Topic Wiki

#1 Covid isn’t deadly & it only affects the elderly and immunocompromised 

Evidence for:

1) https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/07/brain-fog-heart-damage-covid-19-s-lingering-problems-alarm-scientists
2) https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/2768916
3)

Evidence against:


Arguments against:
1)
2)
3)

Corresponding Refutations:
1)
2)
3)

Quote
Of the 100 included patients, 53 (53%) were male, and the mean (SD) age was 49 (14) years. The median (IQR) time interval between COVID-19 diagnosis and CMR was 71 (64-92) days. Of the 100 patients recently recovered from COVID-19, 67 (67%) recovered at home, while 33 (33%) required hospitalization. At the time of CMR, high-sensitivity troponin T (hsTnT) was detectable (greater than 3 pg/mL) in 71 patients recently recovered from COVID-19 (71%) and significantly elevated (greater than 13.9 pg/mL) in 5 patients (5%). Compared with healthy controls and risk factor–matched controls, patients recently recovered from COVID-19 had lower left ventricular ejection fraction, higher left ventricle volumes, and raised native T1 and T2. A total of 78 patients recently recovered from COVID-19 (78%) had abnormal CMR findings, including raised myocardial native T1 (n = 73), raised myocardial native T2 (n = 60), myocardial late gadolinium enhancement (n = 32), or pericardial enhancement (n = 22).



#4 Masks don’t help


Evidence for:


1)

Quote
As of August 11, 24 (23%) Kansas counties had a mask mandate in place, and 81 did not. Mandated counties accounted for two thirds of the Kansas population (1,960,703 persons; 67.3%)*** and were spread throughout the state, although they tended to cluster together. Six (25%) mandated and 13 (16%) nonmandated counties were metropolitan areas.††† Thirteen (54%) mandated counties and seven (9%) nonmandated counties had implemented at least one other public health mitigation strategy not related to the use of masks (e.g., limits on size of gatherings and occupancy for restaurants). During June 1–7, 2020, the 7-day rolling average of daily COVID-19 incidence among counties that ultimately had a mask mandate was three cases per 100,000, and among counties that did not, was four per 100,000 (Table). By the week of the governor’s executive order requiring masks (July 3–9), COVID-19 incidence had increased 467% to 17 per 100,000 in mandated counties and 50% to six per 100,000 among nonmandated counties. By August 17–23, 2020, the 7-day rolling average COVID-19 incidence had decreased by 6% to 16 cases per 100,000 among mandated counties and increased by 100% to 12 per 100,000 among nonmandated counties.



https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6947e2.htm

2) https://www.ajtmh.org/view/journals/tpmd/103/6/article-p2400.xml?tab_body=fulltext

3) https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.31.20048652v1.full-text

4) https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/10.1377/hlthaff.2020.00818

5) https://www.journalofinfection.com/article/S0163-4453(20)30235-8/fulltext

6) Canada:
Quote
We find that, in the first few weeks after implementation, mask mandates are associated with a reduction of 25 percent in the weekly number of new COVID-19 cases.

https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w27891/w27891.pdf



Evidence against:


Arguments against:
1)
2)
3)

Corresponding Refutations:
1)
2)
3)

Author Topic: DDF Mythbusters: The 10 Covid Fallacies  (Read 1783 times)

Offline PlatinumGuy

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DDF Mythbusters: The 10 Covid Fallacies
« on: February 10, 2021, 09:18:17 PM »
Putting this forward as a draft. Perhaps we should make a wiki to centralize the refutations and supporting evidence to each common claim.

#1 Covid isn’t deadly & it only affects the elderly and immunocompromised

There is significant excess mortality everywhere where Covid ran wild.

There is overwhelming evidence of long term damage occurring in a large percentage of young covid patients without any pre-existing conditions

Spread always starts in younger demos and inevitably filters through to the elderly and LTC facilities. Sweden utterly failed in their strategy of protecting the high risk. A year into this, 25% of Covid deaths are still in old age homes. If you infect somebody, it is sparking a fire you cannot contain and cannot estimate how far it will go (in Hilchos Nizkin one is Chayev for all damage his flames inflict provided they are propelled by prevalent natural powers). 1 person is likely responsible for ~50,000 cases in New Orleans.

#2 Gatherings aren't dangerous / people who don't wear masks don't die

There have been several threads dedicated to this argument. Most drunk drivers get home safely. The fact that many gatherings go on without creating any infections, in no way proves they didn't raise the likelihood of larger outbreaks.

The fact that many people don't wear masks and live on, in no way proves people who wear masks aren't a little safer.

As an illustration, Republican politicians had ~3x covid infections and deaths than Democrats.

#3 Protective measures aren’t foolproof

We follow safety precautions that offer partial mitigation even if they don’t always work, such as seatbelts and many medical treatments

#4 Masks don’t help

Sneeze into your mask and see the difference. We understand why masks would help, and there are CDC evaluations showing outcomes diverged significantly between similarly situated jurisdictions depending on mask mandated


#5 Kids/schools don’t spread Covid

Baseless. The most extreme studies only show a 50% reduction in transmission in kids under 10. That it still plenty of transmission.  There is also overwhelming evidence the UK Mutation B117 is highly transmittable even amongst kids and infants.

#6 Exposure != infection

Many people are exposed to positive Covid carriers but happened not to be infected. This can be for a large variety of reasons: The carrier was never replicating the virus enough to spread to another person (low viral loads), by the time it started replicating enough, the carrier’s body neutralized the virus sufficiently for it to be too weak to infect another person, the time interval between when the replicating begun and neutralizing was brief (this is likely why some family members get infected and not other), you can just be lucky and the virus particles die or disperse before infecting somebody, or somebody’s body fended off an infection before it elicited an enduring immune response.

#7 We are immune

There are many documented cases of individuals who had covid and tested positive for antibodies, and got reinfected. There are also some whose original infection gets reactivated. We know this is rare, but it isn’t clear yet how rare.

On a community level, we know from Manaus, Brazil that even if 75%+ of a community is immune, Covid can still spread rapidly in a large outbreaks. Part of the reason is because of unequal dispersion of super-spreaders - since 1 person can infect 100, herd immunity doesn’t prevent the virus from spreading. In a gathering of 1000 people, there are still 300 susceptible patients

Many frum communities believes themselves immune only to be hit with large outbreaks

#8 Demonize the messenger

We never put our faith in a single person or establish reality based on one mans’ say. Moshe Rabeinu was wrong several times. We establish medical realities by the consensus of educated opinions, not by any sole authority. Fauci, the dems, and the media may be the worst evil, but it doesn’t make everything they say wrong.

#9 Precautions are more dangerous than the virus

Closing schools is a powerful and dangerous medicine, but overall suicide deaths are not higher in 2020. There are many protective measures that can be taken without any significant tradeoff. More than 1,000,000,000 wear a mask every day, so it is objectively not that difficult. Large weddings and gatherings can be avoided.

#10 Everybody will get covid sooner or later

In the US and Israel, more people have been vaccinated than have tested positive. This is less than a year in. It is quite foreseeable to avoid the infection altogether.
« Last Edit: February 10, 2021, 11:21:23 PM by PlatinumGuy »
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Re: DDF Mythbusters: The 10 Covid Fallacies
« Reply #1 on: February 10, 2021, 09:22:53 PM »
We're exactly one year from the Wuhan lockdown. That any of this even needs to still be addressed is soul-sucking.
When you find yourself agreeing with me more often than not, it's time for a cheshbon hanefesh.

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Re: DDF Mythbusters: The 10 Covid Fallacies
« Reply #2 on: February 10, 2021, 09:41:04 PM »
You make some of the same mistakes as the people you are refuting make in making strawman arguments.

For instance, #4

Yes, masks have been proven to help in an individual basis. But masks mandates have not been proven to lower infection. For every report the CDC mentions, there are another couple that show there hasn't been a reduction in infections in cities with mass mask wearing compared to cities without mass mask wearing.

#5

The argument isn't that kids don't spread it at all, but that it is significantly less, and it is significantly less dangerous for kids.

#8

If the purpose is to convince people, then why include inflammatory statements about Moshe Rabeinu? Kol haomer... Eino ela toeh. You can make the point of being mekabel es haemes without such statements.

#9

Suicide isn't the only sacrifice, and from what I've read, suicide numbers tend to lag a significant amount of time, so I'd hold off on taking that victory lap. Minimizing all the other sacrifices isn't doing "your side" by favors.

But perhaps most of all, I know it's a draft, but there isn't even one shred of evidence for any of your assertions.

I agree with most of what you're saying, and I think a list of accurate information with answers to common questions is useful, just not in a way that discounts legitimate differing opinions, belittles questioners, or exaggerates.
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Re: DDF Mythbusters: The 10 Covid Fallacies
« Reply #3 on: February 10, 2021, 09:57:08 PM »
You missed:

I stay away from old people, so I can go on with life as usual.

Frum communities have already reached he(a)rd immunity.

Vaccines aren't proven.

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Re: DDF Mythbusters: The 10 Covid Fallacies
« Reply #4 on: February 10, 2021, 10:07:43 PM »
masks mandates have not been proven to lower infection. For every report the CDC mentions, there are another couple that show there hasn't been a reduction in infections in cities with mass mask wearing compared to cities without mass mask wearing.

Masks work. There aren't two sides to it. It has been proven conclusively here:

1)

Quote
As of August 11, 24 (23%) Kansas counties had a mask mandate in place, and 81 did not. Mandated counties accounted for two thirds of the Kansas population (1,960,703 persons; 67.3%)*** and were spread throughout the state, although they tended to cluster together. Six (25%) mandated and 13 (16%) nonmandated counties were metropolitan areas.††† Thirteen (54%) mandated counties and seven (9%) nonmandated counties had implemented at least one other public health mitigation strategy not related to the use of masks (e.g., limits on size of gatherings and occupancy for restaurants). During June 1–7, 2020, the 7-day rolling average of daily COVID-19 incidence among counties that ultimately had a mask mandate was three cases per 100,000, and among counties that did not, was four per 100,000 (Table). By the week of the governor’s executive order requiring masks (July 3–9), COVID-19 incidence had increased 467% to 17 per 100,000 in mandated counties and 50% to six per 100,000 among nonmandated counties. By August 17–23, 2020, the 7-day rolling average COVID-19 incidence had decreased by 6% to 16 cases per 100,000 among mandated counties and increased by 100% to 12 per 100,000 among nonmandated counties.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6947e2.htm

2) https://www.ajtmh.org/view/journals/tpmd/103/6/article-p2400.xml?tab_body=fulltext

3) https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.31.20048652v1.full-text

4) https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/10.1377/hlthaff.2020.00818

5) https://www.journalofinfection.com/article/S0163-4453(20)30235-8/fulltext



There is precisely zero evidence to the contrary. The Denmark study has been thoroughly debunked. Feel free to post it here for debunkments.

Adding the information to a Wiki as potential template.

Vaccines aren't proven.
We need a separate thread to combat vaccine hesitancy and FUD.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

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Re: DDF Mythbusters: The 10 Covid Fallacies
« Reply #5 on: February 10, 2021, 10:27:28 PM »
You make some of the same mistakes as the people you are refuting make in making strawman arguments.

For instance, #4

Yes, masks have been proven to help in an individual basis. But masks mandates have not been proven to lower infection. For every report the CDC mentions, there are another couple that show there hasn't been a reduction in infections in cities with mass mask wearing compared to cities without mass mask wearing.

#5

The argument isn't that kids don't spread it at all, but that it is significantly less, and it is significantly less dangerous for kids.

#8

If the purpose is to convince people, then why include inflammatory statements about Moshe Rabeinu? Kol haomer... Eino ela toeh. You can make the point of being mekabel es haemes without such statements.

#9

Suicide isn't the only sacrifice, and from what I've read, suicide numbers tend to lag a significant amount of time, so I'd hold off on taking that victory lap. Minimizing all the other sacrifices isn't doing "your side" by favors.

But perhaps most of all, I know it's a draft, but there isn't even one shred of evidence for any of your assertions.

I agree with most of what you're saying, and I think a list of accurate information with answers to common questions is useful, just not in a way that discounts legitimate differing opinions, belittles questioners, or exaggerates.
Re #4 there is a big difference between mask wearing and mask mandates. The myth is about mask wearing. From what I understand, what is studied is areas with mask mandates. Correct me if I'm wrong.

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Re: DDF Mythbusters: The 10 Covid Fallacies
« Reply #6 on: February 10, 2021, 10:34:46 PM »
Re #4 there is a big difference between mask wearing and mask mandates. The myth is about mask wearing. From what I understand, what is studied is areas with mask mandates. Correct me if I'm wrong.

Exactly. I'm not able to read the scientific studies posted, but one doesn't need to have studies done to see that covid case and death rates, in states and cities, do not correlate to mask mandates or even mask wearing.

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Re: DDF Mythbusters: The 10 Covid Fallacies
« Reply #7 on: February 10, 2021, 10:35:36 PM »
one doesn't need to have studies done to see that covid case and death rates, in states and cities, do not correlate to mask mandates or even mask wearing.

But, they do.

See #2
« Last Edit: February 10, 2021, 10:46:15 PM by PlatinumGuy »
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

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Re: DDF Mythbusters: The 10 Covid Fallacies
« Reply #8 on: February 10, 2021, 10:38:29 PM »
Exactly. I'm not able to read the scientific studies posted, but one doesn't need to have studies done to see that covid case and death rates, in states and cities, do not correlate to mask mandates or even mask wearing.
I disagree. It's very difficult to study mask wearing, because it's not done properly by so many people. I'm pretty sure they've only studied mask mandates places, but then the news articles have a big headline "masks don't prevent coronavirus", when in fact, it is the mandate which doesn't necessarily do the trick

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Re: DDF Mythbusters: The 10 Covid Fallacies
« Reply #9 on: February 10, 2021, 10:44:47 PM »
I stay away from old people, so I can go on with life as usual.
edited to include it in #1

Frum communities have already reached he(a)rd immunity.
Aka Covid Fallacy #7
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

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Re: DDF Mythbusters: The 10 Covid Fallacies
« Reply #10 on: February 10, 2021, 11:17:36 PM »
Could I already put a link to this in the popcorn thread, or should I troll a little first?

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Re: DDF Mythbusters: The 10 Covid Fallacies
« Reply #11 on: February 10, 2021, 11:21:40 PM »
Could I already put a link to this in the popcorn thread, or should I troll a little first?
Better popcorn than crickets
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

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Re: DDF Mythbusters: The 10 Covid Fallacies
« Reply #12 on: February 10, 2021, 11:30:20 PM »
Better popcorn than crickets
In my view, the list of 10 is written in the most extreme manner, thus making it easy to debunk each claim.

"Covid isn’t deadly & it only affects the elderly and immunocompromised"

That is the type of rhetoric that has been circulating in the early days of the pandemic, and it's doubtful that you'd hear that anywhere today. It would be more useful to debunk the type of claims you'd hear today.

"Covid is statistically only a small risk to young people, and it is therefore not worth it to risk my mental health and comfort to be vigilant."

Debunk that. It's the type of claims you would hear now. Yes, it's easier to debunk the extremes, but it's not going to change anyone's mind here.

That was my impression when I opened this thread. Take it or leave it, but if you leave it you don't get your money back, unless you have Amex return protection.

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Re: DDF Mythbusters: The 10 Covid Fallacies
« Reply #13 on: February 10, 2021, 11:50:00 PM »
"Covid is statistically only a small risk to young people, and it is therefore not worth it to risk my mental health and comfort to be vigilant."

Debunk that

 
There is overwhelming evidence of long term damage occurring in a large percentage of young covid patients without any pre-existing conditions

I was attempting a sketch a framework, not to singlehandedly debunk every fiction out there, but I just added to the Wiki some material on long term damage to healthy young people.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/2768916

Quote
As of August 11, 24 (23%) Kansas counties had a mask mandate in place, and 81 did not. Mandated counties accounted for two thirds of the Kansas population (1,960,703 persons; 67.3%)*** and were spread throughout the state, although they tended to cluster together. Six (25%) mandated and 13 (16%) nonmandated counties were metropolitan areas.††† Thirteen (54%) mandated counties and seven (9%) nonmandated counties had implemented at least one other public health mitigation strategy not related to the use of masks (e.g., limits on size of gatherings and occupancy for restaurants). During June 1–7, 2020, the 7-day rolling average of daily COVID-19 incidence among counties that ultimately had a mask mandate was three cases per 100,000, and among counties that did not, was four per 100,000 (Table). By the week of the governor’s executive order requiring masks (July 3–9), COVID-19 incidence had increased 467% to 17 per 100,000 in mandated counties and 50% to six per 100,000 among nonmandated counties. By August 17–23, 2020, the 7-day rolling average COVID-19 incidence had decreased by 6% to 16 cases per 100,000 among mandated counties and increased by 100% to 12 per 100,000 among nonmandated counties.

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Re: DDF Mythbusters: The 10 Covid Fallacies
« Reply #14 on: February 11, 2021, 12:05:20 AM »
I disagree. It's very difficult to study mask wearing, because it's not done properly by so many people. I'm pretty sure they've only studied mask mandates places, but then the news articles have a big headline "masks don't prevent coronavirus", when in fact, it is the mandate which doesn't necessarily do the trick

I think we agree. I started by stating that masks do work to stop the spread of Covid. The question is if mask mandates don't work. People not wearing them correctly, or not wearing the correct ones would be an obvious reason.

But, they do.

See #2


You don't have to be a scientist. Pick any jurisdiction in Florida, compare it to a heavily masked one in California. Then do the same in NY in the Bronx and in Brooklyn, or even neighboring areas within Brooklyn itself, where the frum community is largely unmasked and the non Jewish community is masked heavily (double these days), and the death and case rate of the frum communities lies in the middle of the pack.
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