Author Topic: Will the Rs hold the senate?  (Read 10504 times)

Offline AsherO

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Will the Rs hold the senate?
« on: November 03, 2020, 10:17:38 PM »
Nobody on DDF is talking about this tonight, what are your thoughts?

Is it realistic for Trump to win re-election and Rs still lose the senate?
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Re: Will the Rs hold the senate?
« Reply #1 on: November 04, 2020, 12:54:23 AM »
Definitely looking good for the Senate. Lost AZ and CO, but picked up AL and held IA SC KS and GA1, NC and MT look good. Even if they lose ME they're still in the majority, though GA2 runoff will still be a mess.

Offline Proisrael

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Re: Will the Rs hold the senate?
« Reply #2 on: November 04, 2020, 05:54:03 AM »
So Trump loses, but they hold the Senate which should bode well for judges and blocking packing the courts.

Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Will the Rs hold the senate?
« Reply #3 on: November 04, 2020, 12:30:07 PM »
It's far from certain the Republicans held the senate.

Democrats have 47 called + AZ & CO almost guaranteed

In NC with 94% counted, Republicans have a 1.8% lead, but we know the D's have an advantage in the last ballots to count, and the RCP polling average is 47.8%-45.0 D-R.

NC would make it a tie.

In Maine with 74% counted, R Collins is up by 6%, but the Democrat Gideon has been polling consistently ahead of Collins by a large margin. Collins is well liked after winning 2014 with a 34% margin and 2008 with a 23% margin.

A tie would be great for democracy and hopefully make things much less partisan.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline AsherO

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Re: Will the Rs hold the senate?
« Reply #4 on: November 04, 2020, 12:32:17 PM »
It's far from certain the Republicans held the senate.

Democrats have 47 called + AZ & CO almost guaranteed

In NC with 94% counted, Republicans have a 1.8% lead, but we know the D's have an advantage in the last ballots to count, and the RCP polling average is 47.8%-45.0 D-R.

NC would make it a tie.

In Maine with 74% counted, R Collins is up by 6%, but the Democrat Gideon has been polling consistently ahead of Collins by a large margin. Collins is well liked after winning 2014 with a 34% margin and 2008 with a 23% margin.

A tie would be great for democracy and hopefully make things much less partisan.

1. You’re only quoting senate numbers/percentages, or relying on presidential numbers? The latter would be skewed because some voting R for senate might not have voted for Trump.

A 50/50 Senate would be too close for comfort. Better (IMHO) a D president with an R senate.
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Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Will the Rs hold the senate?
« Reply #5 on: November 04, 2020, 12:33:45 PM »
1. You’re only quoting senate numbers/percentages, or relying on presidential numbers? The latter would be skewed because some voting R for senate might not have voted for Trump.

A 50/50 Senate would be too close for comfort. Better (IMHO) a D president with an R senate.
I'm only quoting senate numbers. I'm all for a R senate, but a tie would be cool. The possibility of Trump winning with a democrat house + senate is still there.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline AsherO

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Re: Will the Rs hold the senate?
« Reply #6 on: November 04, 2020, 12:34:30 PM »
I'm only quoting senate numbers. I'm all for a R senate, but a tie would be cool. The possibility of Trump winning with a democrat house + senate is still there.

All the possibilities are still out there between what could happen in the vote counts and what could happen in court.
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Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Will the Rs hold the senate?
« Reply #7 on: November 04, 2020, 12:35:42 PM »
All the possibilities are still out there between what could happen in the vote counts and what could happen in court.
I don't there's much of a chance the court will have a significant impact.
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Offline AsherO

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Re: Will the Rs hold the senate?
« Reply #8 on: November 04, 2020, 12:40:50 PM »
I don't there's much of a chance the court will have a significant impact.

Depends. If a state suddenly finds a bunch of ballots, counts them, and mixed up who’s who and what’s what it would be a travesty that would put that state’s numbers in question. It almost feels like the powers that be on both sides are working towards this outcome so they can try and spin it their way.
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Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Will the Rs hold the senate?
« Reply #9 on: November 04, 2020, 12:44:49 PM »
It's far from certain the Republicans held the senate.

Democrats have 47 called + AZ & CO almost guaranteed

In NC with 94% counted, Republicans have a 1.8% lead, but we know the D's have an advantage in the last ballots to count, and the RCP polling average is 47.8%-45.0 D-R.

NC would make it a tie.

In Maine with 74% counted, R Collins is up by 6%, but the Democrat Gideon has been polling consistently ahead of Collins by a large margin. Collins is well liked after winning 2014 with a 34% margin and 2008 with a 23% margin.

A tie would be great for democracy and hopefully make things much less partisan.


Additionally, Georgia 1 is likely a runoff between tied Democrat & Republican candidates.
Georgia 2 will be a certain runoff but it's likely to go Republican

Depends. If a state suddenly finds a bunch of ballots, counts them, and mixed up who’s who and what’s what it would be a travesty that would put that state’s numbers in question. It almost feels like the powers that be on both sides are working towards this outcome so they can try and spin it their way.
No doubt. But there isn't much SCOTUS can do about it - at most force a recount, and that's very unlikely to change the results. The only possibility I see is if PA is decided by voted arriving between Nov 3-6 (which seems more likely when the courts finally win their wrestle with the USPS PMG)
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline AsherO

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Re: Will the Rs hold the senate?
« Reply #10 on: November 04, 2020, 12:51:25 PM »
Additionally, Georgia 1 is likely a runoff between tied Democrat & Republican candidates.
Georgia 2 will be a certain runoff but it's likely to go Republican
No doubt. But there isn't much SCOTUS can do about it - at most force a recount, and that's very unlikely to change the results. The only possibility I see is if PA is decided by voted arriving between Nov 3-6 (which seems more likely when the courts finally win their wrestle with the USPS PMG)

What if there’s confusion about when votes arrived?
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Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Will the Rs hold the senate?
« Reply #11 on: November 04, 2020, 12:54:00 PM »
What if there’s confusion about when votes arrived?
That seems to be what the Dems in PA are shooting for by slowing the count down, but aren't they required to segregate them from Nov 3-6? I don't know what the lower court ruling was. Of course, PA may not follow the court ruling like the postmaster didn't, in which case the Dems will ultimately win bc the SCOTUS has no way of overriding an election in a democrat controlled state - at most they can cancel it and then it goes to the governor.
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Offline AsherO

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Re: Will the Rs hold the senate?
« Reply #12 on: November 04, 2020, 12:55:28 PM »
That seems to be what the Dems in PA are shooting for by slowing the count down, but aren't they required to segregate them from Nov 3-6? I don't know what the lower court ruling was. Of course, PA may not follow the court ruling like the postmaster didn't, in which case the Dems will ultimately win bc the SCOTUS has no way of overriding an election in a democrat controlled state - at most they can cancel it and then it goes to the governor.

Thanks for the thorough write up.
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Offline SSLPhD

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Re: Will the Rs hold the senate?
« Reply #13 on: November 04, 2020, 01:31:36 PM »
Democrats have 47 called + AZ & CO almost guaranteed
I'm not seeing these numbers.  AP showing 47 R, 45 D, with AK, ME, MI, NC, and GA1 leading R.
44/50, 46/63

Offline yuneeq

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Re: Will the Rs hold the senate?
« Reply #14 on: November 04, 2020, 01:35:25 PM »
It's far from certain the Republicans held the senate.

Democrats have 47 called + AZ & CO almost guaranteed

In NC with 94% counted, Republicans have a 1.8% lead, but we know the D's have an advantage in the last ballots to count, and the RCP polling average is 47.8%-45.0 D-R.

NC would make it a tie.

In Maine with 74% counted, R Collins is up by 6%, but the Democrat Gideon has been polling consistently ahead of Collins by a large margin. Collins is well liked after winning 2014 with a 34% margin and 2008 with a 23% margin.

A tie would be great for democracy and hopefully make things much less partisan.

Maine - Gideon conceded
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Offline Dan

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Re: Will the Rs hold the senate?
« Reply #15 on: November 04, 2020, 01:37:37 PM »
I'm only quoting senate numbers. I'm all for a R senate, but a tie would be cool. The possibility of Trump winning with a democrat house + senate is still there.
There is no tie, the VP just becomes tiebreaker.
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Re: Will the Rs hold the senate?
« Reply #16 on: November 04, 2020, 01:39:41 PM »
Maine - Gideon conceded

Just came here to post this. This is huge because ME has a unique preferential-ballot system, where you don't just vote for 1, but rank all the candidates. If Collins slipped below 50% - and she was really really close - they would have gone to the ranking system, which could have killed her, because there was a liberal candidate pulling ~4% who encouraged all her supporters to rank Gideon #2.

Offline AsherO

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Re: Will the Rs hold the senate?
« Reply #17 on: November 04, 2020, 01:42:39 PM »
There is no tie, the VP just becomes tiebreaker.

Hence why @PlatinumGuy is so okay with a tie and a D (Harris) VP.
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Re: Will the Rs hold the senate?
« Reply #18 on: November 04, 2020, 02:00:10 PM »
There is no tie, the VP just becomes tiebreaker.

That could potentially mean D Prez, D Senate (with tie breaker), and D House. Wow.

Offline Kobe Bryant

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Re: Will the Rs hold the senate?
« Reply #19 on: November 04, 2020, 02:07:16 PM »
The short answer is the Rs will hold the Senate.

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