When will the current wave peak in the US?

[S209]

That’s silly. Peaking and subsiding is relative. Cases peaked at 300k and are now at around 150k. There was one point to my original post; that the wave would peak and subside without substantial behavior changes.
The opposing view was:I think it’s pretty clear which way things have gone. Peaking DESPITE behavior.

(In Israel there was a sharp peak and drop off in the chareidi areas. Recently the UK variant led to another sharp peak in those areas. Lakewood could be in for the same.)

You said that about Lakewood, but were wrong- it *was* behavior that made the difference. I agree there is a natural element to it, but behavior matters more than other factors.

To say you were right in the OP is absolutely ludicrous.

There is certainly some type of “natural peak” to virus waves eventually, when the virus ceases to infect new people. That can happen naturally or be aided artificially (through vaccines, social distancing, quarantining, etc.).

I don’t think anyone disagrees with that.

But this was your actual prediction:

Where do you see the US heading in the short term? My guess is that we will see the US peak and then subside in the next 2-3 weeks long before vaccines have an impact.

[yzj]

You said that about Lakewood, but were wrong- it *was* behavior that made the difference. I agree there is a natural element to it, but behavior matters more than other factors.

To say you were right in the OP is absolutely ludicrous.But this was your actual prediction:

Hospitalizations declined by the start of sukkos. What changes in behavior were there before Yom Kippur that would account for this? Do we live in the same town?

[S209]

The answer to the question in the topic is so obvious. It is no coincidence that this wave really picked up right when the vaccines got approved. Just then when everyone started feeling that the vaccines will save us Hashem says that He is the only one who saves us. The sooner we realize that the sooner this will end.

So why did the Spanish Flu second wave look so similar? Furthermore, how was it predicted with such great accuracy in advance if it is only Hashem’s way of sending us a message for behavior that occurred afterwards?

[S209]

Hospitalizations declined by the start of sukkos. What changes in behavior were there before Yom Kippur that would account for this? Do we live in the same town?

Are you kidding? There were no weddings from one week before Rosh Hashana and on, so about 3 weeks before Sukkos.. or exactly the timeline we would expect.

[yzj]

Are you kidding? There were no weddings from one week before Rosh Hashana and on, so about 3 weeks before Sukkos.. or exactly the timeline we would expect.

Yet there were thousands of guys crammed into BMG, schools jammmed with kids, most stores unmasked, packed crowds yomim noraim etc. Was it all the weddings and nothing else mattered?

[yitzgar]

So why did the Spanish Flu second wave look so similar? Furthermore, how was it predicted with such great accuracy in advance if it is only Hashem’s way of sending us a message for behavior that occurred afterwards?

Both can be true.

[S209]

Both can be true.

Explain?

Yet there were thousands of guys crammed into BMG, schools jammmed with kids, most stores unmasked, packed crowds yomim noraim etc. Was it all the weddings and nothing else mattered?

Actually, at the time, most stores had begun enforcing masks and many outdoor minyanim had opened up. Still, I’ll repeat what has been common knowledge among doctors and Rabbanim in the community for quite some time- yes, weddings (and other Simchos) have been directly responsible for most of the spread in Lakewood over the last 3-6 months.

[yitzgar]

Explain?

Hashem uses things in teva, even predictable ones, as signs for things. For example we say in kiddush levana that the moon is a sign for klal yisrael. (There is obviously much room to elaborate on these concepts)

[yitzgar]

Explain?Actually, at the time, most stores had begun enforcing masks and many outdoor minyanim had opened up. Still, I’ll repeat what has been common knowledge among doctors and Rabbanim in the community for quite some time- yes, weddings (and other Simchos) have been directly responsible for most of the spread in Lakewood over the last 3-6 months.

Agreed. Are there any theories as to why weddings would be more of a culprit than a full bai's medrash?

[Euclid]

Agreed. Are there any theories as to why weddings would be more of a culprit than a full bai's medrash?

Aerosolizing: loud music causes people to speak louder, in addition to the singing people do while dancing etc. And people circulate throughout the hall and interact with many from outside their immediate network.

(Yeah yeah - the decibel level of pilpul hatorah in Maariv is comparable to the first dance..)

[yitzgar]

Aerosolizing: loud music causes people to speak louder, in addition to the singing people do while dancing etc.

I expect you've been inside a beis medrash. Not as much singing, but plenty of yelling...

[Euclid]

I expect you've been inside a beis medrash. Not as much singing, but plenty of yelling...

Yeah...see my edit. Thought I was quick enough

That's the prevailing theory though.

[yitzgar]

Yeah...see my edit. Thought I was quick enough

That's the prevailing theory though.

So basically because it brings together people from different circles. Then a shul kiddush (while I wouldn't make one, and have been avoiding them), probably wouldn't be nearly as bad, as there is much less exposure to different circles

[S209]

So basically because it brings together people from different circles. Then a shul kiddush (while I wouldn't make one, and have been avoiding them), probably wouldn't be nearly as bad, as there is much less exposure to different circles

Correct, there are a confluence of factors that make a wedding a potential superspreader event but one key factor is the many different groups of people who would never otherwise interact with each other. There are at least 6 completely disparate groups at every wedding congregating at an intense level, including intergenerational and intercity mixing.

[aygart]

So why did the Spanish Flu second wave look so similar? Furthermore, how was it predicted with such great accuracy in advance if it is only Hashem’s way of sending us a message for behavior that occurred afterwards?

This is as revisionist as what you are complaining about from others. PUOSU and show us where you predicted this pattern with any accuracy at all.

[Ergel]

Where do you see the US heading in the short term? My guess is that we will see the US peak and then subside in the next 2-3 weeks long before vaccines have an impact.

Looks like around two weeks or so behind schedule. Otherwise on target. Peaking and then declining despite no noticeable increase in adherence to CDC guidelines.

Just to be clear, you consider 150K cases a day subsiding?

[Dan]

This is as revisionist as what you are complaining about from others. PUOSU and show us where you predicted this pattern with any accuracy at all.

https://www.dansdeals.com/more/dans-commentary/news-roundup/covid-19-news-roundup-5-25-20-super-spreaders-second-wave-immunity-passports-el-al-turkey-worldwide-restrictions-roundup-amare-stoudemire/#Thoughts_On_SuperSpreaders,_And_A_Second_Wave

But people at the time said I was nuts to compare COVID waves to influenza waves and that COVID was over.

[aygart]

https://www.dansdeals.com/more/dans-commentary/news-roundup/covid-19-news-roundup-5-25-20-super-spreaders-second-wave-immunity-passports-el-al-turkey-worldwide-restrictions-roundup-amare-stoudemire/#Thoughts_On_SuperSpreaders,_And_A_Second_Wave

But people at the time said I was nuts to compare COVID waves to influenza waves and that COVID was over.

Oh that there would more waves? Many said that. That is nothing close to saying how it played out.

[Dan]

That is nothing close to saying how it played out.

Meaning?

[yzj]

Just to be clear, you consider 150K cases a day subsiding?

300,000 to 150,000 without behavior changes is exactly the pattern I was pointing out. That’s peaking and subsiding. Did I think it would go down to zero? No. Did I think it would go down further than it went? yes.