Author Topic: When will the current wave peak in the US?  (Read 12416 times)

Offline yzj

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When will the current wave peak in the US?
« on: November 29, 2020, 05:35:32 PM »
Back in October Lakewood was seeing a second wave of Covid and the assumption of many was that it would only be exacerbated over Yom Kippur, Sukkos, and Simchas Torah. Although there was little change in behavior my guess (after incorrectly assuming that there would be no second wave) was that numbers would quickly peak and subside, as the same interactions over and over again are not going to continue to spread the virus at the same level:
I’m guessing it is peaking now. Most places don’t have sustained peaks for long, behavior change or not. You can’t do the same thing over and over and infect that many new people. Most people who are destined to be exposed in this wave will have by now and numbers should start to drop off.
Indeed the numbers did peak, and plummeted shortly to the point that there were scarcely any new onset cases in the days after Simchas Torah.

Similarly in Israel we are seeing the chareidi sector taking less precautions than the secular yet, having peaked several weeks ago, their numbers are way down despite little change in behavior.
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/292139

France and other European countries have peaked and are now sharply lower. After weeks of blaming lockdown fatigue for the virus resurgence it’s hard to credit the drop off with massive behavioral change; it likely has more to do with the wave having peaked and diminished.

Where do you see the US heading in the short term? My guess is that we will see the US peak and then subside in the next 2-3 weeks long before vaccines have an impact. There will still be areas on the upswing, and mortality, a lagging indicator, will go up before it goes down, but the overall numbers will be dropping. All those experts who are now forecasting a worst case scenario with a relentless rise with skyrocketing numbers due to Xmas will be quick to claim credit. Credit will be given to people listening to social distancing and masking guidance, listening to the governors, listening to the CDC. You name it. Anyone looking at the CDC travel guidance for thanksgiving knows that that is hardly the case. The numbers will simply peak and then go down as we have seen time and time again.


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Re: When will the current wave peak in the US?
« Reply #1 on: November 29, 2020, 05:37:37 PM »
Dec 7-14 for cases. Deaths til mid-Jan.
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Re: When will the current wave peak in the US?
« Reply #2 on: November 29, 2020, 08:03:19 PM »
The increased testing and no weddings likely had a lot to do with dropping
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Offline JMHO

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Re: When will the current wave peak in the US?
« Reply #3 on: November 29, 2020, 08:44:31 PM »
January 20th, 2021

Offline S209

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Re: When will the current wave peak in the US?
« Reply #4 on: November 29, 2020, 09:54:49 PM »
The increased testing and no weddings likely had a lot to do with dropping
Heightened awareness and increased general precautions as well.

To a lesser extent you can probably add no school but people may get upset. 8)
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Offline iluv2travel

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Re: When will the current wave peak in the US?
« Reply #5 on: November 29, 2020, 10:17:23 PM »

To a lesser extent you can probably add no school but people may get upset. 8)

Except there were still plenty of schools open, legally or not (depending on the zone) with kids from red zones fully attending them all (i.e. Queens had many schools legally open in what were yellow zones and kids from red zones were attending). And even schools that were closed, a lot had classes in houses. So that's not so cut and dry.

And I'm not upset 😉. They should just keep them open.

Offline S209

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Re: When will the current wave peak in the US?
« Reply #6 on: November 29, 2020, 10:33:43 PM »
Except there were still plenty of schools open, legally or not (depending on the zone) with kids from red zones fully attending them all (i.e. Queens had many schools legally open in what were yellow zones and kids from red zones were attending). And even schools that were closed, a lot had classes in houses. So that's not so cut and dry.

And I'm not upset 😉. They should just keep them open.
Lakewood schools were closed during the period that the second wave subsided (Yom Kippur till about a week after Sukkos)
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Offline yzj

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Re: When will the current wave peak in the US?
« Reply #7 on: November 29, 2020, 10:41:08 PM »
Lakewood schools were closed during the period that the second wave subsided (Yom Kippur till about a week after Sukkos)
Hospitalizations were already down in the beginning of Sukkos mere days after schools ended. That’s not enough time for the incubation period and progression to hospitalization a then discharge to take place.

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Re: When will the current wave peak in the US?
« Reply #8 on: November 29, 2020, 10:42:15 PM »
Lakewood schools were closed during the period that the second wave subsided (Yom Kippur till about a week after Sukkos)

Ok. I wasn't aware that all schools in Lakewood remained closed the week after Sukkos.

I see that OP began his post referencing Lakewood but understood that he was also talking in a general sense. I was referring to the red zones created by Cuomo where the numbers went down despite many children still attending schools throughout that time period.

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Re: When will the current wave peak in the US?
« Reply #9 on: November 29, 2020, 10:54:42 PM »
Hospitalizations were already down in the beginning of Sukkos mere days after schools ended. That’s not enough time for the incubation period and progression to hospitalization a then discharge to take place.
More likely to do with weddings than schools.
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Offline iwlw2

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Re: When will the current wave peak in the US?
« Reply #10 on: November 30, 2020, 02:16:57 PM »
Ok. I wasn't aware that all schools in Lakewood remained closed the week after Sukkos.

Actually most (almost all?) schools in Lakewood opened right after Sukkos, so that would not explain anything the OP was pointing out. Unless you think that the fact that some schools were closed from Yom Kippur till right after Sukkos did it, although again, I believe most schools were open between Yom Kippur and Succos as well, so they were closed for just over a week, if you want to go with that theory.
I'd say much more likely that @aygart is correct and it has more to do with simchos and in particular weddings, as well as at least a good chance that the OP is somewhat correct in his analysis as well. Anecdotally, I heard from a doctor who has seen 20+cases in the past week from the community, and he said all were from simchos.....
I must admit to being a bit baffled that responsible people (i.e. the Vaad HaRabonnim linyanei Corona) are not coming out in stronger terms to urge people to be more careful and minimize their simchos and/or simcha attendance to protect people, and to ensure more important venues being open (i.e. schools, shuls etc). Maybe its just obviously a lost cause? Don't get it.

Offline S209

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Re: When will the current wave peak in the US?
« Reply #11 on: November 30, 2020, 02:42:09 PM »
as well as at least a good chance that the OP is somewhat correct in his analysis as well.
Which part?
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Offline iwlw2

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Re: When will the current wave peak in the US?
« Reply #12 on: December 01, 2020, 08:44:21 AM »
Which part?
That there is somewhat of a "built-in" cycle to the ebbs and flows, and that our mitigation efforts are not the determining factor of that (although I am sure they have some effect when done correctly).

Offline S209

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Re: When will the current wave peak in the US?
« Reply #13 on: December 01, 2020, 12:52:52 PM »
That there is somewhat of a "built-in" cycle to the ebbs and flows, and that our mitigation efforts are not the determining factor of that (although I am sure they have some effect when done correctly).
There is certainly some type of “natural peak” to virus waves eventually, when the virus ceases to infect new people. That can happen naturally or be aided artificially (through vaccines, social distancing, quarantining, etc.).

I don’t think anyone disagrees with that.
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Re: When will the current wave peak in the US?
« Reply #14 on: December 01, 2020, 12:54:54 PM »
Plenty of places that didn't do any mitigation and got to 60%+ of the population infected. When the virus peaks with less than that, it is because it triggers different behavior.
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Offline S209

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Re: When will the current wave peak in the US?
« Reply #15 on: December 01, 2020, 01:02:26 PM »
Plenty of places that didn't do any mitigation and got to 60%+ of the population infected. When the virus peaks with less than that, it is because it triggers different behavior.
Yes, and 60% would be the number in those locations. All waves eventually come to an end, intervention or not. That’s not in dispute, and wasn’t what OP was arguing.

Locations with 60% infected? See BP, Willi, CH...
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Re: When will the current wave peak in the US?
« Reply #16 on: December 01, 2020, 01:06:22 PM »
Locations with 60% infected? See BP, Willi, CH...
They said that in May too. I don't believe it
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Offline S209

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Re: When will the current wave peak in the US?
« Reply #17 on: December 01, 2020, 01:07:40 PM »
They said that in May too. I don't believe it
At this point, I do. Then again, I don’t know if 60% is enough for herd immunity. Nor, for that matter, does anyone.
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Offline AsherO

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Re: When will the current wave peak in the US?
« Reply #18 on: December 01, 2020, 01:27:06 PM »
At this point, I do. Then again, I don’t know if 60% is enough for herd immunity. Nor, for that matter, does anyone.

Herd immunity still doesn’t mean no community spread. It just means an expected Rt below 1.
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Re: When will the current wave peak in the US?
« Reply #19 on: December 01, 2020, 01:53:18 PM »
Herd immunity still doesn’t mean no community spread. It just means an expected Rt below 1.
Right. And it’s quite possible that 75-95% of the population needs to be immune to truly reach herd immunity, because the dispersion factor (k) of COVID-19 is off the charts.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/why-do-some-covid-19-patients-infect-many-others-whereas-most-don-t-spread-virus-all

Here is a study that attempted to find the k factor of COVID-19.
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