Author Topic: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?  (Read 3561 times)

Online AsherO

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #15 on: April 01, 2021, 12:19:36 AM »
"I made this about the Dems. If you disagree then it is politics"

Why are you making this about politics? The OP posted a financial question that isn’t necessarily political in a financial thread. Start a new thread in the politics board to discuss whose fault it is.

#notpostingasamod

Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #16 on: April 01, 2021, 04:39:50 AM »
Have the prices of real estate, equities, and various other assets and commodities not risen over the past year? Look at the dollar index. Yes, I understand individual excuses were for each of these occurrences, but in the bigger picture, it does not look like prices are coming down anytime soon. Are we in denial that there's effective inflation? Markets are forward looking, and they're looking at devalued dollars.
Inflation and hyperinflation are very different things. Think about having weight which is necessary vs being overweight...

I linked to Biden announcing today that he would like to spend >$2,000,000,000,000 on some FDR style project.
That's over 10 years
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline drosenberg88429

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #17 on: April 01, 2021, 08:39:59 AM »
Inflation and hyperinflation are very different things. Think about having weight which is necessary vs being overweight...


Hyperinflation is generally defined at 50%+ a month. I think that almost all economists would agree that is astronomically unlikely to occur with USD.

That being said, the dollar has been effectively devalued more than 3% over the past year. The standard inflationary effect of more (unearned, if I may add, which intensifies the effect) dollars chasing less goods leading to rising prices across the spectrum has certainly been in effect.

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #18 on: April 01, 2021, 08:54:22 AM »

Is hyperinflation coming? And how would you protect against it?



I personally use potato futures as currency

In generally, potato futures are the fiscally prudent risk mitigation methodology accepted by leading economic experts as the responsible approach to bubble and inflationary concerns.

Chag kasher v'sameach.

Online Kobe Bryant

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #19 on: April 01, 2021, 08:59:55 AM »
Hyperinflation is generally defined at 50%+ a month. I think that almost all economists would agree that is astronomically unlikely to occur with USD.

That being said, the dollar has been effectively devalued more than 3% over the past year. The standard inflationary effect of more (unearned, if I may add, which intensifies the effect) dollars chasing less goods leading to rising prices across the spectrum has certainly been in effect.
Almost all hyperinflations have been caused by government budget deficits financed by currency creation.[citation needed] Hyperinflation is often associated with some stress to the government budget, such as wars or their aftermath, sociopolitical upheavals, a collapse in aggregate supply or one in export prices, or other crises that make it difficult for the government to collect tax revenue. A sharp decrease in real tax revenue coupled with a strong need to maintain government spending, together with an inability or unwillingness to borrow, can lead a country into hyperinflation.[3]

Although technically speaking ”Hyperinflation is generally defined at 50%+ a month.” I am referring to something similar to what happened in the US from 1973-1982 where inflation averaged 8.8% a year. Or even worse...


Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #20 on: April 01, 2021, 09:49:35 AM »
Hyperinflation is generally defined at 50%+ a month. I think that almost all economists would agree that is astronomically unlikely to occur with USD.

That being said, the dollar has been effectively devalued more than 3% over the past year. The standard inflationary effect of more (unearned, if I may add, which intensifies the effect) dollars chasing less goods leading to rising prices across the spectrum has certainly been in effect.
3% price growth is excellent. Most developed economies strive for ~2%
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #21 on: April 01, 2021, 08:13:47 PM »
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #22 on: April 01, 2021, 08:33:30 PM »

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #23 on: April 01, 2021, 08:34:00 PM »

Offline Lurker

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #24 on: April 01, 2021, 08:51:28 PM »
Hyperinflation is often associated with some stress to the government budget, such as wars or their aftermath, sociopolitical upheavals, a collapse in aggregate supply or one in export prices, or other crises that make it difficult for the government to collect tax revenue. A sharp decrease in real tax revenue coupled with a strong need to maintain government spending, together with an inability or unwillingness to borrow, can lead a country into hyperinflation.[3]

I think this is what it all hinges on. Everything else can work out with corrections, recessions, or periods of relatively "normal" high inflation (think 5-10%, not 50%). If the current conditions are combined with other factors, like a "sociopolitical upheaval," that could be the spark that sets it all on fire.
When you find yourself agreeing with me more often than not, it's time for a cheshbon hanefesh.

Online AsherO

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #25 on: April 01, 2021, 08:59:34 PM »
I think this is what it all hinges on. Everything else can work out with corrections, recessions, or periods of relatively "normal" high inflation (think 5-10%, not 50%). If the current conditions are combined with other factors, like a "sociopolitical upheaval," that could be the spark that sets it all on fire.

Yeah, all you need is a few more D/R swings that make Obama/Trump look normal in comparison and this country is going to h*ll in a handbasket faster than you can say boo.

Offline Lurker

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #26 on: April 01, 2021, 10:05:55 PM »
Yeah, all you need is a few more D/R swings that make Obama/Trump look normal in comparison and this country is going to h*ll in a handbasket faster than you can say boo.

Like President Kamala Harris in Jan 2022? Or AOC in the White House in 24? Yea. It's coming.
When you find yourself agreeing with me more often than not, it's time for a cheshbon hanefesh.

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #27 on: April 02, 2021, 02:26:32 AM »
Like President Kamala Harris in Jan 2022? Or AOC in the White House in 24? Yea. It's coming.

AOC in 2024 sounds too soon, but yes, that would be a good example. Not sure about KH in 2022, not sure how much more damage she’d inflict in 2 terms, also depends on 2022 election outcomes.

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #28 on: April 02, 2021, 03:14:16 AM »
Japan’s deflation is because of a low birth rate and shrinking population.

Government spending causes inflation, not deflation.
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Offline Joe4007

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #29 on: April 02, 2021, 10:36:42 AM »
To answer the thread title, it might be far on the horizon, but in the meantime the deflationary forces are just so great that no inflation is in sight.
Some might argue that inflation has been with us since QE started. It just manifested itself in asset prices where the money was directed. Now that we're directing it towards CPI/PCE, that might change.