That’s silly. Peaking and subsiding is relative. Cases peaked at 300k and are now at around 150k. There was one point to my original post; that the wave would peak and subside without substantial behavior changes.
The opposing view was:I think it’s pretty clear which way things have gone. Peaking DESPITE behavior.
(In Israel there was a sharp peak and drop off in the chareidi areas. Recently the UK variant led to another sharp peak in those areas. Lakewood could be in for the same.)
You said that about Lakewood, but were wrong- it *was* behavior that made the difference. I agree there is a natural element to it, but behavior matters more than other factors.
To say you were right in the OP is absolutely ludicrous.
There is certainly some type of “natural peak” to virus waves eventually, when the virus ceases to infect new people. That can happen naturally or be aided artificially (through vaccines, social distancing, quarantining, etc.).
I don’t think anyone disagrees with that.
But this was your actual prediction:
Where do you see the US heading in the short term? My guess is that we will see the US peak and then subside in the next 2-3 weeks long before vaccines have an impact.