Author Topic: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?  (Read 74998 times)

Offline avromie7

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #640 on: November 22, 2021, 09:53:28 AM »
What about car dealers?
Cars are like a commodity right now, there is real scarcity. There is no shortage of donuts or pastries.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

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Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline CountValentine

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #642 on: November 22, 2021, 10:50:14 AM »
Cars are like a commodity right now, there is real scarcity. There is no shortage of donuts or pastries.
The point is they are charging over list because they can.
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Offline ushdadude

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #643 on: November 22, 2021, 10:58:07 AM »
https://ggc-mauldin-images.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/pdf/TFTF_Nov_20_2021.pdf


If I recall correctly, Mark Cuban was a big fan of this. He called it trickle up economics

Offline Lurker

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #644 on: November 22, 2021, 12:33:00 PM »
The point is they are charging over list because they can.

Or they are charging over list because they need to make up for less volume due to scarcity. The average retailer isn't doing that.
Failing at maintaining Lurker status.

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #645 on: November 30, 2021, 11:21:49 PM »
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #646 on: December 01, 2021, 12:09:49 AM »
This seems ridiculous to me. These percentages are all from their highs while they remain quite a bit higher than they had been.
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #647 on: December 01, 2021, 12:25:53 AM »
This seems ridiculous to me. These percentages are all from their highs while they remain quite a bit higher than they had been.
Indeed.

I think the point he's making is that there's a reversal. If up until now it was a patient "wait and see" attitude, this might not be the time to change attitudes.

The bottom line is that regardless of all the noise, long term inflation expectations remain low (and it's really the expectations that the central bankers care about). And the immediate outcome is a fattening of the yield curve, which doesn't bode well. Maybe Powells words are just an attempt to raise yields at the long end (which will ultimately create another problem, with US debt service costs skyrocketing, which is by definition deflationary, as less dollars are available for investment).
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #648 on: December 01, 2021, 07:32:49 AM »
So hyperinflation is just hype?
You're so far up Trump's a** you can see Giuliani's feet.  HT Baruch

Offline Abey

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #649 on: December 01, 2021, 09:19:20 AM »
So hyperinflation is just hype?
You are oversimplifying it. Across most measurements it is not, of course if your trying to cherry pick some to support a narrative then you end up with saving$.16 on July 4th.
PS. Most economists believe it is here to stay, even Jpow who has a big hand in delivering this inflation no longer believes itís ď Transitory ď
« Last Edit: December 01, 2021, 09:25:05 AM by Abey »

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #650 on: December 01, 2021, 09:51:00 AM »
You are oversimplifying it. Across most measurements it is not, of course if your trying to cherry pick some to support a narrative then you end up with saving$.16 on July 4th.
PS. Most economists believe it is here to stay, even Jpow who has a big hand in delivering this inflation no longer believes itís ď Transitory ď

Could you please define the following terms:
Inflation
Hyperinflation
Transitory

Just so we can be certain the languages we are speaking are mutually intelligible.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline Abey

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #651 on: December 01, 2021, 10:03:02 AM »
Could you please define the following terms:
Inflation Healthy growth in the US economy
Hyperinflation Extreme inflation caused by QE and the fed buying corporate debt
Transitory A dream

Just so we can be certain the languages we are speaking are mutually intelligible.
to be clear some of the inflation will come down as supply increases to match demand, most of it is here to stay.

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #652 on: December 01, 2021, 11:25:59 AM »
Could you please define the following terms:
Inflation Healthy growth in the US economy
Hyperinflation Extreme inflation caused by QE and the fed buying corporate debt
Transitory A dream

Just so we can be certain the languages we are speaking are mutually intelligible.
to be clear some of the inflation will come down as supply increases to match demand, most of it is here to stay.

I guess that seals it. Your definitions are quite unique to yourself, not really broadly recognized by economists or any dictionary or encyclopedic definition.

FTR, more widely accepted definitions (not necessarily scientific) are:

Inflation -  Collective increases in the supply of money, in money incomes, or in prices. Inflation is generally thought of as an inordinate rise in the general level of prices. (Britannica.com, also see Investopedia, and economicshelp.org which succinctly defines it as "a sustained increase in the general price level in an economy")

Hyperinflation - Rapid, excessive, and out-of-control general price increases in an economy. While inflation is a measure of the pace of rising prices for goods and services, hyperinflation is rapidly rising inflation, typically measuring more than 50% per month. (Investopedia)

Transitory - The opposite of sustained (as in changes due to temporary situations that are likely to self-correct and mean-adjust, vs permanent changes - examples of which would be the job destruction of jobs related to horse and buggy industry, and many other industries that have and are being replaced by technological advances, never to come back - hence sustained deflationary pressures).
« Last Edit: December 01, 2021, 11:54:37 AM by ExGingi »
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline CountValentine

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #653 on: December 01, 2021, 12:14:32 PM »
Just so we can be certain the languages we are speaking are mutually intelligible.
This is the issue with 90%+ of the discussions. While we use the same term, we are talking about two different things.
You're so far up Trump's a** you can see Giuliani's feet.  HT Baruch

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #654 on: December 01, 2021, 02:51:54 PM »
This is the issue with 90%+ of the discussions. While we use the same term, we are talking about two different things.

The problem is that in many cases people will refuse to acknowledge even this simple fact. Am I right @Abey?
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline yungermanchik

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #655 on: December 01, 2021, 03:07:07 PM »
The problem is that in many cases people will refuse to acknowledge even this simple fact. Am I right @Abey?
Precisely, The problem is that the few "economists" among us continue to pretend that this discussion was ever about the "official terminology", despite the fact that it has been noted many times that it was about "common usage" (לשון בני אדם) 
Small people talk about other people.
Average people talk about things
BIG PEOPLE TALK ABOUT IDEAS.

Offline CountValentine

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #656 on: December 01, 2021, 03:09:09 PM »
You are oversimplifying it.
Guilty as charged.
You're so far up Trump's a** you can see Giuliani's feet.  HT Baruch

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #657 on: December 01, 2021, 05:34:36 PM »
Precisely, The problem is that the few "economists" among us continue to pretend that this discussion was ever about the "official terminology", despite the fact that it has been noted many times that it was about "common usage" (לשון בני אדם)

So help me understand לשון בני אדם:
Quote
Inflation Healthy growth in the US economy
I was never aware or heard of inflation in any positive connotation of "common usage", it seems to always be referring to loss of purchasing power. Please do correct me if I'm wrong.

Quote
Hyperinflation Extreme inflation caused by QE and the fed buying corporate debt
So I can understand the hyperbole argument saying that "common usage" will say "Hyperinflation" when all they mean is "above average" or "a little excessive, compared to recent history", but where does the "caused by..." come in?

Quote
Transitory A dream
Here again, it seems like the "common usage" is 100% emotional, as I haven't heard anyone thinking or arguing that prices will persistently increase at great percentages. It might be a current rapid increase that will then plateau higher than before, but is anyone arguing that we are in the midst of a cycle of a persistent compound price increase spiral?
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline yungermanchik

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #658 on: December 01, 2021, 07:29:33 PM »
I did not mean to completely agree to all of his definitions (see here, I was just bothered by the repeated bringing-in of encyclopedia/official-terminology into a discussion in which most are talking about לשון בני אדם.

My understanding:
Could you please define the following terms:
Inflation A small, but noticeable increase in prices due to the slight decrease in value/buying power of the currency
Hyperinflation A large, very noticeable increase in prices which shows to the a major decrease in value/buying power of the currency
Transitory A temporary Hyperinflation-like increase which will level-out to lower than that.

Just so we can be certain the languages we are speaking are mutually intelligible.
CMIIW, but I think the main difference is in what level we would call it "hyper".
Small people talk about other people.
Average people talk about things
BIG PEOPLE TALK ABOUT IDEAS.

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #659 on: December 01, 2021, 08:44:05 PM »
CMIIW, but I think the main difference is in what level we would call it "hyper".

Or in other words, is Hyper in the inflation context legitimate hyperbole.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan