Author Topic: When will a vaccine *really* be available?  (Read 63419 times)

Offline Yehuda57

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Re: When will a vaccine *really* be available?
« Reply #220 on: March 02, 2021, 08:40:30 PM »
No, and I don't think @zh cohen really thinks there will be a R governor. I'm just laughing at the fantasies.

ETA: Honestly, I read it and started singing, "Well they say I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one..." Now it's stuck in my head.

Imagine there's no covid
It's easy in Crown Heights
No masks on our faces
No need for 6 feet spaces
Imagine all the people living free of fear

Imagine there's no testing
It isn't hard to do
No virus to die from
No reason to miss shul
Imagine all the people living face to face

You may say I'm a dreamer
But I'm not the only one
I hope some day you'll join us
In kan tziva and beyond

Imagine there no variants
I wonder if you can
No need for Pfizer Moderna
Or even J & J
Imagine all the people without 5g implants

You may say I'm a dreamer
But I'm not the only one
I hope some day you'll join us
In kan tziva and beyond
« Last Edit: March 02, 2021, 08:49:39 PM by Yehuda57 »

Offline avromie7

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Re: When will a vaccine *really* be available?
« Reply #221 on: March 03, 2021, 10:10:04 AM »
IINM the only thing the options accomplished was to guarantee a price, not a timeline. There was nothing stopping the companies from supplying to the rest of world before America, until Biden came in. The option aren't really relevant.
This is false, if you remember the media was in an uproar because Trump didn't order more vaccines from Pfizer because they wouldn't guarantee that the US would get them before the summer.

ETA:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/07/us/politics/trump-pfizer-coronavirus-vaccine.html
Quote
The federal contract signed in July called for Pfizer to deliver 100 million doses by March at a cost of $19.50 a dose ó if its vaccine worked.
« Last Edit: March 03, 2021, 10:14:46 AM by avromie7 »
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline aygart

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Re: When will a vaccine *really* be available?
« Reply #222 on: March 03, 2021, 10:35:26 AM »
This is false, if you remember the media was in an uproar because Trump didn't order more vaccines from Pfizer because they wouldn't guarantee that the US would get them before the summer.

ETA:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/07/us/politics/trump-pfizer-coronavirus-vaccine.html

https://www.wsj.com/articles/operation-warp-speeds-triumph-11614728552
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline AsherO

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Re: When will a vaccine *really* be available?
« Reply #223 on: March 03, 2021, 10:44:39 AM »
This is false, if you remember the media was in an uproar because Trump didn't order more vaccines from Pfizer because they wouldn't guarantee that the US would get them before the summer.

ETA:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/07/us/politics/trump-pfizer-coronavirus-vaccine.html

Thatís 100mm doses (50m vaccinations), what about the rest? Did those also have delivery timelines?
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Offline avromie7

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Re: When will a vaccine *really* be available?
« Reply #224 on: March 03, 2021, 11:03:34 AM »
Thatís 100mm doses (50m vaccinations), what about the rest? Did those also have delivery timelines?
I believe they also had timelines. The article I posted was specifically talking about Pfizer and it was published 3 months ago.

As of now the US only administered 78.6 million doses total between Pfizer and Moderna, so we're still far from the 100 million doses in the initial contract. IMO anything the Biden admin ordered is probably not going to be used in the US and they know that, but they were able to make it look like Trump failed to order enough vaccines. We're going to be paying for these hundreds of millions of doses we don't need just so Biden can take a stab at Trump, as we've seen from day 1 they have no problem blatantly lying about what Trump did.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: When will a vaccine *really* be available?
« Reply #225 on: March 03, 2021, 12:49:05 PM »
IMO anything the Biden admin ordered is probably not going to be used in the US and they know that

LOL

J&J is being used this week, for one.

If Trump ordered 100m, that leaves 400-500m doses for Biden to order and use.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר Ė יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline S209

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Re: When will a vaccine *really* be available?
« Reply #226 on: March 03, 2021, 01:35:13 PM »
LOL

J&J is being used this week, for one.

If Trump ordered 100m, that leaves 400-500m doses for Biden to order and use.
Excluding children and those who wonít vaccinate, plus J&J is one dose, so shave off around 250m of those.
Quote from: YitzyS
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Offline avromie7

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Re: When will a vaccine *really* be available?
« Reply #227 on: March 03, 2021, 01:44:43 PM »
LOL

J&J is being used this week, for one.

If Trump ordered 100m, that leaves 400-500m doses for Biden to order and use.
100m was the first order from Pfizer. Trump ordered 200m Moderna, 200m Pfizer, 100m J&J, as well as bunch of others with the expectation that we'll get doses from whoever comes to market with a viable vaccine. Between Pfizer, Moderna, and J&J there was already enough doses purchased by the Trump admin to vaccinate 300m people, that would cover everyone eligible (over 16) and there would still be plenty left over. This is without accounting for the fact that I'm sure there are many people who will not be getting the vaccine.

The Biden admin is playing dirty and wasting our money on dirty tricks, but you fell for it.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline yuneeq

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Re: When will a vaccine *really* be available?
« Reply #228 on: March 03, 2021, 05:11:23 PM »
100m was the first order from Pfizer. Trump ordered 200m Moderna, 200m Pfizer, 100m J&J, as well as bunch of others with the expectation that we'll get doses from whoever comes to market with a viable vaccine. Between Pfizer, Moderna, and J&J there was already enough doses purchased by the Trump admin to vaccinate 300m people, that would cover everyone eligible (over 16) and there would still be plenty left over. This is without accounting for the fact that I'm sure there are many people who will not be getting the vaccine.

The Biden admin is playing dirty and wasting our money on dirty tricks, but you fell for it.

Well said. Biden's biggest success is that the vaccine manufacturer's underpromised and revised their timeline to deliver the vaccines earlier. Nothing Biden ordered is coming by May anyways.
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Offline yuneeq

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Re: When will a vaccine *really* be available?
« Reply #229 on: March 03, 2021, 05:11:42 PM »
https://twitter.com/steventdennis/status/1364985575896461321

Does UPS have any insight that others don't? Wouldn't Moderna/Pfizer/JJ forecasts be more useful?
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Offline Yehuda57

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Re: When will a vaccine *really* be available?
« Reply #230 on: March 03, 2021, 05:21:40 PM »
Does UPS have any insight that others don't? Wouldn't Moderna/Pfizer/JJ forecasts be more useful?

UPS is more methodical

Offline aygart

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Re: When will a vaccine *really* be available?
« Reply #231 on: March 03, 2021, 05:24:40 PM »
UPS is more methodical
and doesn't stand to benefit from statements about billions and billions and billions.
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline S209

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Re: When will a vaccine *really* be available?
« Reply #232 on: March 03, 2021, 05:49:25 PM »
Does UPS have any insight that others don't? Wouldn't Moderna/Pfizer/JJ forecasts be more useful?
UPS is more methodical
Sources say that Biden has threatened Pfizer that if they donít deliver fast enough he may resort to the UPS method.
Quote from: YitzyS
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Offline yuneeq

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Re: When will a vaccine *really* be available?
« Reply #233 on: March 03, 2021, 06:05:40 PM »
UPS is more methodical

The vaccine shipments are such a tiny percentage of UPS  capacity that itís not like they need to make extremely accurate forecasts for 3 months from now. For all you know some 22 y/o intern is busy spitting out these forecasts.
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Offline aygart

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Re: When will a vaccine *really* be available?
« Reply #234 on: March 03, 2021, 06:06:55 PM »
The vaccine shipments are such a tiny percentage of UPS  capacity that itís not like they need to make extremely accurate forecasts for 3 months from now. For all you know some 22 y/o intern is busy spitting out these forecasts.
Maybe but it may be a high percentage of their deep-frozen capacity or whatever stage they are when being shipped.
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline Yehuda57

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Re: When will a vaccine *really* be available?
« Reply #235 on: March 03, 2021, 07:46:00 PM »
and doesn't stand to benefit from statements about billions and billions and billions.

The vaccine shipments are such a tiny percentage of UPS  capacity that itís not like they need to make extremely accurate forecasts for 3 months from now. For all you know some 22 y/o intern is busy spitting out these forecasts.

Oy. I think we need @Jokeovermyhead here

Offline Lurker

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Re: When will a vaccine *really* be available?
« Reply #236 on: March 03, 2021, 07:56:27 PM »
Oy. I think we need @Jokeovermyhead here

Poor guy... hope he doesn't haven't notifications turned on.
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Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: When will a vaccine *really* be available?
« Reply #237 on: March 03, 2021, 09:04:33 PM »
100m was the first order from Pfizer. Trump ordered 200m Moderna, 200m Pfizer, 100m J&J, as well as bunch of others with the expectation that we'll get doses from whoever comes to market with a viable vaccine. Between Pfizer, Moderna, and J&J there was already enough doses purchased by the Trump admin to vaccinate 300m people, that would cover everyone eligible (over 16) and there would still be plenty left over. This is without accounting for the fact that I'm sure there are many people who will not be getting the vaccine.

The Biden admin is playing dirty and wasting our money on dirty tricks, but you fell for it.

Trump ordered 200m doses of Moderna for delivery by June 2021. Under Biden,  Moderna moved up the delivery date to May, and guaranteed another 100m by July.

Trump ordered 70m Pfizer doses for delivery by June 2021, and an additional 100m for delivery by July 31Under Biden the delivery timeline was moved up to 120M by the end of April, another 80m in May, and 100m without a published timeline.

Trump ordered 100m J&J doses. 12m were supposed to be delivered by Feb 2021, but only 4m were ready. Biden invoked the DPA and got Merck to sign a deal to use 2 factories to produce 20m doses by the end of March, with an initial $100m new investment in manufacturing capacity that may increase to $269m

Trump spent $1.2B on 300m AZN doses for delivery beginning Oct 2020, but AZN didn't even file for a FDA approval yet.

Trump spent. $1.6B on 100m Novavax doses, but Novavax isn't planing on applying for FDA approval until April/May


The CDC counts 260m Americans over 18. FDA approved the Pfizer for 16+, which is another ~8m. The vaccine is anticipated to be approved for 12+ in April which is another ~16m, for a total of 284m Americans, before wasted doses and anti vaxxers.


So, even in a best case scenario of Moderna and Pfizer both supplying Trumps 400m doses by the end of May, and J&J keeps up supplying 20m/mo, by June 1 Trump's vaccine orders will dry out and the US will start using Biden's orders. Of course, if either Moderna or Pfizer don't live up to their schedule, the Biden doses will kick in from the other company.
« Last Edit: March 03, 2021, 10:45:33 PM by PlatinumGuy »
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר Ė יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline avromie7

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Re: When will a vaccine *really* be available?
« Reply #238 on: March 03, 2021, 09:32:00 PM »
Trump ordered 200m doses of Moderna for delivery by June 2021. Under Biden,  Moderna moved up the delivery date to May, and guaranteed another 100m by July.

Trump ordered 70m Pfizer doses for delivery by June 2021, and an additional 100m for delivery by July 31Under Biden the delivery timeline was moved up to 120M by the end of April, another 80m in May, and 100m without a published timeline.

Trump ordered 100m J&J doses. 12m were supposed to be delivered by Feb 2021, but only 4m were ready. Biden invoked the DPA and got Merck to sign a deal to use 2 factories to produce 20m doses by the end of March, with an initial $100m new investment in manufacturing capacity that may increase to $269m

Trump spent $1.2B on 300m AZN doses for delivery beginning Oct 2020, but AZN didn't even file for a FDA approval yet.

Trump spent. $1.6B on 100m Novavax doses, but Novavax isn't planing on applying for FDA approval until April/May


The CDC counts 260m Americans over 18. FDA approved the Pfizer for 16+, which is another ~8m. The vaccine is anticipated to be approved for 12+ in April which is another ~16m, for a total of 284m Americans, before wasted doses and anti vaxxers.


So, even in a best case scenario of Moderna and Pfizer both supplying Trumps 400m doses by the end of May, and J&J keeps up supplying 20m/mo, by June 1 Trump's vaccine orders will dry out and the US will start using Biden's orders. Of course, if either Moderna or Pfizer don't live up to their schedule, the Biden doses will kick in from the other company.
Most of the links you posted are dead.

Are you telling me Biden deserves all the credit because Pfizer and Moderna were able to outperform their initial promises? Operation Warp Speed was 95%+ perfect all without being able to tweak anything after the fact. That's why we ended up with hundreds millions of doses purchased that still weren't approved, and that's why the timelines couldn't be perfectly predicted. The only thing Biden may deserve credit for is the J&J Merck partnership, but I'm not sure he had anything to do with it.

You say by June 1 all of Trumps orders will dry out, when we get to that point that means every singe person in the US who wants a vaccine already got one and there are more left over. We still have no need for all the doses Biden purchased.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline Lurker

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Re: When will a vaccine *really* be available?
« Reply #239 on: March 03, 2021, 09:34:07 PM »
Stupid question.... does anyone really care who takes/deserves the credit here?
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