Will We Know The Presidential Election Results By Nov 4th

[Kobe Bryant]

I highly doubt it.

[PlatinumGuy]

If it's a narrow win, we are unlikely to know definitively until they finish counting mail-in ballots which take a while. If Biden wins big, like the polls are forecasting, we'll know so pretty fast, though I'm sure Trump will still hold out for counting of mailed in ballots.


CO releases nearly full by Nov 3

North Carolina will release 80% results immediately when polls close at 7:30pm, so if Biden wins there it's probably over. If Trump wins it can take until Nov 12 to finish counting mailed ballots.

FL, GA, ME, MN, MT, NH, NM, TX are mostly late night Nov 3

AZ, OH, WI are mostly in by Nov 4

Michigan & PA won't be known for a few days after the election.

Iowa & NV count ballots received until Nov 9/10 so unless Biden wins big we won't until very late in


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-results-timing/

[PlatinumGuy]

https://twitter.com/omarjimenez/status/1323740295134121984?s=21

[Mordyk]

If it's a narrow win, we are unlikely to know definitively until they finish counting mail-in ballots which take a while. If Biden wins big, like the polls are forecasting, we'll know so pretty fast, though I'm sure Trump will still hold out for counting of mailed in ballots.


CO releases nearly full by Nov 3

North Carolina will release 80% results immediately when polls close at 7:30pm, so if Biden wins there it's probably over. If Trump wins it can take until Nov 12 to finish counting mailed ballots.

FL, GA, ME, MN, MT, NH, NM, TX are mostly late night Nov 3

AZ, OH, WI are mostly in by Nov 4

Michigan & PA won't be known for a few days after the election.

Iowa & NV count ballots received until Nov 9/10 so unless Biden wins big we won't until very late in


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-results-timing/

Have you changed your odds yet on who will win?  I believe last I saw you gave Trump like a 1%

[PlatinumGuy]

Have you changed your odds yet on who will win?  I believe last I saw you gave Trump like a 1%

Not really. Maybe 2-3% now that he has 30-40% chance in Florida.

[YitzyS]

If Trump loses Florida, we will probably know tonight the Biden will win. If Trump wins Florida, then we will probably be in for a long ride.

That's my guess.

[PlatinumGuy]

If Trump loses Florida, we will probably know tonight the Biden will win. If Trump wins Florida, then we will probably be in for a long ride.

That's my guess.

If he loses GA/NC/TX it's over too.

[AsherO]

If he loses GA/NC/TX it's over too.

He’s gotta win all three to still have a chance?

[PlatinumGuy]

He’s gotta win all three to still have a chance?

TX is a must win, GA/NC more of an indicator

[AsherO]

TX is a must win, GA/NC more of an indicator

Okay, thx. Haven’t been following the details so granularly.

[EliJelly]

Not really. Maybe 2-3% now that he has 30-40% chance in Florida.

Your Florida numbers are due for an update

[PlatinumGuy]

Your Florida numbers are due for an update

Updated elsewhere. 99% Florida, 10% Electoral college

[aygart]

Updated elsewhere. 99% Florida, 10% Electoral college

Do you still predict Biden400 in EC?

[PlatinumGuy]

Do you still predict Biden400 in EC?

Nope. But wasn't irrational to expect it when there were many polls showing it.

[YitzyS]

Do you still predict Biden400 in EC?

It's too early to start tossing eggs. The wind could change very quickly and they can land on your own face.

[CountValentine]

It's too early to start tossing eggs. The wind could change very quickly and they can land on your own face.

Some just can't help themselves.

[aygart]

It's too early to start tossing eggs. The wind could change very quickly and they can land on your own face.

I don't throw eggs for election predictions. They are typically more indicative of a person's preferences than reality even if they turn out accurate. It is not the data but how you interpret it.

[aygart]

Nope. But wasn't irrational to expect it when there were many polls showing it.

I understood where you were coming from and didn't argue the point when you did.

[CountValentine]

They are typically more indicative of a person's preferences than reality even if they turn out accurate.

Wow, man is that double talk.

[aygart]

Wow, man is that double talk.

See my signature