Author Topic: Election Polls: Which polls are accurate?  (Read 6321 times)

Offline yosefsv

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Re: Election Polls: Which polls are accurate?
« Reply #20 on: October 31, 2020, 08:16:04 PM »
The most important thing to remember about polls is that they are based on the responses of people who
1 - answer the phone when a number they don't recognize calls
and
2 - then agree to spend 10 minutes on the phone with the stranger who called them.

Is that the reason why CNN etc. polls are always much more favorable to the Ds? (Which Trump fan would speak to CNN?)
If it benefits even just one fellow DDFer, its worth posting it.

Offline good sam

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Re: Election Polls: Which polls are accurate?
« Reply #21 on: October 31, 2020, 08:42:07 PM »
Is that the reason why CNN etc. polls are always much more favorable to the Ds? (Which Trump fan would speak to CNN?)
There are so many assumptions and controls that go into interpreting polling data so pollsters have plenty of latitude to alter the results in accordance with their preference.
If you don't care why would you comment?
HT: DMYD

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Re: Election Polls: Which polls are accurate?
« Reply #22 on: October 31, 2020, 08:49:06 PM »
Is that the reason why CNN etc. polls are always much more favorable to the Ds? (Which Trump fan would speak to CNN?)

No. CNN isn't the one calling people, they hire polling firms to do it for them.

Offline YitzyS

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Re: Election Polls: Which polls are accurate?
« Reply #23 on: October 31, 2020, 09:00:58 PM »
No. CNN isn't the one calling people, they hire polling firms to do it for them.
But for some reason they know how to get numbers that are 3-6 points more favorable to Dems than most other polling institutions...

Offline YitzyS

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Offline YitzyS

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Re: Election Polls: Which polls are accurate?
« Reply #25 on: November 02, 2020, 01:11:16 PM »
The Real Clear Politics average in PA now has Biden with +2.9. Last election, Trump got 2.6 more than the RCP average in PA. If you can drew a parallel, Trump would be within half a point of winning.

Again, I don't think Trump will win. But I think his prospects are higher than people make it out to be.

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Re: Election Polls: Which polls are accurate?
« Reply #26 on: November 02, 2020, 01:31:44 PM »
The Real Clear Politics average in PA now has Biden with +2.9. Last election, Trump got 2.6 more than the RCP average in PA. If you can drew a parallel, Trump would be within half a point of winning.

Again, I don't think Trump will win. But I think his prospects are higher than people make it out to be.
So going by your figure he still loses.  :)
Only on DDF does 24/6 mean 24/5/half/half

Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Election Polls: Which polls are accurate?
« Reply #27 on: November 02, 2020, 02:03:11 PM »
The Real Clear Politics average in PA now has Biden with +2.9. Last election, Trump got 2.6 more than the RCP average in PA. If you can drew a parallel, Trump would be within half a point of winning.

Again, I don't think Trump will win. But I think his prospects are higher than people make it out to be.
In 2016 the RCP average was 46.8-44.7 leaving 8.5% undecideds. The polls never actually said Trump will lose. Clinton did better than her 46.8 polling average.
In 2020 the RCP average is 49.2-46.3 leaving 4.5%. undecided. The poll says unequivocally Trump will lose.

That's before you address the fact RCP gives equal weight to the R partisan hacks, county level data, and the fact than 2020 polls are giving Trump's base a 3% turnout advantage.


It's one thing to say Trump has a chance and even have a good feeling about it. But those saying Trump will 100% win by a large margin are bat shit crazy.

« Last Edit: November 02, 2020, 02:10:25 PM by PlatinumGuy »
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Offline CountValentine

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Re: Election Polls: Which polls are accurate?
« Reply #28 on: November 02, 2020, 02:09:13 PM »
It's one thing to say Trump has a chance and even have a good feeling about it. But those saying Trump will 100% win by a large margin are bat shit crazy.
We have a drink for that.  :)
Only on DDF does 24/6 mean 24/5/half/half

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Re: Election Polls: Which polls are accurate?
« Reply #29 on: November 02, 2020, 03:17:16 PM »
In 2016 the RCP average was 46.8-44.7 leaving 8.5% undecideds. The polls never actually said Trump will lose. Clinton did better than her 46.8 polling average.
In 2020 the RCP average is 49.2-46.3 leaving 4.5%. undecided. The poll says unequivocally Trump will lose.

That's before you address the fact RCP gives equal weight to the R partisan hacks, county level data, and the fact than 2020 polls are giving Trump's base a 3% turnout advantage.


It's one thing to say Trump has a chance and even have a good feeling about it. But those saying Trump will 100% win by a large margin are bat shit crazy.


What about D partisan hacks? Do they give equal weight to them?
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline CountValentine

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Re: Election Polls: Which polls are accurate?
« Reply #30 on: November 02, 2020, 03:19:12 PM »
What about D partisan hacks? Do they give equal weight to them?
The polls are weighted for that so they only need to worry about the R's. Thanks for asking.  :)
Only on DDF does 24/6 mean 24/5/half/half

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Re: Election Polls: Which polls are accurate?
« Reply #31 on: November 02, 2020, 03:21:27 PM »
The polls are weighted for that so they only need to worry about the R's. Thanks for asking.  :)
How are they weighted for that?
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline BP16

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Re: Election Polls: Which polls are accurate?
« Reply #32 on: November 02, 2020, 03:30:00 PM »
In 2016 the RCP average was 46.8-44.7 leaving 8.5% undecideds. The polls never actually said Trump will lose. Clinton did better than her 46.8 polling average.
In 2020 the RCP average is 49.2-46.3 leaving 4.5%. undecided. The poll says unequivocally Trump will lose.

That's before you address the fact RCP gives equal weight to the R partisan hacks, county level data, and the fact than 2020 polls are giving Trump's base a 3% turnout advantage.


It's one thing to say Trump has a chance and even have a good feeling about it. But those saying Trump will 100% win by a large margin are bat shit crazy.
Its good to see that you have more confidence then the Biden camp themselves. I mean campaigning in WI MI and even MN when they are up huge! but I saw someone from the Biden camp say that the reason they are going to those states is because he is up so much that he has time to go to those states! That was the most hilarious thing I ever heard.

Offline CountValentine

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Re: Election Polls: Which polls are accurate?
« Reply #33 on: November 02, 2020, 03:33:49 PM »
Only on DDF does 24/6 mean 24/5/half/half

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Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Election Polls: Which polls are accurate?
« Reply #35 on: November 02, 2020, 05:08:30 PM »
Its good to see that you have more confidence then the Biden camp themselves. I mean campaigning in WI MI and even MN when they are up huge! but I saw someone from the Biden camp say that the reason they are going to those states is because he is up so much that he has time to go to those states! That was the most hilarious thing I ever heard.
Right because if you’re confident you should sit at home and stop putting in the effort

Keep on clinging on, it will just hurt more when it’s over

Also, what a coherent refutation of the data I posted
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Offline YitzyS

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Re: Election Polls: Which polls are accurate?
« Reply #36 on: November 02, 2020, 05:29:48 PM »
I think someone has to archive the entire DDF now because people may try deleting all that egg later this week.
« Last Edit: November 02, 2020, 06:05:57 PM by YitzyS »

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Re: Election Polls: Which polls are accurate?
« Reply #37 on: November 02, 2020, 05:38:46 PM »
I think someone has to achieve the entire DDF now because people may try deleting all that egg later this week.
Done!!!  :)
Only on DDF does 24/6 mean 24/5/half/half

Offline YitzyS

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Re: Election Polls: Which polls are accurate?
« Reply #38 on: November 02, 2020, 07:42:26 PM »
The Real Clear Politics average in PA now has Biden with +2.9. Last election, Trump got 2.6 more than the RCP average in PA. If you can drew a parallel, Trump would be within half a point of winning.

Again, I don't think Trump will win. But I think his prospects are higher than people make it out to be.
So going by your figure he still loses.  :)
RCP average now has PA with Biden at +2.5, so... Yes, Trump will win if the discrepancy is equal.

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Re: Election Polls: Which polls are accurate?
« Reply #39 on: November 02, 2020, 07:45:15 PM »
RCP average now has PA with Biden at +2.5, so... Yes, Trump will win if the discrepancy is equal.
Biden will win if both candidates haves the exact same discrepancy

In 2016 the RCP average was 46.8-44.7 leaving 8.5% undecideds. The polls never actually said Trump will lose. Clinton did better than her 46.8 polling average.
In 2020 the RCP average is 49.2-46.3 leaving 4.5%. undecided. The poll says unequivocally Trump will lose.

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