Who did YOU think would win the 2020 election?

[S209]

Right, but selection bias may.

FTFY

True. But why is there selection bias? Is it because people don’t want to admit they’re wrong, even anonymously, but are honest with themselves about it?

[iluv2travel]

Poll results are absolutely fascinating, although the sample size is still small. Only one out of eleven so far says they thought Trump would win. But more than 50% answered the original poll saying they think Trump will win..

The other poll has 150+ responses. Perhaps wait until there are closer to that # of responses for this one too.

[S209]

The other poll has 150+ responses. Perhaps wait until there are closer to that # of responses for this one too.

Poll results are absolutely fascinating, although the sample size is still small. Only one out of eleven so far says they thought Trump would win. But more than 50% answered the original poll saying they think Trump will win..

When there were 11 responses in the other thread 8 of them were “Trump”

[chinagel]

Perhaps the ones who thought Biden are more likely to vote now than there. You'd need to know it's the same people voting.

[Euclid]

Just checked my vote on the last thread (after voting here) and I hold the same opinion (Supreme Court). At least I'm consistent.

[S209]

Perhaps the ones who thought Biden are more likely to vote now than there. You'd need to know it's the same people voting.

Right, but selection bias does.

FTFY

True. But why is there selection bias? Is it because people don’t want to admit they’re wrong, even anonymously, but are honest with themselves about it?

[YitzyS]

I fully articulated my prediction there. Notice the date as October 12.

I think that Biden will win the election, but Trump will still find technicalities to bring to court, and the court will rule against him.

[zh cohen]

But why is there selection bias? Is it because people don’t want to admit they’re wrong, even anonymously, but are honest with themselves about it?

No, because people who wanted Trump to win (and believed he did) have less motivation to answer this poll, than to answer the other one.

[S209]

No, because people who wanted Trump to win (and believed he did) have less motivation to answer this poll, than to answer the other one.

What motivation do people have to answer an anonymous poll on DDF?

[S209]

At 20% of the other poll’s response there are now finally more people selecting Trump than Biden. Interesting.

[S209]

No, because people who wanted Trump to win (and believed he did) have less motivation to answer this poll, than to answer the other one.

What does who you want to win have to do with who you think will win? How are they relevant to each other?

[AsherO]

What does who you want to win have to do with who you think will win? How are they relevant to each other?

What you want makes you biased.

[S209]

What you want makes you biased.

Yes, but it’s irrational and is a flaw we should try to correct in our systems. It can be fatal.

Also, it’s fascinating.

[S209]

With around a quarter of the number of respondents there are again a minority who say they believed Trump would win.

Interesting, since many here are claiming they think Trump will still pull it out.

[S209]

Biden still ahead... we should use after-the-fact polling to decide elections

[yesitsme]

Title misleading did needs to be replaced with do,

[S209]

Title misleading did needs to be replaced with do,

There’s another thread for that, this is post-facto. I think we can all agree the elections already took place.

[yesitsme]

'Who do you think won/will be winning as they are still fighting and counting'

I voted trump because I understood it as
Who did I think will win before elections, I voted trump even though now I hope Trump will win and the truth will prevail, but its slippery slope

[S209]

'Who do you think won/will be winning as they are still fighting and counting'

I voted trump because I understood it as
Who did I think will win before elections, I voted trump even though now I hope Trump will win and the truth will prevail, but its slippery slope

Which truth should prevail? The objective truth, or the truth you (want to) believe?

[joe1234]

Which truth should prevail? The objective truth, or the truth you (want to) believe?

In this case it is one and the same..