Author Topic: The Pfizer Vaccine and do people who had COVID already need the vaccine?  (Read 11989 times)

Online aygart

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Re: The Pfizer Vaccine and do people who had COVID already need the vaccine?
« Reply #20 on: December 08, 2020, 02:25:55 PM »
So 11/90 in the moderna trial is considered significant?
I am not a statistician (that was my father who ran stats for FDA approval), but the numbers certainly were analyzed by people who understand them better than I do.
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Offline Alexsei

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Re: The Pfizer Vaccine and do people who had COVID already need the vaccine?
« Reply #21 on: December 08, 2020, 02:29:00 PM »
I am not a statistician (that was my father who ran stats for FDA approval), but the numbers certainly were analyzed by people who understand them better than I do.
Trying to understand it
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Re: The Pfizer Vaccine and do people who had COVID already need the vaccine?
« Reply #22 on: December 08, 2020, 03:13:14 PM »
@Alexsei I think a picture is worth a thousand words
See how the curve breaks sharply apart at day 7? That doesn't happen by chance
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Offline Alexsei

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Re: The Pfizer Vaccine and do people who had COVID already need the vaccine?
« Reply #23 on: December 08, 2020, 03:55:33 PM »
@Alexsei I think a picture is worth a thousand words
See how the curve breaks sharply apart at day 7? That doesn't happen by chance
TY that makes sense
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Re: The Pfizer Vaccine and do people who had COVID already need the vaccine?
« Reply #24 on: December 08, 2020, 05:45:32 PM »
From page 27:

Is this saying that they had 19 cases of confirmed reinfection?

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Re: The Pfizer Vaccine and do people who had COVID already need the vaccine?
« Reply #25 on: December 08, 2020, 06:13:09 PM »
Is this saying that they had 19 cases of confirmed reinfection?
Yes, and the bigger issue is that they're showing a similar percentage (1.3%) and no distinction between priorly infected and no infection. However, you can also claim the they were flare-ups and not reinfections, so long as the genome isn't mapped (which is why we have very few 'confirmed' reinfection)
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

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Re: The Pfizer Vaccine and do people who had COVID already need the vaccine?
« Reply #26 on: December 08, 2020, 10:00:29 PM »
Trying to understand it
You start off with 40,000 people injected. Half have been injected with the vaccine, half with a placebo. Other than that, the 40,000 are a diverse mix of all types with varying behaviors in all types of environments. Then you start tracking infections in the group. You expect to have significantly more infections in the placebo group. Once you hit 170 infections, you check to see which group has more, and indeed, fully 162/170 infections occurred among the 20,000 who received a placebo. Of the 20,000 who received the vaccine, only 8 became infected. Each passing day, additional people become infected and you watch them fit neatly into that pattern as well (or adjust as necessary).

Do you understand how having 95% of infections occur in a the group that consists of half of the 40,000 people is significant? Think about that. Only 5% of the infections occurred in the randomly selected group that consisted of half of the experiment.
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Offline Alexsei

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Re: The Pfizer Vaccine and do people who had COVID already need the vaccine?
« Reply #27 on: December 08, 2020, 10:19:21 PM »
You start off with 40,000 people injected. Half have been injected with the vaccine, half with a placebo. Other than that, the 40,000 are a diverse mix of all types with varying behaviors in all types of environments. Then you start tracking infections in the group. You expect to have significantly more infections in the placebo group. Once you hit 170 infections, you check to see which group has more, and indeed, fully 162/170 infections occurred among the 20,000 who received a placebo. Of the 20,000 who received the vaccine, only 8 became infected. Each passing day, additional people become infected and you watch them fit neatly into that pattern as well (or adjust as necessary).

Do you understand how having 95% of infections occur in a the group that consists of half of the 40,000 people is significant? Think about that. Only 5% of the infections occurred in the randomly selected group that consisted of half of the experiment.
I'm starting to get it thank you for the explanation
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Re: The Pfizer Vaccine and do people who had COVID already need the vaccine?
« Reply #28 on: December 09, 2020, 12:14:45 AM »
NYS will only be using The Pfizer vaccine

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Re: The Pfizer Vaccine and do people who had COVID already need the vaccine?
« Reply #29 on: December 09, 2020, 02:09:08 AM »
@Alexsei I think a picture is worth a thousand words
See how the curve breaks sharply apart at day 7? That doesn't happen by chance
It looks like just one injection confers significant immunity.
"Akiko Iwasaki, PhD, an immunobiologist with the Yale University School of Medicine, said one striking finding was that people were protected as early as 12 to 13 days following the first dose. She added that high affinity antibodies and longer-term immunity will likely require the second dose and that all vaccines should stick to the two-dose regimen."
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/12/fda-documents-show-pfizer-covid-vaccine-protects-after-1-dose

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Re: The Pfizer Vaccine and do people who had COVID already need the vaccine?
« Reply #30 on: December 09, 2020, 07:12:08 AM »
NYS will only be using The Pfizer vaccine
Source?

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Re: The Pfizer Vaccine and do people who had COVID already need the vaccine?
« Reply #31 on: December 09, 2020, 10:26:35 AM »
According to current data one dose is 82% effective and two doses are 95%.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

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Re: The Pfizer Vaccine and do people who had COVID already need the vaccine?
« Reply #32 on: December 09, 2020, 10:32:44 AM »
According to current data one dose is 82% effective and two doses are 95%.

At 82%, I'd be skipping the second dose and doubling the number of people getting vaccinated. But what do I know...
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Re: The Pfizer Vaccine and do people who had COVID already need the vaccine?
« Reply #34 on: December 09, 2020, 10:49:32 AM »
At 82%, I'd be skipping the second dose and doubling the number of people getting vaccinated. But what do I know...
OTOH, at some point you would want to go back and boost the immunity of healthcare workers and high risk people. If at that time you need another 2 doses it would be less efficient to do it that way.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

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Re: The Pfizer Vaccine and do people who had COVID already need the vaccine?
« Reply #35 on: December 09, 2020, 10:56:34 AM »
OTOH, at some point you would want to go back and boost the immunity of healthcare workers and high risk people. If at that time you need another 2 doses it would be less efficient to do it that way.

IMO, it's not about long term efficiency. It's about shutting this thing down as quickly as possible, and then dealing with producing more as needed. The second dose isn't needed for at least 3 months. If we can double that timeframe to 6 months and double the amount of people who get vaccinated by summer, I think that completely changes the game, even if we have give people 2 more doses.
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Re: The Pfizer Vaccine and do people who had COVID already need the vaccine?
« Reply #36 on: December 09, 2020, 10:57:54 AM »
IMO, it's not about long term efficiency. It's about shutting this thing down as quickly as possible, and then dealing with producing more as needed. The second dose isn't needed for at least 3 months. If we can double that timeframe to 6 months and double the amount of people who get vaccinated by summer, I think that completely changes the game, even if we have give people 2 more doses.
And then the big bad pharma lobbyists can sell so many extra doses of the vaccine and plant more chips into everyone. So much more autisming!
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Re: The Pfizer Vaccine and do people who had COVID already need the vaccine?
« Reply #37 on: December 09, 2020, 11:01:10 AM »
According to current data one dose is 82% effective and two doses are 95%.

Where did you see the 82% figure? I've been reading 52%, which is obviously a significant gap and would explain why Lurker's suggestion may not be sufficiently effective. The NYT reported 52% directly from Pfizer:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/08/health/covid-vaccine-pfizer.html

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Re: The Pfizer Vaccine and do people who had COVID already need the vaccine?
« Reply #38 on: December 09, 2020, 11:06:12 AM »
OTOH, at some point you would want to go back and boost the immunity of healthcare workers and high risk people. If at that time you need another 2 doses it would be less efficient to do it that way.
Not clear even two doses would work at that point
Where did you see the 82% figure? I've been reading 52%, which is obviously a significant gap and would explain why Lurker's suggestion may not be sufficiently effective. The NYT reported 52% directly from Pfizer:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/08/health/covid-vaccine-pfizer.html
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Offline Traveler718

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Re: The Pfizer Vaccine and do people who had COVID already need the vaccine?
« Reply #39 on: December 09, 2020, 11:39:25 AM »
I'm obviously missing something here. How can it be 82% effective after the first dose, but then only 52% effective between the first and second doses? And if it really is 82% after the first, why wouldn't Pfizer be playing that up instead of telling the NYT that the first dose is only 52% effective?