Will the Rs hold the senate?

[PlatinumGuy]

NYT calls MI for D but AP has it toss up. DNC needs NC/GA+MI for 50

[PlatinumGuy]

https://twitter.com/jjhiler/status/1324069410961850374?s=21

[BP16]

NYT calls MI for D but AP has it toss up. DNC needs NC/GA+MI for 50

Where do you see that Peters is ahead in MI?

[CountValentine]

FOX still saying senate up for grabs.

[PlatinumGuy]

Where do you see that Peters is ahead in MI?

NYT has him likely win, believe he's up 5k now.

FOX still saying senate up for grabs.

They're saying Osoff may win GA1 now. Has to make up 170k votes but mostly deep blue ballots left to count. D's can have 51 with MI/NC/GA although 50 is a win enough.

I'm for a R senate

[CountValentine]

I'm for a R senate

...if Biden wins.

[PlatinumGuy]

...if Biden wins.

90%

[CountValentine]

90%

Let me know when it is 99%. 

[PlatinumGuy]

Let me know when it is 99%. 

Too hard to trust any data now. These states can still find some rural county that doesn't have internet on Tues/Weds. If Fox is well informed on AZ (all PHX) then it's up to 99%

[PlatinumGuy]

Is there still a mathematical pathway for Ossoff to win GA without a runoff?

[skyguy918]

Is there still a mathematical pathway for Ossoff to win GA without a runoff?

Yes. NYT currently showing 4,791,239 votes counted, and estimating 93% counted. That means estimated total is 4,791,239/93%=5,151,869, and majority is 2,575,935. Estimated remaining is 5,159,869*7%=360,630. Ossoff is at 2,266,043 and therefore could win outright with 309,892 of the estimated 360,630 votes. That's nearly 86% of the estimated remaining vote, so while mathematically possible I think we can put that possibility to bed.

[PlatinumGuy]

Yes. NYT currently showing 4,791,239 votes counted, and estimating 93% counted. That means estimated total is 4,791,239/93%=5,151,869, and majority is 2,575,935. Estimated remaining is 5,159,869*7%=360,630. Ossoff is at 2,266,043 and therefore could win outright with 309,892 of the estimated 360,630 votes. That's nearly 86% of the estimated remaining vote, so while mathematically possible I think we can put that possibility to bed.

Throw in an undercounting of remaining ballots + 10-20k uncounted but curable mail-in ballots... 70%+ D is very likely.

I would give Ossoff 10-15% odds?

[YitzyS]

It seems almost certain at this point that Purdue will not get the 50 percent margin he needs in GA to avoid a runoff. This means that there will probably be runoff elections for BOTH GA seats on January 5.

The most likely scenario seems to be that Rs will have 50 seats to Ds 48, and those races will determine majority. It is set to be the most expensive races in history.

One plus for Rs: Democrat Senator Joe Manchin is almost guarenteed to lose next election in his Republican heavy state, and there is talk that he will switch party affiliations if the senate is 50-50, giving Reps the majority and giving himself a good shot at reelection.

[zh cohen]

One plus for Rs: Democrat Senator Joe Manchin is almost guarenteed to lose next election in his Republican heavy state, and there is talk that he will switch party affiliations if the senate is 50-50, giving Reps the majority and giving himself a good shot at reelection.

After he voted for impeachment (remember that?) talk was that he probably isn't planning on running for reelection.

[YitzyS]

[Dan]

Double runoff.
Rs needs 1 to maintain control or 2 to maintain control even when Collins bails.

[zh cohen]

Double runoff.
Rs needs 1 to maintain control or 2 to maintain control even when Collins bails.

What makes you think Collins will bail? Or are you referring to specific votes?

[CountValentine]

Double runoff.
Rs needs 1 to maintain control or 2 to maintain control even when Collins bails.

How do the runoffs look?

[Dan]

What makes you think Collins will bail? Or are you referring to specific votes?

The latter.

[Dan]

How do the runoffs look?

Good for Rs, but we'll see what happens when D money starts pouring in.