Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?

[Lurker]

https://twitter.com/SquawkCNBC/status/1404784519807447040

I'm curious as to how they came to the conclusion that there is 34% more money in the US system. It seems like that number is close to the increase in the US national debt (from $19.1T to $28.4T) over that same 14 month period.

[yuneeq]

I'm curious as to how they came to the conclusion that there is 34% more money in the US system. It seems like that number is close to the increase in the US national debt (from $19.1T to $28.4T) over that same 14 month period.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/current/default.htm

[Lurker]

https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/current/default.htm

I'm unfortunately not educated enough to make much sense of this. Looks like the biggest changes across most categories were in Mar-May 2020.

[avromie7]

I'm unfortunately not educated enough to make much sense of this. Looks like the biggest changes across most categories were in Mar-May 2020.

I didn't read thru them, but see footnotes 1&2

Before May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those amounts held by depository institutions, the U.S. government, and foreign banks and official institutions) less cash items in the process of collection and Federal Reserve float; and (3) other checkable deposits (OCDs), consisting of negotiable order of withdrawal, or NOW, and automatic transfer service, or ATS, accounts at depository institutions, share draft accounts at credit unions, and demand deposits at thrift institutions. Beginning May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those amounts held by depository institutions, the U.S. government, and foreign banks and official institutions) less cash items in the process of collection and Federal Reserve float; and (3) other liquid deposits, consisting of OCDs and savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts). Seasonally adjusted M1 is constructed by summing currency, demand deposits, and OCDs (before May 2020) or other liquid deposits (beginning May 2020), each seasonally adjusted separately. For more information on the H.6 release changes and the regulatory amendment that led to the creation of the other liquid deposits component and its inclusion in the M1 monetary aggregate, see the H.6 announcement and Technical Q&As posted on December 17, 2020.


Before May 2020, M2 consists of M1 plus (1) savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts); (2) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in amounts of less than $100,000) less individual retirement account (IRA) and Keogh balances at depository institutions; and (3) balances in retail money market funds (MMFs) less IRA and Keogh balances at MMFs. Beginning May 2020, M2 consists of M1 plus (1) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in amounts of less than $100,000) less IRA and Keogh balances at depository institutions; and (2) balances in retail MMFs less IRA and Keogh balances at MMFs. Seasonally adjusted M2 is constructed by summing savings deposits (before May 2020), small-denomination time deposits, and retail MMFs, each seasonally adjusted separately, and adding this result to seasonally adjusted M1

[yuneeq]

I'm unfortunately not educated enough to make much sense of this. Looks like the biggest changes across most categories were in Mar-May 2020.

Neither am I that's why I posted the link
Though I've seen that 34% number posted elsewhere so I'm guessing it's just a matter of knowing which numbers to look at.

[ExGingi]

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/06/13/shocking-inflation-will-end-hurt-reopening-stocks-david-rosenberg.html

[ExGingi]

https://twitter.com/northmantrader/status/1405504282447814669?s=21

[yos9694]

Deflation is the whole life of economics

[ExGingi]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-18/investors-leap-at-chance-to-double-their-money-in-1-387-years

I guess there's a lot of money on the deflation side.

[ExGingi]

https://twitter.com/scottminerd/status/1405579145032122372?s=21

[Kobe Bryant]

https://www.amimagazine.org/2021/06/16/get-ready-to-pay-more/

[UKinNYS]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/eviction-foreclosure-moratorium-ending-8-million-households/
Can someone tell these ^ ppl about the millions of open jobs?
When the **** hits the fan (eviction moratorium ends) will they go back to work?
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/21/american-airlines-cancels-flights-due-to-staffing-maintenance-issues.html

[Lurker]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/eviction-foreclosure-moratorium-ending-8-million-households/
Can someone tell these ^ ppl about the millions of open jobs?
When the **** hits the fan (eviction moratorium ends) will they go back to work?

You're assuming these people aren't working. Most people can barely afford their regular housing costs during normal circumstances. If any of them were furloughed or had reduced hours over the last 15 months and owe rent because of that, they're going to have a hard time catching up on top of staying current. For people with mortgages, the principle/interest part of their payments can be tacked on to the end of their loan, but they're going to need to come up with money to cover missed escrow payments for taxes and insurance. If they're only given a year to catch up, that can increase their monthly payments between 30-100%.

IOW, job availability can ease things for some people, but it doesn't come anywhere close to solving this problem.

[avromie7]

You're assuming these people aren't working. Most people can barely afford their regular housing costs during normal circumstances. If any of them were furloughed or had reduced hours over the last 15 months and owe rent because of that, they're going to have a hard time catching up on top of staying current. For people with mortgages, the principle/interest part of their payments can be tacked on to the end of their loan, but they're going to need to come up with money to cover missed escrow payments for taxes and insurance. If they're only given a year to catch up, that can increase their monthly payments between 30-100%.

IOW, job availability can ease things for some people, but it doesn't come anywhere close to solving this problem.

Job availability together with UI and all the other programs that were increased should definitely solve the problem for most.

[UKinNYS]

Talking as a property manager most tenants (and landlords) have access to all sort of govt. and charity grants that can make up the bulk of the back rent and landlords have to promise not to evict if they accept these grants. The eviction will by and large hit those who refuse to pay going forward (or make a payment plan) these are often ppl who refuse to work...

You're assuming these people aren't working. Most people can barely afford their regular housing costs during normal circumstances. If any of them were furloughed or had reduced hours over the last 15 months and owe rent because of that, they're going to have a hard time catching up on top of staying current. For people with mortgages, the principle/interest part of their payments can be tacked on to the end of their loan, but they're going to need to come up with money to cover missed escrow payments for taxes and insurance. If they're only given a year to catch up, that can increase their monthly payments between 30-100%.
IOW, job availability can ease things for some people, but it doesn't come anywhere close to solving this problem.

[aygart]

or had reduced hours over the last 15 months

Best of both worlds scenario....

[Lurker]

Job availability together with UI and all the other programs that were increased should definitely solve the problem for most.

I'm not understanding. UI wasn't enough to keep them from getting into the position they're in right now. How will it help them solve the problem going forward?

[Lurker]

Best of both worlds scenario....

Could have been, under the right circumstances and with enough brains. Yet here we are...

[ExGingi]

https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/what-the-10-year-treasury-rates-dip-below-1-5-may-be-saying-about-inflation-11625002596

[Kobe Bryant]

Prices for U.S. consumers jumped in June by the most in 13 years, extending a run of higher inflation and fueling concerns that the rapidly rebounding economy is making goods and services increasingly expensive.

Tuesday’s report from the Labor Department showed that consumer prices in June rose 0.9% from May and 5.4% over the past year — the sharpest 12-month inflation spike since August 2008. Excluding volatile oil and gas prices, so-called core inflation rose 4.5% in the past year, the largest increase since November 1991.