UK COVID Mutation

[Moshe123]

I see the end already. If everything stays on track it will be mostly over by March/April in Israel, July/August in the US iyh, and likely earlier.

I think this is wildly optimistic for the US, sadly. Even Israel is likely to have supply issues.

[AsherO]

I see the end already. If everything stays on track it will be mostly over by March/April in Israel, July/August in the US iyh, and likely earlier.

Doesn’t that depend on how effective existing vaccines are against new mutations/variants?

[PlatinumGuy]

I think this is wildly optimistic for the US, sadly. Even Israel is likely to have supply issues.

Israel already vaccinated enough people to overcome most of the problem. It's only a question of a few weeks until the virus goes into affect. I also don't expect delays for Israel, these are very small numbers for Pfizer, it is very important to Bibbi, Pfizer is getting very good global press coverage, and Moderna is eager to step in if there really is an issue.

J&J alone is 100m. US will get at least half. By 100-150m ppl vaccinated Covid shouldn't be a problem anymore in the US.

 

Doesn’t that depend on how effective existing vaccines are against new mutations/variants?

The fear is very much exaggerated at this point from my understanding. The variants aren't anywhere near different enough to evade vaccines.

I'm more concerned the vaccines will fade in a year before production is ramped up enough to produce more easily, an enormous global political failure.

רבות מחשבות בלב איש, my point is just that if you look at the current course it looks like it will be over.

[Moshe123]

I think we all don't know what J&J will report later this week.
Also, if 150m are vaccinated you can still have severe outbreaks. Obviously not on the same level.
Charedim in Israel are the best evidence. Many many communities with outbreaks now, that the majority had covid already in the past.

[PlatinumGuy]

I think we all don't know what J&J will report later this week.

We know the sentiment amongst Fauci and etc and they're saying it's good.

Charedim in Israel are the best evidence. Many many communities with outbreaks now, that the majority had covid already in the past.

The majority did not have covid, it's a fantasy. In any case if you get enough of the elderly the outbreaks aren't that much of a problem anymore. Vaccinating nursing homes alone is almost half of the deaths.

[biobook]

The majority did not have covid, it's a fantasy. In any case if you get enough of the elderly the outbreaks aren't that much of a problem anymore. Vaccinating nursing homes alone is almost half of the deaths.

Deaths are only part of the problem. 

[yelped]

I have no idea. I didn't say 0 worldwide or even nationwide. And I gave that shot to my kids under age 5 as per DOH protocol since schools and daycares require it to attend.

Please read my initial post. I was repeating what my pediatrician told me and I wasn't making it up. If you'd like to call and discuss with their practice please feel free. I actually was so surprised that I had him repeat to me at least 3 times that they've seen 0 cases as have many other practices they're in contact with. Its just weird if you ask me.

My son had the flu a few weeks ago.

[PlatinumGuy]

Deaths are only part of the problem.

The only thing the West cares about now is overcrowded hospitals. It makes no sense but that's the way it is.

[iluv2travel]

My son had the flu a few weeks ago.

We must not use the same pediatrician and mine must not know yours 🙂.

[yelped]

We must not use the same pediatrician and mine must not know yours 🙂.

Well it sounds like you're in BP. I'm in Lakewood.

[biobook]

The only thing the West cares about now is overcrowded hospitals. It makes no sense but that's the way it is.

Source?

[PlatinumGuy]

Source?

The draconian public health measures are mostly instituted to the extent needed to relieve pressure on hospitals in the US/Canada/UK/France/Germany/Netherlans/Belgium/Israel. Netnayahu says so openly. They were fine with plenty of deaths in the summer so long as hospital capacity wasn't threatened.

The only time minyans were really suspended all over NY was when the hospitals were overflowing (I know it can be correlation, but I don't think it is)

[iluv2travel]

They were fine with plenty of deaths in the summer so long as hospital capacity wasn't threatened.

How can they be "fine with plenty of deaths"? That's beyond abhorrent. I'm not attacking you but whoever it is you're saying is fine with deaths.

[PlatinumGuy]

You’ve yet to take one on principle? Did you ever have extensive exposure and/or symptoms?

I should add - a negative test doesn't really tell you anything, so when there was a safek I isolated anyways. The only benefit of a positive test is for close contacts to isolate, for treatment protocol if needed, and as an immunity certificate which doesn't have that much use.

I did get an oximeter and measure myself frequently, if numbers would drop it would be an easy way to know & isolate. I've noticed I'm typically 97-98 but can hit 99 when on ketosis/fat burning.

How can they be "fine with plenty of deaths"? That's beyond abhorrent. I'm not attacking you but whoever it is you're saying is fine with deaths.

Welcome to the resistance 

[biobook]

The draconian public health measures are mostly instituted to the extent needed to relieve pressure on hospitals in the US/Canada/UK/France/Germany/Netherlans/Belgium/Israel. Netnayahu says so openly. They were fine with plenty of deaths in the summer so long as hospital capacity wasn't threatened.

The only time minyans were really suspended all over NY was when the hospitals were overflowing (I know it can be correlation, but I don't think it is)

I was asking for the source for your comment "The only thing the West cares about now is overcrowded hospitals."  Was that based on a survey of people in the West asking what they care about? 

Or maybe I was just hinting that all of us at times throw out comments without citing a source.

[PlatinumGuy]

I was asking for the source for your comment "The only thing the West cares about now is overcrowded hospitals."  Was that based on a survey of people in the West asking what they care about? 

Or maybe I was just hinting that all of us at times throw out comments without citing a source.

I didn't mean to guess what people how people feel about the situation. My point was the major limits are mostly imposed when needed to keep hospitals afloat. I thought that is pretty self evident over the last year, and Netanyahu has said so many times with his accordion references.

Europe was wide open in the summer despite many deaths. The threshold that bothers them is hospitals. Florida and Califronia are similar now.

[PlatinumGuy]

Or maybe I was just hinting that all of us at times throw out comments without citing a source.

I won't pretend to be providing an irrefutable analysis, it's merely my perception which I think is commonly shared. The source is government actions in large Western countries.

[PlatinumGuy]

I was asking for the source for your comment "The only thing the West cares about now is overcrowded hospitals." 

Just came across this by chance

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-12-11/icu-capacity-explained

The new stay-at-home order that hit 36 million Californians recently was triggered when several regions’ ICU availability slipped under 15%.

My understanding is that nobody knows how to decide how many deaths are too many deaths, so Western governments more or less drew the line at 'unnecessary' non-covid deaths from overflowing hospitals.

[iluv2travel]

Well it sounds like you're in BP. I'm in Lakewood.

Did you by chance discuss prevalence of flu with your doctor? If your son had it, he got it from somewhere and he perhaps exposed others too it. So its obviously totally eradicated which means its around and has potential of spreading, but the amount of cases this flu season are exponentially less than previous years.

Maybe it's only me, but even though there are all these theories mentioned as to why the flu prevalence has drastically fallen this year, I still find it to be quite peculiar.

Here's this virus (flu) that we've been dealing with for years and has a new vaccine made for it annually, and although lots of people take it there are still millions upon millions of cases every flu season. Comes this new virus (covid) we never really heard of before, and all of a sudden getting the flu has become a rarity rather than a previously common phenomenon. I'm just finding it very intriguing.

[S209]

Did you by chance discuss prevalence of flu with your doctor? If your son had it, he got it from somewhere and he perhaps exposed others too it. So its obviously totally eradicated which means its around and has potential of spreading, but the amount of cases this flu season are exponentially less than previous years.

Maybe it's only me, but even though there are all these theories mentioned as to why the flu prevalence has drastically fallen this year, I still find it to be quite peculiar.

Here's this virus (flu) that we've been dealing with for years and has a new vaccine made for it annually, and although lots of people take it there are still millions upon millions of cases every flu season. Comes this new virus (covid) we never really heard of before, and all of a sudden getting the flu has become a rarity rather than a previously common phenomenon. I'm just finding it very intriguing.

The fact that people are staying home when feeling sick even in the fiercest anti-COVID communities has got to be playing a major role.