What Covid Measures Would You Want to Remain in a Post-Covid World?

[Yehuda57]

You cant verify that multiple patients in one doctors office were all at one wedding and they all say that there are multiple others that were at that wedding that are also sick and are being treated now? If you dont answer the phone when the contact tracer calls I guess you cant verify. .

You can't verify how many of them had it before the wedding, how many of them got it at the wedding and not at shachris the next day, etc. I mean, 150 people getting corona at a single wedding is absurd on its face. And if you are saying "linked", our communities are so intertwined and linked, at any given moment there are dozens of potential events that could be the source.

You can't contact trace in an outbreak.

[S209]

150 people getting corona at a single wedding is absurd on its face

-150

What do you mean?

You can't contact trace in an outbreak.

Is there an outbreak in BP?

[PlatinumGuy]

150 people getting corona at a single wedding is absurd on its face.

This is exactly how Corona is spread. Welcome to 2020.

[S209]

This shouldn’t need to be said: if there are 1 or more highly infectious COVID carriers at a BP wedding it goes without saying that dozens or hundreds of non-immune attendees can and probably will become infected.

[Yehuda57]

This shouldn’t need to be said: if there are 1 or more highly infectious COVID carriers at a BP wedding it goes without saying that dozens or hundreds of non-immune attendees can and probably will become infected.

Even having hundreds of non-immune attendees at a single wedding is already a stretch. And I really don't want to get into an argument, but if this were true, there's be no one left to catch Corona.

[Dan]

Even having hundreds of non-immune attendees at a single wedding is already a stretch. And I really don't want to get into an argument, but if this were true, there's be no one left to catch Corona.

Just depends if the infected is a super spreader.

[S209]

Even having hundreds of non-immune attendees at a single wedding is already a stretch. And I really don't want to get into an argument, but if this were true, there's be no one left to catch Corona.

There are hundreds of attendees at each BP wedding. It can easily hit 1,000 people all told between the different parts. While 150 non-immune locals might not be common, it’s certainly not impossible or “absurd”. There are plenty of people mostly staying away from weddings. And many/most of them might not have been local- he didn’t say all 150 were from BP. Perhaps it was an out-of-towner wedding?

That’s not how math works. Not *everybody* will catch it, and not *everyone* is highly contagious. In fact, most of the time most patients aren’t highly infectious.

Please. This isn’t a chiddush.

[PlatinumGuy]

Even having hundreds of non-immune attendees at a single wedding is already a stretch.

Satmar had 7000.

And I really don't want to get into an argument, but if this were true, there's be no one left to catch Corona.

The most annoying argument in Covid. Exposure != infection. The odds of a super-spreader event happening are low, a lot of stars need to align, but they most definitely do happen.

In all likelihood the 150 case report includes secondary household infections.

Please. This isn’t a chiddush.

+150

[Yehuda57]

There are hundreds of attendees at each BP wedding. It can easily hit 1,000 people all told between the different parts. While 150 people non-immune people might not be common, it’s not impossible. And many/most of them might not have been local- he didn’t say all 150 were from BP. Perhaps it was an out-of-towner wedding?

That’s not how math works. Not *everybody* will catch it, and not *everyone* is highly contagious. And there are plenty of people staying away from weddings.

Please. This isn’t a chiddush.

Of course, but by now there have been thousands of weddings, not to mention Tishrei, camps etc. etc. If superspreaders were infecting *that many* people at a shot, everyone would have had Corona by now.

Satmar had 7000.
The most annoying argument in Covid. Exposure != infection. The odds of a super-spreader event happening are low, a lot of stars need to align, but they most definitely do happen.

In all likelihood the 150 case report includes secondary household infections.

I obviously was not including 7000 person events when talking about regular weddings. And I'm not arguing that exposure means infection. If you are saying *hundreds* of people can get infected at one superspreader event, and not just *can* but it is *probable*, then there would be no one left to get Corona.

And secondary infections was exactly my original point. When we're dealing with hundreds of cases, it can't reliably be traced.

[PlatinumGuy]

If you are saying *hundreds* of people can get infected at one superspreader event, and not just *can* but it is *probable*, then there would be no one left to get Corona.

You conveniently omitted the variable of how often super spreader events happen.

Also, it's not me saying anything. This is universally accepted conventional wisdom.

[S209]

Of course, but by now there have been thousands of weddings, not to mention Tishrei, camps etc. etc. If superspreaders were infecting *that many* people at a shot, everyone would have had Corona by now.

I obviously was not including 7000 person events when talking about regular weddings. And I'm not arguing that exposure means infection. If you are saying *hundreds* of people can get infected at one superspreader event, and not just *can* but it is *probable*, then there would be no one left to get Corona.

Superspreader events require a superspreader- one or more COVID patient who are highly infectious at the time of the event. This is only true for a short period of time, and probably not for most patients. And guess what? Tens of thousands have, in fact, been infected by COVID at this point. Many by weddings.

And secondary infections was exactly my original point. When we're dealing with hundreds of cases, it can't reliably be traced.

Perhaps the tracing isn’t completely reliable, but it’s not implausible to find a strong link. Especially when it’s *not* running rampant through the general population at the time (which is true in BP AFAIK). Even more so if they were not local.

[S209]

One more point- there have probably been several hundred, but not thousands, of fully non-compliant weddings in the 2-3 months since COVID reappeared in the frum community in the tri-state area (largely due to said weddings). Unless my math is way off.

[S209]

If the judge still sees you on zoom it will reinforce his previous biases, and the defendant doesn’t has the ability to get more compassion that a face to face hearing provides.

I wonder what research would say. I’m not convinced.

[iluv2travel]

One more point- there have probably been several hundred, but not thousands, of fully non-compliant weddings in the 2-3 months since COVID reappeared in the frum community in the tri-state area (largely due to said weddings). Unless my math is way off.

The number of halls in the tri-state area (which I don't know how many there are) multiplied by ~30 nights it was possible to have weddings beginning 10/18 is roughly the amount of weddings there were. That would probably amount to high hundreds, maybe a thousand if we have more than 30 wedding halls.

However, keep in mind that every wedding comes along with oifruf and sheva brochos and shabbos sheva brochos some of which can be quite large events in some circles (not the scale of a wedding but can be a few hundred ppl cycling through when all is said and done). Counting all these events it can definitely reach thousands of events, but probably not just weddings alone.

[aygart]

However, keep in mind that every wedding comes along with oifruf and sheva brochos and shabbos sheva brochos some of which can be quite large events in some circles (not the scale of a wedding but can be a few hundred ppl cycling through when all is said and done). Counting all these events it can definitely reach thousands of events, but probably not just weddings alone.

How many at the ancillaries for significant amounts of time but not at the wedding itself? (more likely when one side is OOT)

[iluv2travel]

How many at the ancillaries for significant amounts of time but not at the wedding itself? (more likely when one side is OOT)

Which happens quite often, not necessarily what you consider OOT but when, for example, the boy is from BP and the wedding will be in Monsey where girl lives, a lot of ppl will go to oifruf because they're not planning to travel to Monsey for the wedding.

But my point actually was that even if its the same people at the ancillary events it just provides more opportunities for spreading within the window of contagion. Someone who may not have been contagious at the wedding might be 2 nights later at sheva brochos and so on.

[Dan]

Seemed like every time a family went from CLE to a Lakewood wedding they would bring back COVID cases. And now our school is closed as we're officially in our first wave

And my eldest is confirmed positive.

[Euclid]

And my eldest is confirmed positive.

Refuah Shleima!

[aygart]

And my eldest is confirmed positive.

R"S!

[SSLPhD]

And my eldest is confirmed positive.

What precautions, if any, was the school taking?