https://twitter.com/stevematthews12/status/1492174303193927684?s=21
Wages aren't going up at the same rate as CPI/CoL indexes, so people will either dig into savings/borrowing to sustain the same lifestyle, or they'll buy less.
Spending patterns also change as you get older. Many need/spend less.
Is deflation on the horizon?
I feel like I’ve been hearing that since this thread was started a year ago.
And what does the following tell you?
CU's give a lot better rates?
If we do end up with deflation, I am pretty sure @ExGingi will say "I told you so"
Modern deflation is when the inflation rate drops from 15% to 12%
How about "is a recession on the horizon"?https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-11/fed-hikes-seen-starting-with-yield-curve-flattest-in-generation
and this:https://twitter.com/MacroAlf/status/1494692077736763398What happens to the housing component of CPI?
This seems inaccurate or a poor perspective. Seems like he is calculating median house value at newly obtained mortgage rate. But the median mortgage today is not the average of what people are paying - most mortgages in the US are not purchases from 2022. People bought 1-5-10-20 years ago and are locked in to 30 year mortgages at all time lows. They refi'd in 2021 and are paying less than they were previously. Doesn't matter if their house went up 300% overnight. If anything, lower mortgage payments and higher earnings for most homeowners is pretty good.What it does matter to is new purchasers and new purchasers only, but this is not some huge impending crisis as the tweet makes it seem.
