Author Topic: When will the current wave peak in the US?  (Read 12414 times)

Offline Lurker

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Re: When will the current wave peak in the US?
« Reply #20 on: December 01, 2020, 01:58:19 PM »
Lots of chatter, none of it on topic. Y'all are lucky CV is on vacation.
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Offline S209

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Re: When will the current wave peak in the US?
« Reply #21 on: December 21, 2020, 10:09:42 AM »
Back in October Lakewood was seeing a second wave of Covid and the assumption of many was that it would only be exacerbated over Yom Kippur, Sukkos, and Simchas Torah. Although there was little change in behavior my guess (after incorrectly assuming that there would be no second wave) was that numbers would quickly peak and subside, as the same interactions over and over again are not going to continue to spread the virus at the same level:Indeed the numbers did peak, and plummeted shortly to the point that there were scarcely any new onset cases in the days after Simchas Torah.

Similarly in Israel we are seeing the chareidi sector taking less precautions than the secular yet, having peaked several weeks ago, their numbers are way down despite little change in behavior.
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/292139

France and other European countries have peaked and are now sharply lower. After weeks of blaming lockdown fatigue for the virus resurgence it’s hard to credit the drop off with massive behavioral change; it likely has more to do with the wave having peaked and diminished.

Where do you see the US heading in the short term? My guess is that we will see the US peak and then subside in the next 2-3 weeks long before vaccines have an impact. There will still be areas on the upswing, and mortality, a lagging indicator, will go up before it goes down, but the overall numbers will be dropping. All those experts who are now forecasting a worst case scenario with a relentless rise with skyrocketing numbers due to Xmas will be quick to claim credit. Credit will be given to people listening to social distancing and masking guidance, listening to the governors, listening to the CDC. You name it. Anyone looking at the CDC travel guidance for thanksgiving knows that that is hardly the case. The numbers will simply peak and then go down as we have seen time and time again.
How’s this prediction going?
Quote from: YitzyS
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Offline S209

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Re: When will the current wave peak in the US?
« Reply #22 on: January 26, 2021, 04:14:38 PM »
100K people were infected in the US today, and 2,800 people have died. This wave is still going strong.. and January is almost over.

So at what point will we realize that it’s almost exclusively human behavior as the defining factor in when and where waves begin and end?
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Offline Ergel

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Re: When will the current wave peak in the US?
« Reply #23 on: January 26, 2021, 04:23:41 PM »

Peak was clearly Jan 8. That being said, that peak was much higher than anyone could have imagined and current infection rates are clearly still very high
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Offline Ergel

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Re: When will the current wave peak in the US?
« Reply #24 on: January 26, 2021, 04:24:37 PM »
100K people were infected in the US today, and 2,800 people have died. This wave is still going strong.. and January is almost over.

So at what point will we realize that it’s almost exclusively human behavior as the defining factor in when and where waves begin and end?

And, please explain Israel.
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Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: When will the current wave peak in the US?
« Reply #25 on: January 26, 2021, 04:30:25 PM »
And, please explain Israel.
I'm not sure what exactly you mean but
Similarly in Israel we are seeing the chareidi sector taking less precautions than the secular yet, having peaked several weeks ago, their numbers are way down despite little change in behavior.

Consistently for the last month frum cities have around 3x of every metric, positive cases, positivity rate, hospitalizations, and graves. Maybe it was a mistake to take pride in 'taking less precautions'
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Offline Ergel

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Re: When will the current wave peak in the US?
« Reply #26 on: January 26, 2021, 04:31:46 PM »
I'm not sure what exactly you mean
I mean, that although I agree precautionary measures have some effect, the current levels of infection in Israel are mind-boggling considering the current climate
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Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: When will the current wave peak in the US?
« Reply #27 on: January 26, 2021, 04:34:43 PM »
I mean, that although I agree precautionary measures have some effect, the current levels of infection in Israel are mind-boggling considering the current climate
We knew beforehand that the UK variant has a higher rate of transmission and the same precautionary measures would have less impact. We know UK variant accounts for around 40% of cases in Israel now so I'm not sure what your question is.

BH the Reproduction rate and the new hospitalizations have peaked at the end of last week and are trending down dramatically, mostly because of the vaccine.
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Re: When will the current wave peak in the US?
« Reply #28 on: January 26, 2021, 04:35:33 PM »
I'm not sure what exactly you mean but Consistently for the last month frum cities have around 3x of every metric, positive cases, positivity rate, hospitalizations, and graves. Maybe it was a mistake to take pride in 'taking less precautions'



Indeed, so sad that the infection rate is so high.
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Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: When will the current wave peak in the US?
« Reply #29 on: January 26, 2021, 04:39:41 PM »


Indeed, so sad that the infection rate is so high.
The data you posted is about vaccination, where the frum community is only slightly behind the general community

ETA I see now it also shows the stats of total previous covid cases in each community.
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Offline yzj

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Re: When will the current wave peak in the US?
« Reply #30 on: January 26, 2021, 10:31:24 PM »
How’s this prediction going?
Looks like around two weeks or so behind schedule. Otherwise on target. Peaking and then declining despite no noticeable increase in adherence to CDC guidelines. If anything air travel has increased and more locations are relaxing lockdowns. Vaccines have yet to have a tangible impact. The point is that waves tend to peak and then diminish regardless of changes in behavior.



The UK and other variant strains are a wildcard however. The increased transmissibility means that places that had a lull due to short term immunity- in other words the virus temporarily running its course- are at risk of renewed flare ups. I’m guessing that we are seeing some of that in Lakewood now.
« Last Edit: January 26, 2021, 10:47:13 PM by yzj »

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Re: When will the current wave peak in the US?
« Reply #31 on: January 26, 2021, 10:37:05 PM »
Looks like around two weeks or so behind schedule. Otherwise on target.
Seriously? You said Covid peaked in the US in October.

It's now 2 full months later, and there is still no evidence it peaked, and no reason to assume so other than hope of a vaccine. In fact at least 1/3 of US deaths happened after you claimed it peaked.

And what about Israel and the frum communities, will you admit you were wrong about them?
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline yzj

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Re: When will the current wave peak in the US?
« Reply #32 on: January 26, 2021, 10:45:18 PM »
Seriously? You said Covid peaked in the US in October.
Please read the post slowly for reading comprehension. I referenced the second wave in LAKEWOOD peaking in October despite little adherence to compliance and said that I would guess the current wave in the US would peak approximately 2-3 weeks from the date of the post (November 29). Please read my post and then we can discuss.

Offline S209

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Re: When will the current wave peak in the US?
« Reply #33 on: January 26, 2021, 10:48:01 PM »
Looks like around two weeks or so behind schedule. Otherwise on target. Peaking and then declining despite no noticeable increase in adherence to CDC guidelines. If anything air travel has increased and more locations are relaxing lockdowns. Vaccines have yet to have a tangible impact.

Are you joking? You said in November that cases would peak and then subside within 2-3 weeks. It’s the end of January and there are more cases per day now than there were when you made that statement. That’s not 2 weeks behind schedule, that means you were off by *at a bare minimum* a whopping 400%.

Did you forget the sarcasm emoji?
The UK and other variant strains are a wildcard however. The increased transmissibility means that places that had a lull due to short term immunity- in other words the virus temporarily running its course- are at risk of renewed flare ups. I’m guessing that we are seeing some of that in Lakewood now.
Ah yes, the good old “the reason I’m wrong is because of something new that I didn’t know about earlier”. Sounds eerily similar to the Sweden/nursing home apologetics.
« Last Edit: January 26, 2021, 10:51:25 PM by S209 »
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Offline yzj

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Re: When will the current wave peak in the US?
« Reply #34 on: January 26, 2021, 11:08:40 PM »
Are you joking? You said in November that cases would peak and then subside within 2-3 weeks. It’s the end of January and there are more cases per day now than there were when you made that statement. That’s not 2 weeks behind schedule, that means you were off by *at a bare minimum* a whopping 400%.

Did you forget the sarcasm emoji?Ah yes, the good old “the reason I’m wrong is because of something new that I didn’t know about earlier”. Sounds eerily similar to the Sweden/nursing home apologetics.
That’s silly. Peaking and subsiding is relative. Cases peaked at 300k and are now at around 150k. There was one point to my original post; that the wave would peak and subside without substantial behavior changes.
The opposing view was:
Plenty of places that didn't do any mitigation and got to 60%+ of the population infected. When the virus peaks with less than that, it is because it triggers different behavior.
I think it’s pretty clear which way things have gone. Peaking DESPITE behavior.

(In Israel there was a sharp peak and drop off in the chareidi areas. Recently the UK variant led to another sharp peak in those areas. Lakewood could be in for the same.)

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Re: When will the current wave peak in the US?
« Reply #35 on: January 26, 2021, 11:13:16 PM »
The answer to the question in the topic is so obvious. It is no coincidence that this wave really picked up right when the vaccines got approved. Just then when everyone started feeling that the vaccines will save us Hashem says that He is the only one who saves us. The sooner we realize that the sooner this will end.
Feelings don't care about your facts

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Re: When will the current wave peak in the US?
« Reply #36 on: January 26, 2021, 11:16:46 PM »
Just then when everyone started feeling that the vaccines will save us Hashem says that He is the only one who saves us. The sooner we realize that the sooner this will end.

Colder weather, the vaccine causing a false sense of security, the new strains, etc. etc.

Hashem’s world, but certainly has natural explanations.
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Re: When will the current wave peak in the US?
« Reply #37 on: January 26, 2021, 11:17:41 PM »
Colder weather, the vaccine causing a false sense of security, the new strains, etc. etc.

Hashem’s world, but certainly has natural explanations.
The Abarbanel has natural explanations for the makkos too

Once it happens we can always find a million natural reasons in hindsight
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Re: When will the current wave peak in the US?
« Reply #38 on: January 26, 2021, 11:18:18 PM »
The Abarbanel has natural explanations for the makkos too

I don’t disagree.
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Re: When will the current wave peak in the US?
« Reply #39 on: January 26, 2021, 11:21:41 PM »
Peaking DESPITE behavior.

That's not true, US cases peaked around Christmas and again around New Years in direct correlation to behavior changes of increased contacts and travel. It was predicted accurately beforehand ON THIS FORUM. There have also been more restrictions in places like California which had a bad outbreak and NYC (despite the fact you refuse to admit they work)

Contrary to your fantasy, Covid didn't go away then and won't go away now until there is a miracle, a vaccine, or behavioral changes.

Even Manaus Brazil, which has known 76% immunity, something nowhere in the USA has, is now having it's worse outbreak.


The Abarbanel has natural explanations for the makkos too

Once it happens we can always find a million natural reasons in hindsight
The Ran in Drashos Haran says there was no conclusive evidence of the existence of Hashem until Krias Hayam, which is why it says then ויאמינו בה׳ ובמשה עבדו.

The virus may or may not be miraculous but there is nothing about it so far that is difficult to understand naturally despite peoples grasp at every fiction in attempt to discredit the prevailing understanding of it.
« Last Edit: January 26, 2021, 11:24:42 PM by PlatinumGuy »
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