Author Topic: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?  (Read 82004 times)

Offline ExGingi

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Nov 2015
  • Posts: 13273
  • Total likes: 5058
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 17
    • View Profile
  • Location: 770
Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #100 on: April 13, 2021, 02:23:34 PM »
That's a stretch. Italy, Greece, Portugal are the only countries with a shrinking population that can plausibly be defined as Western economies, but they are dramatically different than the US.

You consistently overestimate the likelihood of the American birth rate going off a cliff.

How about France and Germany without their Arab population?

Also Russia, while not Western, is a major northern hemisphere economy (as are Japan and China).
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline PlatinumGuy

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Apr 2011
  • Posts: 14757
  • Total likes: 2313
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 11
    • View Profile
Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #101 on: April 13, 2021, 02:38:10 PM »
How about France and Germany without their Arab population?
How is that relevant? The population is growing. Are you anticipating a shortage of migrants?

Also Russia, while not Western, is a major northern hemisphere economy (as are Japan and China).
China has a rapidly growing population
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline gozalim

  • Dansdeals Presidential Platinum Elite
  • ********
  • Join Date: Oct 2008
  • Posts: 4043
  • Total likes: 572
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 0
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #102 on: April 13, 2021, 03:53:20 PM »
How is that relevant? The population is growing. Are you anticipating a shortage of migrants?
China has a rapidly growing population
it is ceasing to be western in direct proportion to its population growth

Offline ExGingi

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Nov 2015
  • Posts: 13273
  • Total likes: 5058
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 17
    • View Profile
  • Location: 770
Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #103 on: April 13, 2021, 04:13:43 PM »

China has a rapidly growing population

Woman fertility rate of under 2 and a negative immigration balance doesn't make for "rapid population growth". While there are currently more births than deaths, the trajectory is for that to change.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2020/09/03/chinas-population-to-drop-by-half-immigration-helps-us-labor-force/?sh=604b12123d65
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline ExGingi

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Nov 2015
  • Posts: 13273
  • Total likes: 5058
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 17
    • View Profile
  • Location: 770
Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #104 on: April 21, 2021, 10:12:39 AM »
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline yuneeq

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *********
  • Join Date: Jan 2013
  • Posts: 8079
  • Total likes: 2803
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 10
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Location: NJ
Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #105 on: April 21, 2021, 12:22:35 PM »

I thought suburban markets are hot and urban is flat?
"If you fall, I will be there." -Floor

Offline PlatinumGuy

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Apr 2011
  • Posts: 14757
  • Total likes: 2313
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 11
    • View Profile
Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #106 on: April 25, 2021, 05:16:55 AM »
I thought suburban markets are hot and urban is flat?
Toronto was overheated before 2020. This isn't Covid related.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Online aygart

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: May 2008
  • Posts: 14791
  • Total likes: 10408
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 14
    • View Profile
    • Lower Watt Energy Brokers
  • Programs: www.lowerwatt.com
Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #107 on: April 25, 2021, 10:13:34 AM »
Toronto was overheated before 2020. This isn't Covid related.
The tweet is not Toronto specific at all.
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline Lurker

  • Dansdeals Presidential Platinum Elite
  • ********
  • Join Date: Jul 2019
  • Posts: 4836
  • Total likes: 5373
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 2
    • View Profile
  • Location: As always, silence is NOT an admission of agreement on DDF. It just means that people lack the stamina to keep on arguing with made up "facts", illogical arguments, deceiving statements, nasty and degrading comments, and fuzzy math. - @yelped
Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #108 on: April 25, 2021, 10:58:46 AM »
The tweet is not Toronto specific at all.

The research from the tweet is, and unless this "bubble" started 20 years ago and is still going strong, it's some really bad research.
Failing at maintaining Lurker status.

Offline ExGingi

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Nov 2015
  • Posts: 13273
  • Total likes: 5058
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 17
    • View Profile
  • Location: 770
Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #109 on: April 25, 2021, 11:25:04 AM »
https://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoughts/stumbling-to-scarcity#plastic

After reading this, as well as seeing the following tweets:


Reminded me of a time several years ago when there was a lot of talk of inflation. While the Fed was saying no core inflation, the memes were running wild about no inflation if one doesn't need to pay rent, doesn't need to eat, etc.

However, I am quite convinced that while we are seeing transient inflation pressures currently, as mentioned in the Mauldin article, these things are transitory by nature (anyone remembers the saying: "the solution for $100/bbl oil is $100/bbl oil"?) as human nature hasn't changed, and things will self adjust in due time (not such a long horizon). However strong DEFLATIONARY forces that exist, don't have a way of self-resolving so quickly, as these are generational forces (huge debt overhang, slowing population growth or outright shrinking and aging population, automation, etc.)

And to counter things in the short term, you actually have this:


I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline AsherO

  • Global Moderator
  • Dansdeals Lifetime 20K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • **********
  • Join Date: May 2008
  • Posts: 28551
  • Total likes: 5426
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 78
    • View Profile
  • Location: NYC
Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #110 on: April 25, 2021, 12:13:35 PM »
And to counter things in the short term, you actually have this:


Kindly explain this chart for financial simpletons like me. Thanks!

Offline ExGingi

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Nov 2015
  • Posts: 13273
  • Total likes: 5058
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 17
    • View Profile
  • Location: 770
Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #111 on: April 25, 2021, 12:59:26 PM »
Kindly explain this chart for financial simpletons like me. Thanks!

Increased money supply is being countered by falling velocity of money.

In very simplistic terms, if the money supply was $100 and it moved through the economy (by virtue of various transactions) 12 times a year, and then it was increased to $200, but economic activity slowed by 50% and that $200 is only moving through the economy 6 times per year, nothing really changed as far as GDP growth or inflation.

John Mauldin had a good write-up a few years ago. (Oh, how time flies, it was more than a decade ago!)

https://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoughts/the-implications-of-velocity-mwo031210

« Last Edit: April 25, 2021, 01:03:05 PM by ExGingi »
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline Kobe Bryant

  • Dansdeals Presidential Platinum Elite
  • ********
  • Join Date: Jan 2017
  • Posts: 3364
  • Total likes: 1968
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 15
    • View Profile
Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #112 on: April 25, 2021, 01:45:19 PM »
Increased money supply is being countered by falling velocity of money.

In very simplistic terms, if the money supply was $100 and it moved through the economy (by virtue of various transactions) 12 times a year, and then it was increased to $200, but economic activity slowed by 50% and that $200 is only moving through the economy 6 times per year, nothing really changed as far as GDP growth or inflation.

John Mauldin had a good write-up a few years ago. (Oh, how time flies, it was more than a decade ago!)

https://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoughts/the-implications-of-velocity-mwo031210
Following that logic, once economic activity picks up...

Offline ExGingi

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Nov 2015
  • Posts: 13273
  • Total likes: 5058
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 17
    • View Profile
  • Location: 770
Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #113 on: April 25, 2021, 04:31:05 PM »
Following that logic, once economic activity picks up...

Nice thinking, except that the deflationary forces are still out there on a much larger level.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline Kobe Bryant

  • Dansdeals Presidential Platinum Elite
  • ********
  • Join Date: Jan 2017
  • Posts: 3364
  • Total likes: 1968
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 15
    • View Profile
Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #114 on: May 02, 2021, 09:07:14 AM »

Offline AussieMan

  • Dansdeals Platinum Elite
  • ****
  • Join Date: Feb 2018
  • Posts: 259
  • Total likes: 28
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 0
    • View Profile
Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #115 on: May 02, 2021, 12:48:09 PM »

Offline PlatinumGuy

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Apr 2011
  • Posts: 14757
  • Total likes: 2313
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 11
    • View Profile
Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #116 on: May 02, 2021, 06:59:37 PM »
Inflation is when labor and food cost more. Money cheapening relative to some assets isn't inflation until it cheapens relative to all assets.

״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline Kobe Bryant

  • Dansdeals Presidential Platinum Elite
  • ********
  • Join Date: Jan 2017
  • Posts: 3364
  • Total likes: 1968
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 15
    • View Profile
Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #117 on: May 09, 2021, 12:06:05 AM »

Offline ExGingi

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Nov 2015
  • Posts: 13273
  • Total likes: 5058
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 17
    • View Profile
  • Location: 770
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline ExGingi

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Nov 2015
  • Posts: 13273
  • Total likes: 5058
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 17
    • View Profile
  • Location: 770
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan