When will the current wave peak in the US?

[aygart]

Meaning?

There is nothing there about a wave in Dec/Jan just as a vaccine became available.

[S209]

There is nothing there about a wave in Dec/Jan just as a vaccine became available.

Didn’t Fauci/CDC/WHO accurately predict a very large wave from September-February?

[aygart]

Didn’t Fauci/CDC/WHO accurately predict a very large wave from September-February?

Precise to the day!

[Dan]

There is nothing there about a wave in Dec/Jan just as a vaccine became available.

How so?
There's a prediction for a fall and spring wave and a prediction for a vaccine by the end of 2020.

[aygart]

How so?
There's a prediction for a fall and spring wave and a prediction for a vaccine by the end of 2020.

Which is it now, fall or spring?

[Dan]

Which is it now, fall or spring?

We're on the downside of the fall wave now:

If we don't get our vaccine act together we'll have a spring wave.

[aygart]

We're on the downside of the fall wave now:

If we don't get our vaccine act together we'll have a spring wave.

This is not the way I would describe that chart.

The 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic first started claiming lives in March and the economy suffered as well. In the summer the death rate went down to nearly zero, but by September and October the death rate shot up to become orders of magnitude worse than in the spring, killing tens of millions. A third wave then followed in the spring of 1919 before finally subsiding.

Comeon! The only way this can be called accurate is if you make it a vague six month range.

[AsherO]

If we don't get our vaccine act together we'll have a spring wave.

There'll be a Spring wave regardless, the more (and sooner) we vaccinate the smaller effect it'll have.

[PlatinumGuy]

There'll be a Spring wave regardless, the more (and sooner) we vaccinate the smaller effect it'll have.

The next wave will likely be precipitated by a sense of security around vaccines. There are enough vaccinated people in the US already to change the trajectory.

This is not the way I would describe that chart.
Comeon! The only way this can be called accurate is if you make it a vague six month range.

In 1918 the second wave gained steam in September/October, which is exactly what happened now.
I have no idea when it subsided then, but if the only difference is that the wave went on for longer now, that's not a big difference.

Waves do not subside without behavior change or a miracle. The similarity between 1918 and now is in behavior patterns. People aren't that different.

Anything can be a miracle, but Covid is not only easily understood by nature/science, 99% of the problem is entirely man made. Large portions of the world overcame it months ago.

[PlatinumGuy]

If we don't get our vaccine act together we'll have a spring wave.

3M nursing homes residents account for 30%+ of deaths. A large part of the problem was already solved.
Vaccination is also lowering positive case count already bc many of the tests were surveys of high risk populations that were already vaccinated by now.

[AsherO]

3M nursing homes residents account for 30%+ of deaths. A large part of the problem was already solved.

70% of deaths is still yuuuuge! Keep in mind that nursing home residents contribute to virtually none of the spread beyond nursing home, they're sitting ducks. Vaccinating 30% of non-nursing-home-residents (including seniors and other high risk people) will have a larger impact on spread and thus mitigate deaths beyond those vaccinated. I'm not suggesting we skip nursing homes, but nursing homes are only a large fraction of the problem IMHO.

[PlatinumGuy]

70% of deaths is still yuuuuge! Keep in mind that nursing home residents contribute to virtually none of the spread beyond nursing home, they're sitting ducks. Vaccinating 30% of non-nursing-home-residents (including seniors and other high risk people) will have a larger impact on spread and thus mitigate deaths beyond those vaccinated. I'm not suggesting we skip nursing homes, but nursing homes are only a large fraction of the problem IMHO.

Nursing home residents don't contribute much to spread, but the nursing home staff is the most important link in the chain from college kids to 90yo's.

The Moderna/Pfizer vaccines are unlikely to create herd immunity without being approved in kids & mandated (See Manaus, BR), the target is mitigating severity of symptoms/societal impact by immunizing the at-risk population.

[aygart]

Listen, if you guys want to think that you predicted there being a spike in every aspect including youngereople getting sicker in Dec/Jan then go ahead. There is so much speculation out there about it being contributed to by a large number of new strains etc which was not part of any prediction here. There was no hint of this in any post that any of you have quoted.

[PlatinumGuy]

Listen, if you guys want to think that you predicted there being a spike in every aspect including youngereople getting sicker in Dec/Jan then go ahead. There is so much speculation out there about it being contributed to by a large number of new strains etc which was not part of any prediction here. There was no hint of this in any post that any of you have quoted.

I correctly predicted Xmas and New Years being the peaks of the current US surge.

I don't know of data showing younger people getting sicker now in the US.

Even in Israel I believe the proportion of younger people being sick is only larger compared to old people who have been vaccinated, and not independent on that. Even in pregnant women the data isn't conclusive yet (although I did mistakenly overstate it).

[aygart]

I correctly predicted Xmas and New Years being the peaks of the current US surge.

when?

[PlatinumGuy]

when?

I can look for it later but no, not early enough.

I don’t pretend to know the future or even understand the present fully, but the bothside-ism here is completely unfair. We don’t know what the weather in NY will be tomorrow, but we do know with 99.99% confidence it won’t be 110 degrees.

The concept that there is any level of significant/majority immunity anywhere in the world that is stopping spread is a completely unfounded fiction just like if somebody would say the sky is red and it’s raining Coca Cola now. Just have a look at Manaus, Brazil. 

The fantasy that US cases peeked in early October, and the claims after April that there won’t ever be a Covid vaccine or that it would take years were 100% deadly wrong, and known to be wrong when they were posted.

[aygart]

I can look for it later but no, not early enough.

I don’t pretend to know the future or even understand the present fully, but the bothside-ism here is completely unfair. We don’t know what the weather in NY will be tomorrow, but we do know with 99.99% confidence it won’t be 110 degrees.

The concept that there is any level of significant/majority immunity anywhere in the world that is stopping spread is a completely unfounded fiction just like if somebody would say the sky is red and it’s raining Coca Cola now. Just have a look at Manaus, Brazil. 

The fantasy that US cases peeked in early October, and the claims after April that there won’t ever be a Covid vaccine or that it would take years were 100% deadly wrong, and known to be wrong when they were posted.

 It was clear to anyone willing to see it that there would be a second wave. This has nothing to do with this post of mine that everyone is arguing about.

The answer to the question in the topic is so obvious. It is no coincidence that this wave really picked up right when the vaccines got approved. Just then when everyone started feeling that the vaccines will save us Hashem says that He is the only one who saves us. The sooner we realize that the sooner this will end.

[PlatinumGuy]

It was clear to anyone willing to see it that there would be a second wave. This has nothing to do with this post of mine that everyone is arguing about.

It’s difficult to disprove vague assertions. When did this surge/wave ‘really pick up’ and how do you know it wasn’t because of the holidays and therefore as natural as the sun rising tomorrow morning?

[AsherO]

It’s difficult to disprove vague assertions. When did this surge/wave ‘really pick up’ and how do you know it wasn’t because of the holidays and therefore as natural as the sun rising tomorrow morning?

Not to nitpick, but that isn’t a fair analogy. You can predict with 100% accuracy where exactly the sun will be at any point in the future, and when the sun will rise in any location on any date. Can’t say the same for COVID. Also, nothing anyone does affects the sun’s trajectory in the slightest, can’t say the same for COVID.

[aygart]

It’s difficult to disprove vague assertions. When did this surge/wave ‘really pick up’ and how do you know it wasn’t because of the holidays and therefore as natural as the sun rising tomorrow morning?

Hence my quote of Abarbanel