Author Topic: Ice Age in Texas  (Read 3270 times)

Online avromie7

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Re: Ice Age in Texas
« Reply #60 on: March 04, 2021, 02:51:44 PM »
You're arguing against the idea that NG fared worse than renewables (something discussed upthread), but that wasn't remotely discussed in the video. They had a graphic up there during the paragraph you quoted from showing that NG is the highest share of their energy supply at 46% (but you didn't bother with the video, so...). The part you actually quote says explicitly "in terms of magnitude and impact" - which pretty clearly is not by %.
Yeah, that was the point of the video.
This is not an either or. The producers aren't saying we're not gonna spend money on winterization because they need to spend it on renewables. They're saying that because they're not forced to spend money on winterization.
I actually did watch the video. I didn't take notes on it so I don't remember every detail of it.

Yes more NG was offline than wind, but wind was affected by the storm way more than NG. They don't tell you that because it makes renewables look bad, instead they said "Every one of these systems failed in part, and it had nothing to do with the type of energy..." they create the illusion that NG fared worse that wind which is far from true.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Online skyguy918

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Re: Ice Age in Texas
« Reply #61 on: March 04, 2021, 03:05:08 PM »
I actually did watch the video. I didn't take notes on it so I don't remember every detail of it.

Yes more NG was offline than wind, but wind was affected by the storm way more than NG. They don't tell you that because it makes renewables look bad, instead they said "Every one of these systems failed in part, and it had nothing to do with the type of energy..." they create the illusion that NG fared worse that wind which is far from true.
"Every one of these systems failed in part, and it had nothing to do with the type of energy..."  in no way shape or form implies "that NG fared worse than wind which is far from true." You're really strawmanning this thing hard.

Online avromie7

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Re: Ice Age in Texas
« Reply #62 on: March 04, 2021, 03:12:46 PM »
"Every one of these systems failed in part, and it had nothing to do with the type of energy..."  in no way shape or form implies "that NG fared worse than wind which is far from true." You're really strawmanning this thing hard.
That together with this from your post that I was replying to clearly implies that NG fared worse than wind
You're arguing against the idea that NG fared worse than renewables (something discussed upthread), but that wasn't remotely discussed in the video. They had a graphic up there during the paragraph you quoted from showing that NG is the highest share of their energy supply at 46% (but you didn't bother with the video, so...). The part you actually quote says explicitly "in terms of magnitude and impact" - which pretty clearly is not by %.
Yeah, that was the point of the video.
This is not an either or. The producers aren't saying we're not gonna spend money on winterization because they need to spend it on renewables. They're saying that because they're not forced to spend money on winterization.

I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Online whYME

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Re: Ice Age in Texas
« Reply #63 on: March 04, 2021, 03:18:49 PM »
You're really strawmanning this thing hard.
-1

Someone like me who was not really paying attention and has no clue what happened in Texas drew exactly the conclusion they wanted -that NG was effected by the cold far worse than renewables. Exactly like @avromie7 said.

Online skyguy918

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Re: Ice Age in Texas
« Reply #64 on: March 04, 2021, 03:33:26 PM »
That together with this from your post that I was replying to clearly implies that NG fared worse than wind
-1

Someone like me who was not really paying attention and has no clue what happened in Texas drew exactly the conclusion they wanted -that NG was effected by the cold far worse than renewables. Exactly like @avromie7 said.
If that was the message they were trying to push, they did a terrible job. If your takeaway is the 'NG vs renewables' thing instead of 'all production types must be ready for extreme weather', it's probably because you saw the Vox logo, not because the video implied that. I agree that highlighting NG is a little strange, but it had the largest impact because it's the largest share of their energy (even if it fared better percentage wise).

Online avromie7

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Re: Ice Age in Texas
« Reply #65 on: March 04, 2021, 03:34:52 PM »
If that was the message they were trying to push, they did a terrible job. If your takeaway is the 'NG vs renewables' thing instead of 'all production types must be ready for extreme weather', it's probably because you saw the Vox logo, not because the video implied that. I agree that highlighting NG is a little strange, but it had the largest impact because it's the largest share of their energy (even if it fared better percentage wise).
Clearly not
-1

Someone like me who was not really paying attention and has no clue what happened in Texas drew exactly the conclusion they wanted -that NG was effected by the cold far worse than renewables. Exactly like @avromie7 said.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

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Re: Ice Age in Texas
« Reply #66 on: March 04, 2021, 03:40:08 PM »
Clearly not
Right, because 2 of the most partisan forum members seeing the Vox logo and deciding the video is bashing NG in favor of renewables is indicative of the actual content. ::)

Online aygart

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Re: Ice Age in Texas
« Reply #67 on: March 04, 2021, 03:58:10 PM »
Just because I actually do want to hear what you have to say about it, I pulled the subs from the video. I'm skipping the beginning, where they talk more about the interconnections, and leaving in the rest, which focuses on weather and preparedness. The italicized parts are their expert speaking - a Princeton professor named Jesse Jenkins. Obviously some of it references visuals that you'll have to watch the video to get.

This part being discussed here is absolutely amazing and correct. The issue with the largest impact was how Natural Gas infrastructure was unprepared. Renewables had a large part to play in why the impact was as much as it actually was (poorly written sentence, but not able to fix it now), but the NG was the big issue. When a power plant cannot get the fuel it needs to generate electricity there absolutely will be shortages. That is exactly the same thing which caused rolling blackouts in the Northeast in 2018. TX chose not to learn the lessons from it.

This has little if anything to do with deregulation. The infrastructure STILL IS regulated. Gas is almost fully regulated and definitely more regulated than in the NE. TX simply chose not to create the needed regulations.
Feelings don't care about your facts

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Re: Ice Age in Texas
« Reply #68 on: March 04, 2021, 04:04:36 PM »
This has little if anything to do with deregulation. The infrastructure STILL IS regulated. Gas is almost fully regulated and definitely more regulated than in the NE. TX simply chose not to create the needed regulations.
Yeah, I realized afterward that deregulation probably has more a specific meaning in this context that I wasn't picking up on. They're trying to say that preparedness of energy producers for extreme weather events - which are increasing in frequency (that part is definitely a Vox/left talking point) - should be mandated/regulated.
Quote
...create winterization standards for these energy sources. The Texas utility commission did make those standards -- but also made them voluntary. So most companies didnít winterize.
Voluntary just doesn't cut it.

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Re: Ice Age in Texas
« Reply #69 on: March 04, 2021, 04:16:50 PM »
The argument that wind was more offline than NG conveniently ignores the fact wind was deliberately not winterized bc the plan was for wind to go offline and be substituted by NG.

Imagine if a father agrees to pick up the kid instead of the mother, and then doesn't show up. Neither parent showed up, but it's 100% the fathers fault. So yes, wind was down, but it was never expected to be up. NG is the one that underperformed. NG and wind were both down, but it's mostly NGs fault.

And no, it isn't an inherent flaw in wind generation, it works fine in Antartica, Canada, Alaska, Iowa, Denmark, Sweden, and many much colder place.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר Ė יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Online whYME

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Re: Ice Age in Texas
« Reply #70 on: March 04, 2021, 04:40:19 PM »
If that was the message they were trying to push, they did a terrible job. If your takeaway is the 'NG vs renewables' thing instead of 'all production types must be ready for extreme weather', it's probably because you saw the Vox logo, not because the video implied that. I agree that highlighting NG is a little strange, but it had the largest impact because it's the largest share of their energy (even if it fared better percentage wise).


And you're accusing him of strawmanning...

Of course that wasn't the main point/takeaway of the video. Nobody claimed it was. He pointed out how in the course of making their main point --which everyone here agrees on--
This is overall the biggest culprit, the lack of preparation for such cold weather.
they used selectively (dishonestly?) presented data to push a narrative. And I said that it worked on me.

If your takeaway is the 'NG vs renewables' thing instead of 'all production types must be ready for extreme weather'
Not at all. In fact just the opposite. Until I saw his post I thought I had picked up a random factoid that NG was hit harder than renewables. (although, as you said, seeing as it was coming from Vox I should've known better.)

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Re: Ice Age in Texas
« Reply #71 on: March 04, 2021, 04:47:10 PM »
The argument that wind was more offline than NG conveniently ignores the fact wind was deliberately not winterized bc the plan was for wind to go offline and be substituted by NG.

Imagine if a father agrees to pick up the kid instead of the mother, and then doesn't show up. Neither parent showed up, but it's 100% the fathers fault. So yes, wind was down, but it was never expected to be up. NG is the one that underperformed. NG and wind were both down, but it's mostly NGs fault.

And no, it isn't an inherent flaw in wind generation, it works fine in Antartica, Canada, Alaska, Iowa, Denmark, Sweden, and many much colder place.
But NG works fine in all climates as well. Everything can work if you prep properly.

Online avromie7

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Re: Ice Age in Texas
« Reply #72 on: March 04, 2021, 04:53:56 PM »
The argument that wind was more offline than NG conveniently ignores the fact wind was deliberately not winterized bc the plan was for wind to go offline and be substituted by NG.

Imagine if a father agrees to pick up the kid instead of the mother, and then doesn't show up. Neither parent showed up, but it's 100% the fathers fault. So yes, wind was down, but it was never expected to be up. NG is the one that underperformed. NG and wind were both down, but it's mostly NGs fault.

And no, it isn't an inherent flaw in wind generation, it works fine in Antartica, Canada, Alaska, Iowa, Denmark, Sweden, and many much colder place.
The increase in wind directly correlates to the decrease in coal over the past 15 or so years. While this may have been the intention, the supply of thermals definitely did not keep up with the need to cover for wind. It's very expensive to keep power plants operational just for the once in a lifetime storm that takes out all your renewable power.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Online aygart

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Re: Ice Age in Texas
« Reply #73 on: March 04, 2021, 05:35:42 PM »
- should be mandated/regulated.Voluntary just doesn't cut it.
Agreed. Infrastructure is part of the regulator's responsibility and they goofed.
The argument that wind was more offline than NG conveniently ignores the fact wind was deliberately not winterized bc the plan was for wind to go offline and be substituted by NG.

Imagine if a father agrees to pick up the kid instead of the mother, and then doesn't show up. Neither parent showed up, but it's 100% the fathers fault. So yes, wind was down, but it was never expected to be up. NG is the one that underperformed. NG and wind were both down, but it's mostly NGs fault.

And no, it isn't an inherent flaw in wind generation, it works fine in Antartica, Canada, Alaska, Iowa, Denmark, Sweden, and many much colder place.
It is not ENTIRELY an inherent flaw in wind generation, but it partially is. Not because of the cold per see, but because of the general unreliability of wind and solar. This makes it dangerous to be over reliant on them at this point. Once more efficient energy storage is in place that will help, but even then, it will only help for short term down time. This does not take away from the general problem of how the entire TX grid was wholly unprepared for such cold weather. That aspect is not attributable to renewables at all other than possibly their making other forms of generation non-viable due to their abilities to get government subsidies. THis is a big part of the MOPR proceedings at FERC to try and mitigate exactly this issue in the northeast.
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Re: Ice Age in Texas
« Reply #74 on: March 04, 2021, 05:47:40 PM »
Not sure if this point has been made, but isn't it a lot more economical to winterize wind generation in Alaska compared to a state that rarely has freezing weather? Winterizing 20% of your energy to prevent a 100 year event seems like an enormous waste of money to maintain a fragile system. It may be a better investment to add NG capacity with a far lower percentage of failure instead of investing in winterization.