Author Topic: Predictions For What The Ds Will Do In Full Control Of DC?  (Read 5394 times)

Offline Shaya E

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Re: Predictions For What The Ds Will Do In Full Control Of DC?
« Reply #40 on: January 10, 2021, 04:24:06 PM »
The interest on debt for this year was roughly $380 billion dollars. I believe (gotta do some research) that was roughly 10% of the budget. If that goes to much higher we won't be able to get a loan without astronomical interest rates. I could see a future where the US is downgraded to a lower credit worthiness rating and only then do people realize we might be in trouble.

Offline zagguru

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Re: Predictions For What The Ds Will Do In Full Control Of DC?
« Reply #41 on: January 10, 2021, 04:24:21 PM »
Student Loan Forgiveness?

Offline Shaya E

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Re: Predictions For What The Ds Will Do In Full Control Of DC?
« Reply #42 on: January 10, 2021, 04:25:40 PM »
I don't think so. But probably something to stop future students from accumulating so much debt.

Offline zh cohen

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Re: Predictions For What The Ds Will Do In Full Control Of DC?
« Reply #43 on: January 10, 2021, 06:06:18 PM »
But probably something to stop future students from accumulating so much debt.

Only if it doesn't come at the expense of college budgets.

Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Predictions For What The Ds Will Do In Full Control Of DC?
« Reply #44 on: January 10, 2021, 06:11:34 PM »
Deficit spending and spending people money aren't mutually exclusive. All deficit spending means is that the money for the handout comes from borrowing instead of taxation. You're arguing to borrow instead of taxing. That's a valid argument, especially in today's world with practically no interest rates. But taxing on some level exists, now and always, as does borrowing (at least since 2000). With added expenses we need more income, to argue that the wealthy should foot some of that bill (and borrow the rest) doesn't have to for ulterior motives.

I would love to discuss financial theory with you but that wasn't the point of my original post.
I oppose handouts, I was just saying the handouts now don’t necessarily need to come from higher taxes now.
As for deficit spending as a whole, it has its place. Which is why its always been used to control inflation, but it does lock up our ability to borrow in the future. The higher the debt, the harder it will be to borrow. So even putting interest aside (rates won't always remain so low) you have to watch the debt.
If we use the money wisely, instead of handing it to people, we can ensure the US prospers and our credit rating remains the gold standard. Also worth noting how much of the debt is being bought by the Fed, which is right pocket owing the left pocket.

Deflation would be a much larger threat to US credit rating than a larger debt burden.
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Offline Shaya E

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Re: Predictions For What The Ds Will Do In Full Control Of DC?
« Reply #45 on: January 10, 2021, 06:11:40 PM »
Only if it doesn't come at the expense of college budgets.
Do you mean that's what you think they will do, or that's what you think they should do?

Offline yos9694

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Re: Predictions For What The Ds Will Do In Full Control Of DC?
« Reply #46 on: January 10, 2021, 06:11:44 PM »
The wealthy are doing their best to avoid it regardless of how much you're taxing them. Some succeed more, some less and some not at all. We'll take what we can get. Again, it isn't a punishment, something as to fund the handouts.

Tax avoidance is costly and takes effort, which was my point about elasticity. The rich aren't trying as hard to avoid or defer taxes when rates are lower as they are (collectively) when rates are higher. That's why tax revenue prediction models show diminishing returns for rate increases at the highest brackets. Tax increases on the middle class work better.

I’m against sending people money now. I’m for stimulating the economy with deficit spending until we start seeing inflation rise, at which point we can counter it by instituting interest rates.

If you raise interest rates at that point it's guaranteed that the US will default its debts. Also, raising interest rates is a driver of inflation, not a countermeasure

Offline yos9694

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Re: Predictions For What The Ds Will Do In Full Control Of DC?
« Reply #47 on: January 10, 2021, 06:16:16 PM »
I oppose handouts, I was just saying the handouts now don’t necessarily need to come from higher taxes now. If we use the money wisely, instead of handing it to people, we can ensure the US prospers and our credit rating remains the gold standard. Also worth noting how much of the debt is being bought by the Fed, which is right pocket owing the left pocket.

Deflation would be a much larger threat to US credit rating than a larger debt burden.
"Handouts" might be one of the smartest inventions in governmental economic policy. I fully support UBI with Fair Tax.

Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Predictions For What The Ds Will Do In Full Control Of DC?
« Reply #48 on: January 10, 2021, 06:19:19 PM »
If you raise interest rates at that point it's guaranteed that the US will default its debts. Also, raising interest rates is a driver of inflation, not a countermeasure
Fed raising the interest rate affect future debt issuances, not current debt.

Raising interest rates slows economic activity & inflation. I don’t know why you would think otherwise.
« Last Edit: January 10, 2021, 06:28:42 PM by PlatinumGuy »
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Offline Shaya E

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Re: Predictions For What The Ds Will Do In Full Control Of DC?
« Reply #49 on: January 10, 2021, 06:19:55 PM »
Tax avoidance is costly and takes effort, which was my point about elasticity. The rich aren't trying as hard to avoid or defer taxes when rates are lower as they are (collectively) when rates are higher. That's why tax revenue prediction models show diminishing returns for rate increases at the highest brackets. Tax increases on the middle class work better.

Tax raises on the highest bracket certainly yields less than tax raises on the middle class due to tax avoidance. But tax raises on the highest bracket still raises total income.

If you raise interest rates at that point it's guaranteed that the US will default its debts. Also, raising interest rates is a driver of inflation, not a countermeasure

Raising interest rates decreases spending and lowers inflationary pressures.

Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Predictions For What The Ds Will Do In Full Control Of DC?
« Reply #50 on: January 10, 2021, 06:29:02 PM »
Tax raises on the highest bracket certainly yields less than tax raises on the middle class due to tax avoidance. But tax raises on the highest bracket still raises total income.

Raising interest rates decreases spending and lowers inflationary pressures.
+1
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Re: Predictions For What The Ds Will Do In Full Control Of DC?
« Reply #51 on: January 10, 2021, 06:57:27 PM »
Do you mean that's what you think they will do, or that's what you think they should do?

The former

Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Predictions For What The Ds Will Do In Full Control Of DC?
« Reply #52 on: January 10, 2021, 07:57:49 PM »
"Handouts" might be one of the smartest inventions in governmental economic policy. I fully support UBI with Fair Tax.
Do you consider universal basic income a ‘freedom’? Is Bernie Sanders your favorite politician?
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Re: Predictions For What The Ds Will Do In Full Control Of DC?
« Reply #53 on: January 11, 2021, 07:53:47 AM »
Will all this spending will we see the inflation of the Jimmy Carter days again?

Offline Shaya E

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Re: Predictions For What The Ds Will Do In Full Control Of DC?
« Reply #54 on: January 11, 2021, 10:14:31 AM »
Will all this spending will we see the inflation of the Jimmy Carter days again?

Possibly, but the fed still has a number of tools to control inflation, such as raising the interest rate.

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Re: Predictions For What The Ds Will Do In Full Control Of DC?
« Reply #55 on: January 11, 2021, 11:24:42 AM »
I have no idea what the Ds will manage to do.

I couldn't stand BHO, and I think the ACA (commonly known as Obamacare) is a terrible piece of legislation that didn't solve anything, yet I am a direct beneficiary of that bill, as it has contributed to the expansion of my business (how ironic that when I was raising questions during a local town-hall meeting held by the congresswoman from my district, the left-wingers from Park Slope were all over me when they found out that I'm a broker, yet I probably benefited from this law way more than any of them did). So, I can only hope that whatever they do won't be too damaging to the country, and whatever damage might be done, shouldn't last too long.

It's not that I think that everything they do or propose is bad, but with the level of political corruption, populism etc. we should be very wary of what might come. Thank G-d Trump was able to nominate 3 excellent justices, let's just hope that the Ds don't create some kind of judicial coup (like what was done in Israel in the early 90s)
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Offline yos9694

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Re: Predictions For What The Ds Will Do In Full Control Of DC?
« Reply #56 on: January 11, 2021, 11:53:58 AM »
Do you consider universal basic income a ‘freedom’? Is Bernie Sanders your favorite politician?

No I consider UBI smart policy that has universal benefits. A social safety net for every working age adult that supplements their income and also provides a fallback if they become unemployed. It would allow people to take risks and try to create economic value without the anxiety of meeting their current bills. UBI is not enough to live comfortably off but it's enough to keep a person alive and fed if they are willing to scale down and that is good for society and good for young innovators.

Combining it with Fair Tax is another win. The UBI would be enough to cover the cost plus the taxes of basic living supplies. They go together like bread and butter.

Asking if Bernie Sanders is my favorite politician is a cheap shot and not value added to any discussion

Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Predictions For What The Ds Will Do In Full Control Of DC?
« Reply #57 on: January 11, 2021, 12:45:27 PM »
No I consider UBI smart policy that has universal benefits. A social safety net for every working age adult that supplements their income and also provides a fallback if they become unemployed. It would allow people to take risks and try to create economic value without the anxiety of meeting their current bills. UBI is not enough to live comfortably off but it's enough to keep a person alive and fed if they are willing to scale down and that is good for society and good for young innovators.

Combining it with Fair Tax is another win. The UBI would be enough to cover the cost plus the taxes of basic living supplies. They go together like bread and butter.

Asking if Bernie Sanders is my favorite politician is a cheap shot and not value added to any discussion
OK, but being that Bernie Sanders promotes your vision, you should be supporting him. The fact that you consider being called a Bernie Sanders supporter is a 'shot', suggests you don't really believe in his policies.
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Re: Predictions For What The Ds Will Do In Full Control Of DC?
« Reply #58 on: January 11, 2021, 01:11:21 PM »
OK, but being that Bernie Sanders promotes your vision, you should be supporting him. The fact that you consider being called a Bernie Sanders supporter is a 'shot', suggests you don't really believe in his policies.
You're making this very black and white, and it's just not. Bernie has a different approach to it than someone like Yang for example - which if I had to guess is actually the politician @yos9694 supports.

Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Predictions For What The Ds Will Do In Full Control Of DC?
« Reply #59 on: January 11, 2021, 01:17:07 PM »
You're making this very black and white, and it's just not. Bernie has a different approach to it than someone like Yang for example - which if I had to guess is actually the politician @yos9694 supports.
OK then I apologize. I don't know that much about either of them.
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