Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?

[aygart]

Still no explanation why it’s so much steeper in the Kosher/frum world. The LinkedIn thread above (posted by yuneeq) has a ton of competent commenters and no real explanations.

Mashgichim need to be paid more in many cases. With the way the frum community was able to capitalize on COVID there is much less incentive.

[Lurker]

Mashgichim need to be paid more in many cases. With the way the frum community was able to capitalize on COVID there is much less incentive.

Minimum wage for mashgichim has gone up 15-20% here.

[AsherO]

More truck drivers, more trucks, more dock workers to load trucks, more warehouse workers to unload and repack trucks for local distribution, more workers at retailers to unload trucks to get them back on the road quicker.... Good times.

And cheaper fuel.

What about large non-food items that get transported over long distances, have they been seeing similar increases?

[Lurker]

And cheaper fuel.

What about large non-food items that get transported over long distances, have they been seeing similar increases?

Ask a Floridian about 9x13 pans....

[aygart]

Minimum wage for mashgichim has gone up 15-20% here.

That is a big expense. It also went up for the ingredients.

[aygart]

Ask a Floridian about 9x13 pans....

What about plastic cups?

[Lurker]

That is a big expense. It also went up for the ingredients.

Produce is up, packaging is up, labor is up. These are not Kosher specific, though. This is across the board.

[Lurker]

What about plastic cups?

More expensive, but at least you can find them. People here send mass texts when Sam's Club has pans in stock online. It reminds me of people looking for gas right before a hurricane.

[AsherO]

Produce is up, packaging is up, labor is up. These are not Kosher specific, though. This is across the board.

But the frum inflation has been significant outpacing national inflation, it can’t just be Hashgacha and transportation, though those might definitely be contributing factors.

[Lurker]

But the frum inflation has been significant outpacing national inflation, it can’t just be Hashgacha and transportation, though those might definitely be contributing factors.

Purely hypothesizing.... I know that one of the big meat producers had a major packaging issue. It's possible that they aren't big enough to negotiate their way through shortages, and therefore end up paying a premium and passing it on to the end user. This can be applied to any Kosher sector.

Further hypothesizing: there are serious supply issues for parts. When a major player has a machine or 2 down, a) it's a smaller percentage of their overall operation that is affected, and b) they can buy their way to the front of the line.

Kosher producers are relatively small fish in the food world, and are more likely to feel greater adverse effects from issues which others can absorb more easily.

[AsherO]

Purely hypothesizing.... I know that one of the big meat producers had a major packaging issue. It's possible that they aren't big enough to negotiate their way through shortages, and therefore end up paying a premium and passing it on to the end user. This can be applied to any Kosher sector.

Further hypothesizing: there are serious supply issues for parts. When a major player has a machine or 2 down, a) it's a smaller percentage of their overall operation that is affected, and b) they can buy their way to the front of the line.

Kosher producers are relatively small fish in the food world, and are more likely to feel greater adverse effects from issues which others can absorb more easily.

These are things that sound more like the COVID thread about Kosher food shortages, than about an ongoing inflation situation.

[Lurker]

These are things that sound more like the COVID thread about Kosher food shortages, than about an ongoing inflation situation.

They aren't mutually exclusive. Shortages cause prices to go up. Government money from loans and grants cause money to be worth less, also causing prices to rise.. Big companies who cleaned up government money can spend more to address Covid related shortages, making the effects of both the shortages and inflation worse for smaller companies.

[ExGingi]

Minimum wage for mashgichim has gone up 15-20% here.

I spent some time on Shabbos with a friend who is a shliach in Shanghai. We spoke about the current conditions there vis-a-vis covid-19, and I mentioned the challenges to the kosher food industry. He told me that certifying agencies have turned to shluchim to fill the void, due to the inability to send mashgichim. He told me that the daily rate they charge the agencies is over $1,000 to compensate for the risks.  With no visitors allowed in China, this replaces lots of lost income.

[AsherO]

I spent some time on Shabbos with a friend who is a shliach in Shanghai. We spoke about the current conditions there vis-a-vis covid-19, and I mentioned the challenges to the kosher food industry. He told me that certifying agencies have turned to shluchim to fill the void, due to the inability to send mashgichim. He told me that the daily rate they charge the agencies is over $1,000 to compensate for the risks.  With no visitors allowed in China, this replaces lots of lost income.

What are the risks to a China based Shliach? Getting COVID and having to quarantine for three months?

[EliJelly]

I spent some time on Shabbos with a friend who is a shliach in Shanghai. We spoke about the current conditions there vis-a-vis covid-19, and I mentioned the challenges to the kosher food industry. He told me that certifying agencies have turned to shluchim to fill the void, due to the inability to send mashgichim. He told me that the daily rate they charge the agencies is over $1,000 to compensate for the risks.  With no visitors allowed in China, this replaces lots of lost income.

Are the shluchim there going through proper training to certify all these complicated plants and machinery? Did he mention anything about that? The last thing we want to become deprived of "due to Covid" is high kashrus standards.

[ExGingi]

Are the shluchim there going through proper training to certify all these complicated plants and machinery? Did he mention anything about that? The last thing we want to become deprived of "due to Covid" is high kashrus standards.

Which is why the certifying agency is so important. Only trust those that will make sure they send mashgichim that know what they really need to do.

[ExGingi]

What are the risks to a China based Shliach? Getting COVID and having to quarantine for three months?

The agencies don't provide the equivalent of workers comp. Quarantine risk is huge. Mashgich can go on what is scheduled to be a day or two visit, and be quarantined in a hotel that has been locked down due to exposure for two weeks.

[AsherO]

The agencies don't provide the equivalent of workers comp. Quarantine risk is huge. Mashgich can go on what is scheduled to be a day or two visit, and be quarantined in a hotel that has been locked down due to exposure for two weeks.

That’s what I’m asking. Lurker said “risks”, and I thought that’s what he meant, just confirming.

[yuneeq]

It’s funny to think that a community that has been living as if COVID never existed is supposedly suffering the most from COVID related shortages. I’m not buying it.

[AsherO]

It’s funny to think that a community that has been living as if COVID never existed is supposedly suffering the most from COVID related shortages. I’m not buying it.

Even if people live in a zero-COVID bubble (/s), there’s a pandemic going on outside that bubble all the same.