UK COVID Mutation

[AsherO]

Speaking at the daily Downing Street news briefing on Friday, he said: "I don't think this virus is going anywhere."
And the prime minister agreed, adding: "We will have to live with coronavirus in one way or another for a long time to come."

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-virus-will-be-with-us-forever-but-controlled-admits-government-adviser-12195768

Is this the general consensus? What does Fauci have to say to this?

[Joel]

Is this the general consensus? What does Fauci have to say to this?

WHO said this back in July. Is Fauci still around?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2020/jul/13/coronavirus-no-return-to-normal-for-the-foreseeable-future-says-who-video

[AsherO]

WHO said this back in July. Is Fauci still around?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2020/jul/13/coronavirus-no-return-to-normal-for-the-foreseeable-future-says-who-video

The headline (in the URL) and one quote in the article use the word “forever”, I’m specifically asking about that. Is the general scientific consensus that COVID will be here forever?

[Joel]

The headline (in the URL) and one quote in the article use the word “forever”, I’m specifically asking about that. Is the general scientific consensus that COVID will be here forever?

Did you watch the video?
WHO thinks its staying here. are they not considered the health authority?

[AsherO]

Did you watch the video?
WHO thinks its staying here. are they not considered the health authority?

No. I didn’t watch the video. I wouldn’t trust the WHO on COVID, especially if other experts disagreed.

[iluv2travel]

The headline (in the URL) and one quote in the article use the word “forever”, I’m specifically asking about that. Is the general scientific consensus that COVID will be here forever?

My pediatrician didn't use the word forever, but the other day he told me that he believes it's here to stay.  We were discussing that his practice which is one of the largest in Brooklyn has had 0 cases of flu this season when they would have normally had seen hundreds by now.  And he knows for a fact that other pediatric as well as adult practices that he has connections to have seen 0 cases as well.  He said he can't explain how or why this happened but the consensus among doctors he has spoken to is that COVID has somehow taken the place of the flu, so to speak. 

As a side note, he also mentioned that for kids this is actually good because although he's seen COVID cases in children of his practice they were usually very mild cases. Whereas for the flu he's had really awful cases in the past including some that needed hospitalizations - nothing of the sort has happened for him with any patient having COVID.  But on the other hand COVID in adults is way worse than the flu, so....

I have a feeling we will be seeing a scientific consensus emerge that COVID is something we will have to deal with long term (but I don't mind being proven wrong about this) unless we have the vast majority of the population vaccinated and the vaccine remains effective forever.

[AsherO]

My pediatrician didn't use the word forever, but the other day he told me that he believes it's here to stay.  We were discussing that his practice which is one of the largest in Brooklyn has had 0 cases of flu this season when they would have normally had seen hundreds by now.  And he knows for a fact that other pediatric as well as adult practices that he has connections to have seen 0 cases as well.  He said he can't explain how or why this happened but the consensus among doctors he has spoken to is that COVID has somehow taken the place of the flu, so to speak. 

As a side note, he also mentioned that for kids this is actually good because although he's seen COVID cases in children of his practice they were usually very mild cases. Whereas for the flu he's had really awful cases in the past including some that needed hospitalizations - nothing of the sort has happened for him with any patient having COVID.  But on the other hand COVID in adults is way worse than the flu, so....

I have a feeling we will be seeing a scientific consensus emerge that COVID is something we will have to deal with long term (but I don't mind being proven wrong about this) unless we have the vast majority of the population vaccinated and the vaccine remains effective forever.

@biobook, what do you think of the above?

COVID replacing flu makes no sense to me, not that my opinion matters. My guess is it might be a combination of weak strains of flu this year, similar enough to last year’s strains that last year’s vaccine offers some protection, and/or because COVID measures are mitigating transmission of the flu.

[iluv2travel]

@biobook, what do you think of the above?

COVID replacing flu makes no sense to me, not that my opinion matters. My guess is it might be a combination of weak strains of flu this year, similar enough to last year’s strains that last year’s vaccine offers some protection, and/or because COVID measures are mitigating transmission of the flu.

How does last year's vaccine help for this year to get 0 positive for flu even if it's similar, if last year they got plenty of positives even with the vaccine?  My nephew got the vaccine last year and then got the flu a few weeks later.  Doctor said vaccine is only 40% effective and also explained that it only protects from specific strains and the kid might have gotten another one.

What about those that were not vaccinated at all - not last year, nor this year?

To clarify, the doctor didn't mean to say that COVID replaced flu like a car part can be replaced with the exact same car part.  He meant that from what he and other local doctors are experiencing COVID is taking the place of flu - more like a tile can take the place of the same size tile even if it's a different color and/or material.  And he also said he found it odd and inexplicable, but that those are the facts he's seeing.

[etech0]

the theory I heard is about masks and SDing

[iluv2travel]

the theory I heard is about masks and SDing

So it's completely preventing flu while COVID is out of control?

[etech0]

So it's completely preventing flu while COVID is out of control?

I didn't make it up, I just heard it.

But hasn't it been said that covid is much more contagious than flu?

[iluv2travel]

I didn't make it up, I just heard it.

But hasn't it been said that covid is much more contagious than flu?

'
I don't know about the "much more" part or even the "more" part - could be true, but I'm not sure. 

All I know is that flu was always a seasonal illness and only went around during specific months while COVID seems to be year round.  However, during the months that flu did spread, which usually peaked in January and February (as per my pediatrician) it was very contagious and there were millions of cases (according to CDC in 2018-2019 season there were 35.5 million cases in the USA).

[PlatinumGuy]

So it's completely preventing flu while COVID is out of control?

Measles is 3 times more contagious than Covid. The flu is much less contagious and the measures used to keep covid at bay are sufficient to all but eradicate the flu.

The differences are for more than one reason, the amount of replicating virus particles the carrier is shedding is different, the virus particles can survive more/less after being released, the viral load required for the virus to take root in somebody is different, the time period when the carrier is shedding can be shorter/longer, and even the amount of carriers who are shedding infectious virus particles isn't always 100%

That's how the UK variant can be more contagious than previous strains.


There is a big misconception that all of the social distancing, sanitizing etc is completely ineffective. In 1918 50m people died from a similar pandemic. We are still under 2m. The current mitigation strategies are wildly successful.

All I know is that flu was always a seasonal illness and only went around during specific months while COVID seems to be year round.  However, during the months that flu did spread, which usually peaked in January and February (as per my pediatrician) it was very contagious and there were millions of cases (according to CDC in 2018-2019 season there were 35.5 million cases in the USA).

It was more contagious then without measures. Covid with measures is R3-4 which would have been much more than 35m cases.

[iluv2travel]

We are still under 2m. The current mitigation strategies are wildly successful.

This is a great oxymoron if I've ever seen one. 

[biobook]

Speaking at the daily Downing Street news briefing on Friday, he said: "I don't think this virus is going anywhere."
And the prime minister agreed, adding: "We will have to live with coronavirus in one way or another for a long time to come."

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-virus-will-be-with-us-forever-but-controlled-admits-government-adviser-12195768

Is this the general consensus? What does Fauci have to say to this?

Yes, Fauci said the same thing last week.  Not that it WILL be around for a long time, but that it very well MIGHT.  So we shouldn't be thinking of getting back to normal, but to adjust to a new normal.
https://wwmt.com/newsletter-daily/fauci-we-have-to-prepare-for-possibility-covid-is-here-to-stay

BTW, in her presser today, Psaki said that the Covid task force will be giving weekly press conferences, so we should hear from Fauci, I think she said Wednesday but not sure about that.

@biobook, what do you think of the above?

COVID replacing flu makes no sense to me, not that my opinion matters. My guess is it might be a combination of weak strains of flu this year, similar enough to last year’s strains that last year’s vaccine offers some protection, and/or because COVID measures are mitigating transmission of the flu.

This has been noted outside of Brooklyn, too.  Lots of people trying to tease out the why and wherefore, but the covid precautions are likely a big part of that.  Staying away from others, staying home when sick, masks, handwashing.  Also, less travel, so less frequent movement of flu virus from place to place. 
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/01/11/amid-coronavirus-flu-cases-record-low/4127197001/

More ideas in this article
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03519-3 

[PlatinumGuy]

People need to define 'Covid will stay with us' more specifically.

The virus won't be extinct, but Israel is already nearly over the overwhelming severe illness aspects.

[gozalim]

This has been noted outside of Brooklyn, too.  Lots of people trying to tease out the why and wherefore, but the covid precautions are likely a big part of that.  Staying away from others, staying home when sick, masks, handwashing.  Also, less travel, so less frequent movement of flu virus from place to place. 
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/01/11/amid-coronavirus-flu-cases-record-low/4127197001/

my guess would be this especially. the one part that is being most strongly followed, even by (most) people who are ignoring the rest. that would explain

So it's completely preventing flu while COVID is out of control?

considering that supposedly, covid spreads pre-symptomatic, while flu spreads most alongside symptoms

[PlatinumGuy]

my guess would be this especially. the one part that is being most strongly followed, even by (most) people who are ignoring the rest. that would explainconsidering that supposedly, covid spreads pre-symptomatic, while flu spreads most alongside symptoms

Yup, thought of that as well.

[AsherO]

Considering that supposedly, covid spreads pre-symptomatic, while flu spreads most alongside symptoms

This is another explanation for flu mitigation: With COVID around people avoid sneezing/coughing like the plague (no pun intended), so they’re less exposed to those with flu symptoms.

[Euclid]

This is another explanation for flu mitigation: With COVID around people avoid sneezing/coughing like the plague (no pun intended), so they’re less exposed to those with flu symptoms.

https://twitter.com/chelseasomba/status/1350506322630946817