Author Topic: Election Polls: Which polls are accurate?  (Read 6318 times)

Offline YitzyS

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Election Polls: Which polls are accurate?
« on: October 30, 2020, 10:48:26 AM »
I recently discovered the website for Real Clear Politics and I've come to like it. It contains data for all the major polls and is very user friendly.

My issue is, they have so many polls with such wide discrepancies, I find it hard to give them credibility, especially not their averages, because they are probably weighed down with non-accurate polls.

I noticed the Trafalgar generally favors Trump, Rasmussen too but not as much, and most of the others favor Biden. Can anyone weigh in with insight on which specific polls I should pay attention to? Also, are there any other polling sites worth checking out. I've used https://fivethirtyeight.com/ before, but it's a little confusing.

Offline Mordyk

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Re: Election Polls: Which polls are accurate?
« Reply #1 on: October 30, 2020, 10:50:04 AM »
No polls are accurate.   DDF Became one big accumulation of polls.  Give it up guys. I find it silly to be busy the whole day finding polls that find the info your looking for...
#TYH

Offline YitzyS

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Re: Election Polls: Which polls are accurate?
« Reply #2 on: October 30, 2020, 10:53:19 AM »
No polls are accurate.   DDF Became one big accumulation of polls.  Give it up guys. I find it silly to be busy the whole day finding polls that find the info your looking for...
Polls may not be able to tell you who will win, but they are useful for determining the direction of the race. If a poll tells you that Trump went up or down in a specific state since last week, we can usually rely on it to know the direction it's going it. They may be off by 10 points, but they were probably also off 10 points in the same direction last week.

But this is only with trustworthy polls, who don't intentionally skew numbers.

Offline mochjas

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Re: Election Polls: Which polls are accurate?
« Reply #3 on: October 30, 2020, 10:53:47 AM »
November 3rd cannot come soon enough....

Offline CountValentine

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Re: Election Polls: Which polls are accurate?
« Reply #4 on: October 30, 2020, 10:54:54 AM »
November 3rd cannot come soon enough....
...you say that now but lets revisit this on Nov 4th.
Only on DDF does 24/6 mean 24/5/half/half

Offline CountValentine

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Only on DDF does 24/6 mean 24/5/half/half

Offline BP16

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Re: Election Polls: Which polls are accurate?
« Reply #6 on: October 30, 2020, 11:49:18 AM »
I recently discovered the website for Real Clear Politics and I've come to like it. It contains data for all the major polls and is very user friendly.

My issue is, they have so many polls with such wide discrepancies, I find it hard to give them credibility, especially not their averages, because they are probably weighed down with non-accurate polls.

I noticed the Trafalgar generally favors Trump, Rasmussen too but not as much, and most of the others favor Biden. Can anyone weigh in with insight on which specific polls I should pay attention to? Also, are there any other polling sites worth checking out. I've used https://fivethirtyeight.com/ before, but it's a little confusing.
hard to say but Trafalgar was the closest in MI WI and PI the only reason on the RCP weren't way off is because Trafalger put Trump ahead. but you have to just look at all as its a poll. 

Offline YitzyS

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Re: Election Polls: Which polls are accurate?
« Reply #7 on: October 30, 2020, 12:02:13 PM »
hard to say but Trafalgar was the closest in MI WI and PI the only reason on the RCP weren't way off is because Trafalger put Trump ahead. but you have to just look at all as its a poll.
Are you talking about 2016?

Offline BP16

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Re: Election Polls: Which polls are accurate?
« Reply #8 on: October 30, 2020, 12:09:44 PM »
Are you talking about 2016?
Yes in 2016 they had Trump head 


Offline CountValentine

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Re: Election Polls: Which polls are accurate?
« Reply #10 on: October 30, 2020, 12:32:57 PM »
You can have a field day with the numbers. Twist them to fit your kool-aid.  :)
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1pObTwLf4tnJIa0PW9KYrQNfqdSE5GwIj/view
Only on DDF does 24/6 mean 24/5/half/half

Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Election Polls: Which polls are accurate?
« Reply #11 on: October 30, 2020, 12:37:09 PM »
Trafalgar was right in the rust belt in 2016, but they don't disclose their polling methods and most professionals don't take them seriously. Even RCP that takes them into account for the average, labels them as partisan  Republican. They also don't give Trump MI although he can win without it.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline yosefsv

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Re: Election Polls: Which polls are accurate?
« Reply #12 on: October 30, 2020, 12:40:32 PM »
They also don't give Trump MI although he can win without it.
They do give him MI
https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/mi-pres-102920/
If it benefits even just one fellow DDFer, its worth posting it.

Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Election Polls: Which polls are accurate?
« Reply #13 on: October 30, 2020, 12:54:46 PM »
They do give him MI
https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/mi-pres-102920/
You're right, I confused it with WI where there is not a single poll that gives Trump the advantage, although that was also the case before he won it in 2016. The main difference is that HRC was polling 45-48% and Biden is polling over 50%

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_biden-6849.html
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

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״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline Mordyk

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Re: Election Polls: Which polls are accurate?
« Reply #15 on: October 30, 2020, 02:52:44 PM »

Offline PlatinumGuy

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״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline KSMH

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Re: Election Polls: Which polls are accurate?
« Reply #17 on: October 30, 2020, 05:38:44 PM »
Look at the underlying #s yourself.

Most battleground states have people that analyze only one specific state, taking into account, early voting, historic data, and party affiliation.
Always praying for delayed baggage.

Offline CountValentine

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Re: Election Polls: Which polls are accurate?
« Reply #18 on: October 30, 2020, 05:45:05 PM »
State pools are notorious less accurate than national polls.
Only on DDF does 24/6 mean 24/5/half/half

Offline zh cohen

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Re: Election Polls: Which polls are accurate?
« Reply #19 on: October 31, 2020, 07:57:38 PM »
The most important thing to remember about polls is that they are based on the responses of people who
1 - answer the phone when a number they don't recognize calls
and
2 - then agree to spend 10 minutes on the phone with the stranger who called them.