Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?

[aygart]

If the stock market was buying into the consensus "stagflation" narrative, it's doubtful it would be doing what it's doing. This didn't happen in the 1970s fundamental bear market.

— David Rosenberg (@EconguyRosie) October 20, 2021

The stock market isn't a reliable preditor.

[ExGingi]

The stock market isn't a reliable preditor.

How about the bond market?

[123-Rosh]

Nobody cares what the stock market or the bond market predict. We all know inflation is here. We all knew it 6 months ago. Except for a few diehards who "follow the science" and don't live in realville.

[yesitsme]

Nobody cares what the stock market or the bond market predict. We all know inflation is here. We all knew it 6 months ago. Except for a few diehards who "follow the science" and don't live in realville.

I have a problem understanding ribis,and I feel stupid paying back the same amount I borrowed 4 years ago

[yuneeq]

If the stock market was buying into the consensus "stagflation" narrative, it's doubtful it would be doing what it's doing. This didn't happen in the 1970s fundamental bear market.

— David Rosenberg (@EconguyRosie) October 20, 2021

I disagree, but would go even further to say the stagflation is causing the bull market. We are currently in the middle of a recession masked by trillions of dollars printed and handed out. GDP growth is lower than the amount of new dollars added to the float, meaning the GDP is actually shrinking.

Simultaneously, the inflation caused by such policies persuades investors to throw their money into assets like the stock market as a hedge against inflation, causing a bull market.

[aygart]

How about the bond market?

Any market is nothing more than a consensus which makes his statement that it is against the consensus strange. It is nothing more than one consensus vs another.

[ExGingi]

Any market is nothing more than a consensus which makes his statement that it is against the consensus strange. It is nothing more than one consensus vs another.

Except that traditionally the bond market has been referred to as "smart money".

On a side note Barry Ritholtz was interviewed today on Bloomberg and asked if the labor shortages would lead to persistent inflation. He pointed out to an unprecedented increase in productivity that counters wage increases.

[AsherO]

He pointed out to an unprecedented increase in productivity that counters wage increases.

Show me the money proof! All of this working from home and progressive distractions indicate a huge decrease in productivity to me.

[ExGingi]

Show me the money proof! All of this working from home and progressive distractions indicate a huge decrease in productivity to me.

He cited some government agency. So the information is out there.

[AsherO]

He cited some government agency. So the information is out there.

This is probably a very difficult metric to quantify. A quick Google image search for labor/worker productivity 2021 returns many charts that vary widely. "an unprecedented increase in productivity" certainly isn't a given.

[ExGingi]

This is probably a very difficult metric to quantify. A quick Google image search for labor/worker productivity 2021 returns many charts that vary widely. "an unprecedented increase in productivity" certainly isn't a given.

https://www.bls.gov/lpc/

Output per hour



https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/PRS85006092

https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/PRS30006092

Compare those to the changes in Unit Labor Costs

[AsherO]

https://www.bls.gov/lpc/

Output per hour

Very interesting. Though I do wonder how much this data correlates to real-world data, similar to how CPI doesn't necessarily reflect cost changes in my real life.

[yesitsme]

I need to have more כוונה by והאר עינינו unfortunately this stock and bond business full of pulp I don't understand a bit of and can't even follow the discussion

[ExGingi]

I need to have more כוונה by והאר עינינו unfortunately this stock and bond business full of pulp I don't understand a bit of and can't even follow the discussion

הבל הבלים אמר קהלת הבל הבלים הכל הבל.

[yesitsme]

הבל הבלים אמר קהלת הבל הבלים הכל הבל.

thats here
https://forums.dansdeals.com/index.php?action=profile;area=statistics#:~:text=Total%20Time%20Spent%20Online%3A

[UKinNYS]

Are we really having the hyperinflation discussion again? It's so boring. And it's not happening. If you ascribe to certain worldview is always 'just around the corner.' Also reminder: hyperinflation is not "very high inflation" -is a currency collapse, a panic out of a currency.

— Adam Singer (@AdamSinger) October 23, 2021

Inflation (esp off base effects!) is real & felt. Not same as hyperinflation/economy collapse. Have you *seen* earnings? Rising costs in health/housing/edu hamstrung millennials. Those are real things to address & we can make progress on. But we're not post-war Hungary, spare me.

— Adam Singer (@AdamSinger) October 23, 2021

[yos9694]

What else is new, an academic who doesn't understand colloquial nuance. Inflation is happening in a very noticeable way. Ordinary inflation is like watching grass grow. Kind of nerdy to be jumping into the conversation to debate official terminology

[CountValentine]

What is your (anyone) definition for hyperinflation?

[LNS]

random question but just gonna throw it out there
lets say i have no financial background just your average upper middle class American but i smell danger
what do you think is a better move at this given point in our economy

hold the cash or invest in real estate ?

[yesitsme]

random question but just gonna throw it out there
lets say i have financial background just your average upper middle class American but i smell danger
what do you think is a better move at this given point in our economy

hold the cash or invest in real estate ?

Bitcoin you can then redeem it in India or anywhere else vs if the market and dollar goes flush you got nothing

but what's if bitcoin ends like bitbeam, whats iff