Author Topic: Will We Know The Presidential Election Results By Nov 4th  (Read 3327 times)

Offline Kobe Bryant

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Will We Know The Presidential Election Results By Nov 4th
« on: November 02, 2020, 05:34:08 PM »
I highly doubt it.

Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Will We Know The Presidential Election Results By Nov 4th
« Reply #1 on: November 02, 2020, 05:49:42 PM »
If it's a narrow win, we are unlikely to know definitively until they finish counting mail-in ballots which take a while. If Biden wins big, like the polls are forecasting, we'll know so pretty fast, though I'm sure Trump will still hold out for counting of mailed in ballots.


CO releases nearly full by Nov 3

North Carolina will release 80% results immediately when polls close at 7:30pm, so if Biden wins there it's probably over. If Trump wins it can take until Nov 12 to finish counting mailed ballots.

FL, GA, ME, MN, MT, NH, NM, TX are mostly late night Nov 3

AZ, OH, WI are mostly in by Nov 4

Michigan & PA won't be known for a few days after the election.

Iowa & NV count ballots received until Nov 9/10 so unless Biden wins big we won't until very late in


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-results-timing/



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Offline PlatinumGuy

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Offline Mordyk

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Re: Will We Know The Presidential Election Results By Nov 4th
« Reply #3 on: November 03, 2020, 06:08:12 PM »
If it's a narrow win, we are unlikely to know definitively until they finish counting mail-in ballots which take a while. If Biden wins big, like the polls are forecasting, we'll know so pretty fast, though I'm sure Trump will still hold out for counting of mailed in ballots.


CO releases nearly full by Nov 3

North Carolina will release 80% results immediately when polls close at 7:30pm, so if Biden wins there it's probably over. If Trump wins it can take until Nov 12 to finish counting mailed ballots.

FL, GA, ME, MN, MT, NH, NM, TX are mostly late night Nov 3

AZ, OH, WI are mostly in by Nov 4

Michigan & PA won't be known for a few days after the election.

Iowa & NV count ballots received until Nov 9/10 so unless Biden wins big we won't until very late in


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-results-timing/
Have you changed your odds yet on who will win?  I believe last I saw you gave Trump like a 1%
#TYH

Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Will We Know The Presidential Election Results By Nov 4th
« Reply #4 on: November 03, 2020, 06:09:19 PM »
Have you changed your odds yet on who will win?  I believe last I saw you gave Trump like a 1%
Not really. Maybe 2-3% now that he has 30-40% chance in Florida.
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Offline YitzyS

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Re: Will We Know The Presidential Election Results By Nov 4th
« Reply #5 on: November 03, 2020, 06:10:02 PM »
If Trump loses Florida, we will probably know tonight the Biden will win. If Trump wins Florida, then we will probably be in for a long ride.

That's my guess.

Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Will We Know The Presidential Election Results By Nov 4th
« Reply #6 on: November 03, 2020, 06:11:23 PM »
If Trump loses Florida, we will probably know tonight the Biden will win. If Trump wins Florida, then we will probably be in for a long ride.

That's my guess.
If he loses GA/NC/TX it's over too.
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Online AsherO

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Re: Will We Know The Presidential Election Results By Nov 4th
« Reply #7 on: November 03, 2020, 06:42:19 PM »
If he loses GA/NC/TX it's over too.

He’s gotta win all three to still have a chance?
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Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Will We Know The Presidential Election Results By Nov 4th
« Reply #8 on: November 03, 2020, 08:09:10 PM »
He’s gotta win all three to still have a chance?
TX is a must win, GA/NC more of an indicator
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Online AsherO

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Re: Will We Know The Presidential Election Results By Nov 4th
« Reply #9 on: November 03, 2020, 08:10:31 PM »
TX is a must win, GA/NC more of an indicator

Okay, thx. Haven’t been following the details so granularly.
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Offline EliJelly

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Re: Will We Know The Presidential Election Results By Nov 4th
« Reply #10 on: November 03, 2020, 09:20:24 PM »
Not really. Maybe 2-3% now that he has 30-40% chance in Florida.
Your Florida numbers are due for an update

Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Will We Know The Presidential Election Results By Nov 4th
« Reply #11 on: November 03, 2020, 09:21:19 PM »
Your Florida numbers are due for an update
Updated elsewhere. 99% Florida, 10% Electoral college
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Re: Will We Know The Presidential Election Results By Nov 4th
« Reply #12 on: November 03, 2020, 09:22:43 PM »
Updated elsewhere. 99% Florida, 10% Electoral college
Do you still predict Biden400 in EC?
Feelings don't care about your facts

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Re: Will We Know The Presidential Election Results By Nov 4th
« Reply #13 on: November 03, 2020, 09:23:40 PM »
Do you still predict Biden400 in EC?
Nope. But wasn't irrational to expect it when there were many polls showing it.
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Offline YitzyS

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Re: Will We Know The Presidential Election Results By Nov 4th
« Reply #14 on: November 03, 2020, 09:24:06 PM »
Do you still predict Biden400 in EC?
It's too early to start tossing eggs. The wind could change very quickly and they can land on your own face.

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Re: Will We Know The Presidential Election Results By Nov 4th
« Reply #15 on: November 03, 2020, 09:24:43 PM »
It's too early to start tossing eggs. The wind could change very quickly and they can land on your own face.
Some just can't help themselves.
Only on DDF does 24/6 mean 24/5/half/half

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Re: Will We Know The Presidential Election Results By Nov 4th
« Reply #16 on: November 03, 2020, 09:26:04 PM »
It's too early to start tossing eggs. The wind could change very quickly and they can land on your own face.
I don't throw eggs for election predictions. They are typically more indicative of a person's preferences than reality even if they turn out accurate. It is not the data but how you interpret it.
Feelings don't care about your facts

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Re: Will We Know The Presidential Election Results By Nov 4th
« Reply #17 on: November 03, 2020, 09:26:57 PM »
Nope. But wasn't irrational to expect it when there were many polls showing it.
I understood where you were coming from and didn't argue the point when you did.
Feelings don't care about your facts

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Re: Will We Know The Presidential Election Results By Nov 4th
« Reply #18 on: November 03, 2020, 09:27:39 PM »
They are typically more indicative of a person's preferences than reality even if they turn out accurate.
Wow, man is that double talk.
Only on DDF does 24/6 mean 24/5/half/half

Online aygart

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Re: Will We Know The Presidential Election Results By Nov 4th
« Reply #19 on: November 03, 2020, 09:28:28 PM »
Wow, man is that double talk.
See my signature
Feelings don't care about your facts