Author Topic: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?  (Read 83011 times)

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #60 on: April 06, 2021, 04:35:09 PM »
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #61 on: April 07, 2021, 08:25:26 PM »
Wonder how this changes with the SBA now allowing business to be 200% leveraged...

Offline AsherO

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #62 on: April 07, 2021, 08:28:29 PM »
Wonder how this changes with the SBA now allowing business to be 200% leveraged...

Only small businesses and only up to $500k

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #63 on: April 07, 2021, 08:40:51 PM »
Only small businesses and only up to $500k
Small businesses are about 99.7% of all US businesses.

Offline AsherO

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #64 on: April 07, 2021, 10:01:17 PM »
Small businesses are about 99.7% of all US businesses.

99.7% in absolute numbers (count of businesses), likely a small fraction of that in $$$, no?

I bet a big fraction of “small business” dollars are above 250k/year revenue (the 2-year $500k limit here).

Offline Kobe Bryant

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Offline AsherO

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #66 on: April 08, 2021, 08:10:34 AM »

Offline Ergel

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #67 on: April 08, 2021, 08:34:07 AM »
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/activity-6785273406972600320--MxV




When do you think the last time he paid for brakes were? Is that what he is basing his "expected" price on?
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Offline Lurker

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #68 on: April 08, 2021, 08:44:57 AM »
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/activity-6785273406972600320--MxV




This has much more to do with increased import costs and issues than Washington handing out money. #blameCovid
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Offline drosenberg88429

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #69 on: April 08, 2021, 09:25:14 AM »
This has much more to do with increased import costs and issues than Washington handing out money. #blameCovid

For what have prices not risen? I know they've risen on housing, equities, automobiles, food, household goods, and home improvement supplies. (Let's leave gasoline out of the equation.) I also know that the dollar index has sunk relative to other major currencies. Should we #blameCovid for everything?

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #70 on: April 08, 2021, 09:43:13 AM »
For what have prices not risen? I know they've risen on housing, equities, automobiles, food, household goods, and home improvement supplies. (Let's leave gasoline out of the equation.) I also know that the dollar index has sunk relative to other major currencies. Should we #blameCovid for everything?

How about the price of money (borrowing)?
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #71 on: April 08, 2021, 09:49:32 AM »
For what have prices not risen? I know they've risen on housing, equities, automobiles, food, household goods, and home improvement supplies. (Let's leave gasoline out of the equation.) I also know that the dollar index has sunk relative to other major currencies. Should we #blameCovid for everything?
Urban housing & consumer foods like flour and sugar didn’t rise.

The average price for a new car in the US was only up 2.5% from Sep ‘19 to Sep ‘20, despite many factories closing for months.

Most importantly, wages didn’t increase.

There is no inflation in the traditional sense.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline Lurker

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #72 on: April 08, 2021, 09:49:54 AM »
For what have prices not risen? I know they've risen on housing, equities, automobiles, food, household goods, and home improvement supplies. (Let's leave gasoline out of the equation.) I also know that the dollar index has sunk relative to other major currencies. Should we #blameCovid for everything?

Most of those things were seeing price increases well before government handouts, thanks to tariffs. Import issues due to Covid have further impacted pricing, as well as a weakened dollar.

Housing is simply a supply/demand issue. There have been no foreclosures in 13 months. The market is pretty bare. New housing completion just caught up to pre-Covid levels.

I'm not saying everything is Covid-related, but it plays a pretty significant part. The point is, there are a ton of factors at play here. To make as if trickle-down economics from "government handouts" has already reached the local mechanic's pricing... that's a very serious stretch.
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Offline ExGingi

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #73 on: April 08, 2021, 05:31:45 PM »
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline AsherO

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #74 on: April 08, 2021, 05:41:08 PM »

Because the US has the same work ethic as the Japanese.

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #75 on: April 08, 2021, 05:52:50 PM »
Because the US has the same work ethic as the Japanese.

 ::)

Here's what really matters:
https://www.brookings.edu/research/what-the-2020-census-will-reveal-about-america-stagnating-growth-an-aging-population-and-youthful-diversity/

US population is still growing, but at declining rates. Japan population is probably shrinking. These are major secular deflationary forces that can't just be countered with some easy money policy.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline drosenberg88429

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #76 on: April 08, 2021, 06:33:26 PM »
Because the US has the same work ethic as the Japanese.

The postmodern economic reality is such that increased work ethic is not necessary to sustain an economy comfortably. There are significantly deceased marginal returns after a point, and much of the work becomes busy work.

Offline drosenberg88429

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #77 on: April 08, 2021, 06:43:38 PM »
Urban housing & consumer foods like flour and sugar didn’t rise.

The average price for a new car in the US was only up 2.5% from Sep ‘19 to Sep ‘20, despite many factories closing for months.

Most importantly, wages didn’t increase.

There is no inflation in the traditional sense.

There was a shift away from urban areas.

Forget about new car MSRPs, and compare actual prices paid for the same cars 9/19 vs 9/20.

Wages did not increase, but the amount of capital being spent by the lowest 80% of income classes did increase.


Yes, many price fluctuations can be attributed to other factors besides covid. The point is that at a certain point, when extenuating circumstances and factors apply to almost any given commodities price elasticity, inflation becomes impossible to diagnose. One would have to look at the big picture and big data to get a quasi accurate portrayal, because any individual manifestation will be attributed to comorbidities.

The weakened dollar relative to other currencies that did not provide anywhere near this level of trickle up economical quantitative easing is pretty telling, though.

Offline zh cohen

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #78 on: April 08, 2021, 07:46:54 PM »
The average price for a new car in the US was only up 2.5% from Sep ‘19 to Sep ‘20, despite many factories closing for months.

And used cars?

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #79 on: April 08, 2021, 08:43:21 PM »
There was a shift away from urban areas to suburban areas.
Does that explain the rise in suburban housing costs?
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