Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?

[CountValentine]

That one is reserved for Hyperinflation. 

So do I hope for 75 and t-bill rates go up? 

[ExGingi]

So do I hope for 75 and t-bill rates go up? 

In that case long bonds go price up yield down, and we get an even greater yield curve inversion.

If I were a betting person I would bet slightly higher odds on the 50bps vs 25bps, as I think this isn't about the rates but about credibility.

[CountValentine]

...as I think this isn't about the rates but about credibility.

Inflation is going down and no recession so far. That's pretty "in-creditable". 

[Joe4007]

In that case long bonds go price up yield down, and we get an even greater yield curve inversion.

If I were a betting person I would bet slightly higher odds on the 50bps vs 25bps, as I think this isn't about the rates but about credibility.

Market is pricing 25bps at 99%. Will be a very red day of they do 50.

[CountValentine]

Will be a very red day of they do 50.

...and 75? 

[Joe4007]

...and 75? 

Ain't happening.

[CountValentine]

Market is pricing 25bps at 99%. Will be a very red day of they do 50.

What time? Is it today?

[Joe4007]

What time? Is it today?

Yes. 2:00 release. 2:30 press conference.

[Yakov15]

.25 hike

[CountValentine]

What did the feds say? Market liked what they said.

[Joe4007]

What did the feds say? Market liked what they said.

Same message mostly with less harshness and more "open to the data" attitude.

[yesitsme]

its official
time to lock this thread, crisis is over BH
https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1622234840039886849

he also found the cure for RCCS

[ExGingi]

https://twitter.com/macroalf/status/1623395476010676224

[WayBackMachine]

Walmart water doubled in price, pack of 40 bottles is now 5.36

[aygart]

A tale of two headlines

Inflation rose 0.5% in January, more than expected and up 6.4% from a year ago

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/14/consumer-price-index-january-2023-.html


The New York Times: CPI Report Updates: Inflation Down Slightly in January, a Worry for the Fed

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/02/14/business/january-cpi-inflation-report

[incendia]

A tale of two headlines

Inflation rose 0.5% in January, more than expected and up 6.4% from a year ago

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/14/consumer-price-index-january-2023-.html


The New York Times: CPI Report Updates: Inflation Down Slightly in January, a Worry for the Fed

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/02/14/business/january-cpi-inflation-report

One is talking about the CPI, which is up. And one is talking about inflation that's the rate change in CPI which is down but not as much as Fed would like

[Joe4007]

One is talking about the CPI, which is up. And one is talking about inflation that's the rate change in CPI which is down but not as much as Fed would like

To clarify further; both are referring to the CPI. One states the current monthly and annual reading, which is 0.5% and 6.4%, respectively, while the other compares this months annual reading (6.4%) to last months annual reading (6.5%).

[Ver hut gazugt]

To clarify further; both are referring to the CPI. One states the current monthly and annual reading, which is 0.5% and 6.4%, respectively, while the other compares this months annual reading (6.4%) to last months annual reading (6.5%).

just want to point out, the 0.5% is compared to last month which that month had inflation as well. So this is an acceleration in inflation.

[aygart]

https://wolfstreet.com/2023/02/21/how-the-cpi-weights-changed-and-moved-cpi-meet-the-surprises/

[Joe4007]

https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/1630931181356175360