hand from close family or friends living there and they obviously have no reason to lie. I'm just saying that since you don't live here to witness the entire picture first hand and are just going by accounts of things you heard, its just not the same as living it.

And if anyone that lives in Brooklyn or Monsey or Monroe wants to come here and refute what I saw and tell me that they did see the majority of shuls there implement changes, I'm totally open to that. Somehow I doubt that will happen.

You're moving the goalposts. I never said that the majority of the shuls implemented changes. I said:

Even in NY/NJ, there were definitely changes in many, many shuls in how they handled the lead-up to RH, and even RH itself, to how they dealt with the rest of Tishrei. Outdoor and tent minyanim were very common, and many higher risk individuals took additional precautions.
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Re: Corona spike after Yom Tov
« Reply #18 on: October 22, 2020, 11:20:20 AM »
You'd have to have a lot of friends to have heard first-hand accounts regarding the majority of shuls in multiple areas
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Re: Corona spike after Yom Tov
« Reply #19 on: October 22, 2020, 11:23:32 AM »
You're moving the goalposts. I never said that the majority of the shuls implemented changes. I said:

Ok sorry. You did say many/many. And I'm telling you that it wasn't. Maybe just a few if you're lucky. And just to be clear, I'm talking specifically about Brooklyn, Monsey, and Monroe.