When will a vaccine *really* be available?

[biobook]

It's presumably in Pfizer's best interest to hold its cards close, eh?

I don't think it's that at all.  I imagine it'd be in their best interest to let people if there's something that characterizes those who got covid despite the vaccine.  If they showed certain behaviors, it would reassure people that the vaccine will protect them as long as they avoid these behaviors.  If they had certain underlying conditions, it would reassure the rest of us that if we don't hae that condition, we're safe.  Or if we do, we should protect even more.  That is, I think eliminating the uncertainty caused by those few who got sick would reassure some of those who are hesitating to get the vaccine. 

Unless, of course, there is nothing that characterizes those people.  If it seems to be a totally random thing, then that might be less reassuring.

[biobook]

I should add that although you can't go out and get a test for T cells, the tests that are used in research labs have shown that the vaccines do simulate the development of T cells, so it's assumed that the immunity produced by the vaccine resembles natural immunity in both regards. 

Here's one article on that, re: the newly discovered strains.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/11/pfizer-vaccine-strong-response-new-covid-variants

[PlatinumGuy]

I should add that although you can't go out and get a test for T cells, the tests that are used in research labs have shown that the vaccines do simulate the development of T cells, so it's assumed that the immunity produced by the vaccine resembles natural immunity in both regards

We know natural immunity is in place by the time antibodies are present and we know vaccine immunity is not fully in place until a few weeks later.

This is an important question, and was asked by many tweeting scientists when the Pfizer data came out.  What was it - 9 people out of 20,000 who got covid during the 2-3 months after the second injection?  Hello, Pfizer?  Can you tell us more?  Nine is not a huge number of people to study.  It seems certain that Pfizer has been studying those individuals, but AFAIK no studies have been published on those particular individuals.  So we don't know if they never made antibodies, or if they did and the antibody levels declined, or if they had high antibodies but got infected nevertheless.

I believe I saw Israel is sequencing all positive tests from 7 days from the second dose, but I'm not sure if any data was published yet and couldn't find it with some quick searching.

[AsherO]

We know natural immunity is in place by the time antibodies are present and we know vaccine immunity is not fully in place until a few weeks later.


I believe I saw Israel is sequencing all positive tests from 7 days from the second dose, but I'm not sure if any data was published yet and couldn't find it with some quick searching.

That’s a great initiative. With very few cases and no baseline/control group as a frame of reference (e.g. equal amount of sequencing of randomly chosen non-vaccinated cases), it’s hard to interpret such data in relative terms. Any insight please?

[AsherO]

We know natural immunity is in place by the time antibodies are present and we know vaccine immunity is not fully in place until a few weeks later.

@ShimshonK

[PlatinumGuy]

That’s a great initiative. With very few cases and no baseline/control group as a frame of reference (e.g. equal amount of sequencing of randomly chosen non-vaccinated cases), it’s hard to interpret such data in relative terms. Any insight please?

There is random sequencing in Israel. There is very likely to be outsize proposition of E484K IMHO in those immune.
My point is more about the boarder attempt to figure out why the 5% are getting infected than the specific sequencing elements.

[AsherO]

There is random sequencing in Israel. There is very likely to be outsize proposition of E484K IMHO in those immune.
My point is more about the boarder attempt to figure out why the 5% are getting infected than the specific sequencing elements.

Both very interesting points.

Of course there’s more variant the question is how much more in vaccinated vs. non-vaccinated.

You’re talking about sequencing the virus of fully vaccinated infections. What I’m thinking now is it might not be the virus and there might be a genetic predisposition. But you’d need a whole lot of patient’s DNA sequences to find something like that, much larger scale than anything we’re discussing here.

[PlatinumGuy]

You’re talking about sequencing the virus of fully vaccinated infections. What I’m thinking now is it might not be the virus and there might be a genetic predisposition. But you’d need a whole lot of patient’s DNA sequences to find something like that, much larger scale than anything we’re discussing here.

Yeah that will take a while. Haven't heard of any genetics research in covid context (other than talk of certain Africans being less susceptible), although I'm sure it must be happening.

[AsherO]

Yeah that will take a while. Haven't heard of any genetics research in covid context (other than talk of some Africans being less susceptible), although I'm sure it must be happening.

I got this in an email recently: https://you.23andme.com/covid19-study/

[PlatinumGuy]

I got this in an email recently: https://you.23andme.com/covid19-study/

Yeah forgot that one. I'm sure there are still people out there who think they're immune because they have O blood type.

[AsherO]

Yeah forgot that one. I'm sure there are still people out there who think they're immune because they have O blood type.

They might be marginally less susceptible. But say a 10% decrease in susceptibility can easily be cancelled out by 100% reckless behavior.

[PlatinumGuy]

They might be marginally less susceptible. But say a 10% decrease in susceptibility can easily be cancelled out by 100% reckless behavior.

Yup.

[yitzgar]

This is an important question, and was asked by many tweeting scientists when the Pfizer data came out.  What was it - 9 people out of 20,000 who got covid during the 2-3 months after the second injection?  Hello, Pfizer?  Can you tell us more?  Nine is not a huge number of people to study.  It seems certain that Pfizer has been studying those individuals, but AFAIK no studies have been published on those particular individuals.  So we don't know if they never made antibodies, or if they did and the antibody levels declined, or if they had high antibodies but got infected nevertheless.

I assume the FDA requires them show them whatever information they get from these studies...

[Traveler718]

Fauci delays estimate of widespread vaccinate availability to May-June as J&J not expected to meet delivery targets:

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-02-16/fauci-cautious-covid-19-vaccine-rollout-open-season-may-june

[PlatinumGuy]

https://twitter.com/american_bridge/status/1361862266224857088

[ShimshonK]

Going back to the discussion we had earlier in the week...
I have started to see some news about strong efficacy from just the first shot.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/single-dose-of-pfizer-vaccine-is-85-effective-israeli-study-shows-11613723218
https://nypost.com/2021/02/18/single-pfizer-moderna-vaccine-dose-nearly-as-effective-as-two/
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2036242

[AsherO]

Going back to the discussion we had earlier in the week...
I have started to see some news about strong efficacy from just the first shot.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/single-dose-of-pfizer-vaccine-is-85-effective-israeli-study-shows-11613723218
https://nypost.com/2021/02/18/single-pfizer-moderna-vaccine-dose-nearly-as-effective-as-two/
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2036242

I’ll concede, these are very good news at least for the short term. I would recommend you consult a medical professional before making any decisions based on this news.

[AsherO]

Medgar Evers college vaccination site open with 3k daily. Appointments available to eligible recipients in zip codes 11207, 11212, 11208, 11206, 11233, 11213, 11221, 11226, 11236, 11216, 11225, 11210, 11203, 11238

Make sure your first or second dose don’t come out on Shabbos or YomTov.

There’s also a Queens location at York College, probably also limited zip codes.

https://am-i-eligible.covid19vaccine.health.ny.gov/

[tmendy226]

Medgar Evers college vaccination site open with 3k daily. Appointments available to eligible recipients in zip codes 11207, 11212, 11208, 11206, 11233, 11213, 11221, 11226, 11236, 11216, 11225, 11210, 11203, 11238

Make sure your first or second dose don’t come out on Shabbos or YomTov.

There’s also a Queens location at York College, probably also limited zip codes.

https://am-i-eligible.covid19vaccine.health.ny.gov/

Is there a way to find out if this is Pfizer or moderna?

[AsherO]

Is there a way to find out if this is Pfizer or moderna?

It’s Pfizer based on the fact that the 2nd dose is being scheduled for 21 days after the 1st. Moderna is 28 days.