US Excess deaths

[Ergel]

Very interesting and sad report here https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6942e2.htm?s_cid=mm6942e2_w

Here is excess deaths by age



Obviously the number that stands out is 25-44 excess deaths. Around 6K Covid deaths reported in that age bracket and excess deaths are around 26K, meaning 20K deaths presumably caused by other reasons - presumably suicide/overdoes and the like. Terribly devestating.

However, I find it very strange that we don't see a similar spike in under 25. Why would those types of deaths specifically target 25+ and not under 25?

Also interesting in that data is that 25-44 had 10%+ excess death rate from the beginning of the year (as did 65-74, but not 45-64 )

Also, very interesting is the excess death rate by ethnicity. White non-hispanic excess death is almost neglible.

[Lurker]

I would be quicker to assume strokes, heart attacks, and unreported Covid deaths than that many overdoses and suicides, unless they're been documented somewhere. Also, I'd assume there are many more comorbidities among the 25-44 demo than the under 25s, especially with high cholesterol and obesity.

[yuneeq]

Obviously the number that stands out is 25-44 excess deaths. Around 6K Covid deaths reported in that age bracket and excess deaths are around 26K, meaning 20K deaths presumably caused by other reasons - presumably suicide/overdoes and the like. Terribly devestating.

However, I find it very strange that we don't see a similar spike in under 25. Why would those types of deaths specifically target 25+ and not under 25?

Also interesting in that data is that 25-44 had 10%+ excess death rate from the beginning of the year (as did 65-74, but not 45-64 )

Also, very interesting is the excess death rate by ethnicity. White non-hispanic excess death is almost neglible.

I think you're reading the data wrong. No reason to assume other deaths are all suicides, especially when COVID deaths are undercounted and your <25 show that suicides are not an issue. 25-44 is much likelier to have heart and other issues.

[Ergel]

The issue is, their Covid deaths follow the standard curve

But their excess deaths don't. While the other age groups, the excess deaths and Covid deaths follow the same curve

[Ergel]

https://twitter.com/SquawkCNBC/status/1318877295680118785

[Lurker]

https://twitter.com/SquawkCNBC/status/1318877295680118785

I'd like to see hard stats on that. There most definitely was an increase in overdoses and suicides, but I don't think it explains that huge discrepancy.

[Ergel]

If you include pneumonia as cause of death in the death count, it gets you to 9300 for the age group - which seems to account for 7500 excess deaths over the time period, still way too many unaccounted deaths

[Dan]

Must be all the people who died from wearing a mask too long 

[Ergel]

Must be all the people who died from wearing a mask too long 

Are you saying that with certainty all the deaths are COVID related and not due to other factors?
I'm not sure why having a reasonable discussion isn't possible. We know that mask wearing doesn't kill people. We know that there are costs to lockdown.
How much of the excess deaths are due to COVID or to those other factors - that's what I'd like to try to figure out

I think the first step would be getting data which delineates what the other excess deaths were attributed to on death certificate

[Lurker]

Are you saying that with certainty all the deaths are COVID related and not due to other factors?
I'm not sure why having a reasonable discussion isn't possible. We know that mask wearing doesn't kill people. We know that there are costs to lockdown.
How much of the excess deaths are due to COVID or to those other factors - that's what I'd like to try to figure out

I think the first step would be getting data which delineates what the other excess deaths were attributed to on death certificate

Reasonable discussion is possible. Statements like this are not reasonable:

...meaning 20K deaths presumably caused by other reasons - presumably suicide/overdoes and the like. Terribly devestating.

[Ergel]

Reasonable discussion is possible. Statements like this are not reasonable:

I'm not sure it wasn't a reasonable comment. You are right, it likely wasn't accurate. But I don't think that all 20K deaths are attributable to COVID either.
It's interesting that overall excess deaths outpaces COVID deaths by 50%, but in this category it's >300%

[username]

What are the raw numbers? If the death rate is relatively low, than only a few excess deaths will make it look real bad. For example, if the death rate is 10 people, than in a year when 11 die, it will be a spike of 10%.

*Obviously the numbers are not that low, just trying to illustrate my point.

[PlatinumGuy]

It would make sense there is more financial despair in 25-44 than <25 but I’m highly skeptical that mental health is the culprit.

[Lurker]

I'm not sure it wasn't a reasonable comment. You are right, it likely wasn't accurate. But I don't think that all 20K deaths are attributable to COVID either.
It's interesting that overall excess deaths outpaces COVID deaths by 50%, but in this category it's >300%

I don't think all 20k deaths are Covid, either. The causes you stated most definitely play a part, perhaps even a very significant one. But your initial statement was a bit over the top.

I think that the 25-44 demo are more likely to have mild cases, which have been known to result in clotting issues after the fact. They are also less likely to present for treatment, for a number of reasons, which may lead to the cause of death being misdiagnosed.

[lcm]

IMHO, It's silly to get hyped over stats that are so fresh. There's a reason why flu numbers from 2019 take a while to be published.
And there is no context, it's harder to zoom out for accurate stats

[yelped]

I'm not sure it wasn't a reasonable comment. You are right, it likely wasn't accurate. But I don't think that all 20K deaths are attributable to COVID either.
It's interesting that overall excess deaths outpaces COVID deaths by 50%, but in this category it's >300%

The discrepancy probably is because this age group is much less likely to have deaths in a general year from health issues, but do have comorbidities with Covid, so that results in a huge jump in excess deaths compared to the older age brackets, while under 25 don't have comorbidities so no huge jumps.

[yuneeq]

I'm not sure it wasn't a reasonable comment. You are right, it likely wasn't accurate. But I don't think that all 20K deaths are attributable to COVID either.
It's interesting that overall excess deaths outpaces COVID deaths by 50%, but in this category it's >300%

I saw the suicide numbers recently and they’re nowhere near COVID excess deaths. Will try to find it later.

[Dan]

How about opioids ?
How about the poverty/suicides from all people losing jobs?

I'd like to see hard stats on that. There most definitely was an increase in overdoses and suicides, but I don't think it explains that huge discrepancy.

[Lurker]

Interesting to see which categories stayed the same and which saw significant increases.

[AsherO]

Interesting to see which categories stayed the same and which saw significant increases.

It would be very telling to see how many of those who died of heart disease/diabetes had COVID-19 as secondary or tertiary cause of death.

Would also be very telling to see whether/which causes of death start showing higher numbers post-COVID.