When will the current wave peak in the US?

[S209]

@avromie7 You make fair points but I find your position odd considering I remember you advocating for vaccinating the most vulnerable first.

[PlatinumGuy]

On a macro level, this is patently false. When the majority of residents at a NH are immune, the likeliness of another outbreak is severely diminished.

Source?

If 50/100 NH residents are immune, the odds of the other 50 dying are only lowered by 50% or less because of super spreaders. That isn't enough to counter the increased odds of death when there is more virus in the community.

Out of ~3 Million LTC residents, 1.2 million have tested positive. While there is turnover, that is a huge percentage of residents who are immune without the vaccine.

And yet Jan 14-21 had 6000 LTC deaths, MORE THAN ANY PRIOR WEEK, ~30% of total US deaths in that period.

The same can be said about everyone else too.

That's the point. There is no kind of majority/significant protective COVID immunity anywhere in the world. Not LTC facilities, not Lakewood, not BP, not CH, not frum locations in Israel, not in Wuhan, and not in Milan.

The difference is mostly behavioral.

[S209]

Out of ~3 Million LTC residents, 1.2 million have tested positive.

I don’t know the exact number but I’d extrapolate that around 180K of those 1.2 million have died of COVID, aside from other deaths/turnover, so the number isn’t quite accurate.

[AsherO]

If 50/100 NH residents are immune, the odds of the other 50 dying are only lowered by 50% or less because of super spreaders.

Behavior/movement patterns are very different inside nursing facilities compared to outside of them, which means spread happens differently as well. Has any of this been studied (e.g. to understand who is infecting whom, whether it’s nursing staff > residents vs. residents > residents, etc.)?

[PlatinumGuy]

The math is very simple.

Current LTC deaths are ~30% of current US deaths. Vaccinate 50% of LTCs and you lowered US deaths by 15%. Vaccinate 100% of LTCs and you lowered US deaths by 30%.

I'm not going to look for the numbers, but if you vaccinate 100% of 80+ yo, you will lower US deaths by another ~40%. Half of 80+ yo, 20%.


The US vaccinated ~25m people. That alone is enough to lower deaths by 50% as it gradually renders them immune.

The virus doesn't ebb or go away on its own. The changes are 100% behavior, vaccine, or miracle.

Behavior/movement patterns are very different inside nursing facilities compared to outside of them, which means spread happens differently as well. Has any of this been studied (e.g. to understand who is infecting whom, whether it’s nursing staff > residents vs. residents > residents, etc.)?

There are many studies and many theories and I don't have the attention span to look into each one, but it's been proved beyond a shadow of doubt that there is no kind of immunity to facilities or locations that have outbreaks. I'm sure many changed their behavior post outbreak.

[AsherO]

The US vaccinated ~25m people. That alone is enough to lower deaths by 50% as it gradually renders them immune.

1. We’ve already administered 25m 2nd doses? 1st dose efficacy is significantly lower. We don’t even have clear efficacy numbers in 80+, it’s likely lower than the 95% blended rate, though current data out of Israel sounds promising.

2. How many of those 25m vaccinated are 80+ or LTC residents?

3. Your numbers only assume current spread, outside nursing facilities there’s still potential for more exponential growth and thus higher death rate (because with more spread, lower risk people will infect more higher risk people).

[PlatinumGuy]

1. I wrote gradually. The numbers as I understand them from Israel are 30% 14 days after first dose 66% after 21 days and 99% after second dose. It works for 80+ as well.

2. I don’t know but I’m assuming at the very least half went to LTC / 75+. Israel has a free for all and was still around 60% in the correct priority group

3. Of course things could get worse. What we’re seeing now is a slowing following higher holiday contacts and vaccine affect. The next spike will likely be precipitated by confidence in the vaccine increasing exposures.

There are many things we don’t understand 100%, but we understand 99% of this virus, much more than many long existing cancers and illnesses.

[Lurker]

7 day avg is between 1100-1200 depending on today's final numbers. It is increasing steadily, and deaths lag 3-4 weeks behind cases. We'll probably hit 350k by Jan 1, and 500k sometime before Valentine's Day. I don't think we'll see 300k cases/day, though. I think we top out at around 250k for a couple of weeks in the beginning/mid Dec, with numbers starting to come down before the 25th.

We haven't peaked yet, but I think we'll peak a little before Xmas. I think we'll top out at a week or two of 250k cases a day. The deaths and hospitalizations will unfortunately take more time to peak, with death counts only starting to go back down in mid Feb.

Pretty close on the cases, other than the 2 week post-Xmas hiccup. Deaths are spot on, so far. Yay me.

[PlatinumGuy]

Pretty close on the cases, other than the 2 week post-Xmas hiccup. Deaths are spot on, so far. Yay me.

You must have נבואה to predict the יד ה׳ we are allegedly seeing now...

[S209]

This is as revisionist as what you are complaining about from others. PUOSU and show us where you predicted this pattern with any accuracy at all.

I did not, but others did.

[ExGingi]

'Recognizing hashem' to most people means recognizing the existence, power, and intentions of Hashem.

You are giving three different interpretations or details in a single breath, and claiming that "recognizing Hashem" means those three to most people without a shred of evidence. I strongly disagree with your baseless assertion (which is only hanging on @aygart's words, not at all on what YOU wrote "evidence of existence", "proof of existence", "belief in existence") that most people take "recognizing Hashem" to mean "recognizing the existence [of Hashem]".

We should probably clarify the meaning of the terms אמונה and ידיעה (and separately the English terms being thrown around which don't necessarily correspond to the Hebrew terms - case in point: you wrote at a certain point "I believe I had chicken soup for dinner" which has nothing to do with אמונה or ידיעה).

I quoted 8 Peskuim that seem to imply that, and there are many more.

See Ramban Shemos 13/16, that explicitly says the Makkos were intended to prove that hashem exists, and various elements of his existence, powers, and intent.

הנה מעת היות ע"ג בעולם מימי אנוש החלו הדעות להשתבש באמונה

מהם כופרים בעיקר ואומרים כי העולם קדמון כחשו בה' ויאמרו לא הוא

ומהם מכחישים בידיעתו הפרטית ואמרו איכה ידע אל ויש דעה בעליון (תהלים עג יא)

ומהם שיודו בידיעה ומכחישים בהשגחה ויעשו אדם כדגי הים שלא ישגיח האל בהם ואין עמהם עונש או שכר יאמרו עזב ה' את הארץ

וכאשר ירצה האלהים בעדה או ביחיד ויעשה עמהם מופת בשנוי מנהגו של עולם וטבעו יתברר לכל בטול הדעות האלה כלם

כי המופת הנפלא מורה שיש לעולם אלוה מחדשו ויודע ומשגיח ויכול

וכאשר יהיה המופת ההוא נגזר תחלה מפי נביא יתברר ממנו עוד אמתת הנבואה כי ידבר האלהים את האדם ויגלה סודו אל עבדיו הנביאים ותתקיים עם זה התורה כלה

ולכן יאמר הכתוב במופתים למען תדע כי אני ה' בקרב הארץ (לעיל ח יח) להורות על ההשגחה כי לא עזב אותה למקרים כדעתם

ואמר (שם ט כט) למען תדע כי לה' הארץ להורות על החידוש כי הם שלו שבראם מאין

ואמר (שם ט יד) בעבור תדע כי אין כמוני בכל הארץ להורות על היכולת שהוא שליט בכל אין מעכב בידו

כי בכל זה היו המצריים מכחישים או מסתפקים אם כן האותות והמופתים הגדולים עדים נאמנים באמונת הבורא ובתורה כלה ובעבור כי הקב"ה לא יעשה אות ומופת בכל דור לעיני כל רשע או כופר יצוה אותנו שנעשה תמיד זכרון ואות לאשר ראו עינינו ונעתיק הדבר אל בנינו ובניהם לבניהם ובניהם לדור אחרון והחמיר מאד בענין הזה כמו שחייב כרת באכילת חמץ (לעיל יב טו) ובעזיבת הפסח (במדבר ט יג) והצריך שנכתוב כל מה שנראה אלינו באותות ובמופתים על ידינו ועל בין עינינו ולכתוב אותו עוד על פתחי הבתים במזוזות ושנזכיר זה בפינו בבקר ובערב כמו שאמרו (ברכות כא) אמת ויציב דאורייתא ממה שכתוב (דברים טז ג) למען תזכור את יום צאתך מארץ מצרים כל ימי חייך ושנעשה סכה בכל שנה וכן כל כיוצא בהן מצות רבות זכר ליציאת מצרים והכל להיות לנו בכל הדורות עדות במופתים שלא ישתכחו ולא יהיה פתחון פה לכופר להכחיש אמונת האלהים כי הקונה מזוזה בזוז אחד וקבעה בפתחו ונתכוון בענינה כבר הודה בחדוש העולם ובידיעת הבורא והשגחתו

So without even going into the details of the Ramban (which I made a little clearer by breaking up lines, etc.), let me remind you that we are discussing the Ran, not the Ramban, and you kept on claiming that the Ran was saying that prior to קרי"ס the Yidden's belief in the existence of Hashem was incomplete. To which I say לא מיניה ולא מקצתיה!

And now you are bringing a Ramban that says that is talking about the מצריים possibly denying the existence of Hashem (and His Devine Providence). Yet you yourself said:

Let me say it again: Bney Yisroel & Paraoh believed in hashem,

So you seem to not go with the שיטה that פרעה didn't believe in Hashem (let alone denied the existence), עאכו"כ that בנ"י didn't have any such ideas.

You also wrote:

The Ran also says Yisro did not believe in Hashem until קריעת ים סוף convinced him of Hashem's existence.

And reiterated (emphasis added):

Go look at the story of Yisro which he is discussing. The Torah says Yisro became convinced Hashem is the almighty, and converted to Judaism. The Ran says explicitly this only happened after Krias Yam Suf, he wasn’t convinced by the 10 Makkos.

To which I am still waiting for

Please quote the words of the Ran that explicitly say that.

The main reason we might be going around in circles seems to be your insistence on ignoring the context which is 100% clear, the Ran is discussing trusting/believing a נביא. The Ran doesn't say anywhere anything about "evidence of the existence of Hashem" which was what you initially wrote that prompted this discussion.

[iluv2travel]

I did not, but others did.

Would have been better off buying a real lottery in this case (not just scratch offs) 😉.

[PlatinumGuy]

let me remind you that we are discussing the Ran, not the Ramban

You said there isn’t a הווא אמינא, I showed you not only is there a הווא אמינא, the Ramban actually holds so.

I answered all your questions upstream, most of them multiple times, I think it’s pretty clear to anybody with open eyes. I don’t know how to explain things any clearer or to force you to recognize an A is a and a B is a B, so I give up and leave this argument, please forgive me.

[ExGingi]

I answered all your questions upstream, most of them multiple times, I think it’s pretty clear to anybody with open eyes.

Here again, I will leave you at that. As long as no-one deletes the posts, they are here for all to see, including your avoidance of my requests for you to back up your assertions about what the Ran says, and ignoring the context which puts your interpretation of the Ran into greater question than it would be on its own. To each their own.

[aygart]

Pretty close on the cases, other than the 2 week post-Xmas hiccup. Deaths are spot on, so far. Yay me.

I guess we found one, but before the wave started or once it started, how it would progress? Either way, there will be SOMEONE who predicted just about anything that actually happens with this virus. Either take it or leave it about what I wrote how the hand of Hashem is visible here. I think it is very obvious even ith all of the "natural" reasons for it to have happened. You don't? Great, enjoy!

[yelped]

@Lurker Hi.

[avromie7]

@avromie7 You make fair points but I find your position odd considering I remember you advocating for vaccinating the most vulnerable first.

My position hasn't changed, all I've been saying is that vaccinating NH residents won't change the numbers very significantly. That's not to say there won't be 10,000s of lives saved, but relative to the current situation I think the effect vaccinating NH residents has on the overall number of deaths is less than some make it out to be.

[Lurker]

@Lurker Hi.

Good shabbos!

[yuneeq]

Not really. It is not so hard to predict that there would be additional waves. What is a chiddush is how suddenly when there is a vaccine there are who knows how many more contagious strains suddenly making it spread so much more than people thought. Listen, take it or leave it.

Do you believe the charts are showing the effects of the more contagious strains? Because I don't see it, I see the 2nd wave happening almost identically despite any mutations. Perhaps the wave will take longer to subside as the more contagious mutations take hold.

[Lurker]

Do you believe the charts are showing the effects of the more contagious strains? Because I don't see it, I see the 2nd wave happening almost identically despite any mutations. Perhaps the wave will take longer to subside as the more contagious mutations take hold.

It's a factor, but IMO the new mutations aren't widespread enough to significantly alter the numbers we've seen so far. They will most definitely factor into the 3rd wave, potentially making it much, much larger than 3rd waves of previous pandemics. The US needs to change their vaccination approach ASAP, restricting it to one dose per person, and focusing on the 25-45 demographic.