Author Topic: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?  (Read 99128 times)

Online aygart

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #480 on: October 20, 2021, 08:29:47 PM »


The stock market isn't a reliable preditor.
Feelings don't care about your facts

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #481 on: October 20, 2021, 08:53:29 PM »
The stock market isn't a reliable preditor.

How about the bond market?
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Offline 123-Rosh

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #482 on: October 20, 2021, 09:35:07 PM »
Nobody cares what the stock market or the bond market predict. We all know inflation is here. We all knew it 6 months ago. Except for a few diehards who "follow the science" and don't live in realville.

Offline yesitsme

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #483 on: October 20, 2021, 09:42:38 PM »
Nobody cares what the stock market or the bond market predict. We all know inflation is here. We all knew it 6 months ago. Except for a few diehards who "follow the science" and don't live in realville.
I have a problem understanding ribis,and I feel stupid paying back the same amount I borrowed 4 years ago
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Offline yuneeq

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #484 on: October 20, 2021, 10:15:50 PM »

I disagree, but would go even further to say the stagflation is causing the bull market. We are currently in the middle of a recession masked by trillions of dollars printed and handed out. GDP growth is lower than the amount of new dollars added to the float, meaning the GDP is actually shrinking.

Simultaneously, the inflation caused by such policies persuades investors to throw their money into assets like the stock market as a hedge against inflation, causing a bull market.
"If you fall, I will be there." -Floor

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #485 on: October 21, 2021, 12:09:54 AM »
How about the bond market?
Any market is nothing more than a consensus which makes his statement that it is against the consensus strange. It is nothing more than one consensus vs another.
Feelings don't care about your facts

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #486 on: October 21, 2021, 12:19:27 PM »
Any market is nothing more than a consensus which makes his statement that it is against the consensus strange. It is nothing more than one consensus vs another.

Except that traditionally the bond market has been referred to as "smart money".

On a side note Barry Ritholtz was interviewed today on Bloomberg and asked if the labor shortages would lead to persistent inflation. He pointed out to an unprecedented increase in productivity that counters wage increases.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Offline AsherO

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #487 on: October 21, 2021, 12:56:55 PM »
He pointed out to an unprecedented increase in productivity that counters wage increases.

Show me the money proof! All of this working from home and progressive distractions indicate a huge decrease in productivity to me.

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #488 on: October 21, 2021, 02:07:23 PM »
Show me the money proof! All of this working from home and progressive distractions indicate a huge decrease in productivity to me.

He cited some government agency. So the information is out there.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Offline AsherO

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #489 on: October 21, 2021, 02:12:13 PM »
He cited some government agency. So the information is out there.

This is probably a very difficult metric to quantify. A quick Google image search for labor/worker productivity 2021 returns many charts that vary widely. "an unprecedented increase in productivity" certainly isn't a given.

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #490 on: October 21, 2021, 02:17:05 PM »
This is probably a very difficult metric to quantify. A quick Google image search for labor/worker productivity 2021 returns many charts that vary widely. "an unprecedented increase in productivity" certainly isn't a given.

https://www.bls.gov/lpc/

Output per hour



https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/PRS85006092

https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/PRS30006092

Compare those to the changes in Unit Labor Costs

« Last Edit: October 21, 2021, 02:20:59 PM by ExGingi »
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Offline AsherO

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #491 on: October 21, 2021, 02:22:30 PM »
https://www.bls.gov/lpc/

Output per hour


Very interesting. Though I do wonder how much this data correlates to real-world data, similar to how CPI doesn't necessarily reflect cost changes in my real life.

Offline yesitsme

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #492 on: October 21, 2021, 07:20:20 PM »
I need to have more כוונה by והאר עינינו unfortunately this stock and bond business full of pulp I don't understand a bit of and can't even follow the discussion
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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #493 on: October 21, 2021, 07:24:58 PM »
I need to have more כוונה by והאר עינינו unfortunately this stock and bond business full of pulp I don't understand a bit of and can't even follow the discussion

הבל הבלים אמר קהלת הבל הבלים הכל הבל.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline yesitsme

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #495 on: October 23, 2021, 09:33:42 PM »

Offline yos9694

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #496 on: October 23, 2021, 10:04:39 PM »
What else is new, an academic who doesn't understand colloquial nuance. Inflation is happening in a very noticeable way. Ordinary inflation is like watching grass grow. Kind of nerdy to be jumping into the conversation to debate official terminology

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #497 on: October 23, 2021, 10:06:30 PM »
What is your (anyone) definition for hyperinflation?
You're so far up Trump's a** you can see Giuliani's feet.  HT Baruch

Offline LNS

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #498 on: October 23, 2021, 10:27:06 PM »
random question but just gonna throw it out there
lets say i have no financial background just your average upper middle class American but i smell danger
what do you think is a better move at this given point in our economy

hold the cash or invest in real estate ?

« Last Edit: October 23, 2021, 10:43:58 PM by LNS »

Offline yesitsme

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #499 on: October 23, 2021, 10:29:56 PM »
random question but just gonna throw it out there
lets say i have financial background just your average upper middle class American but i smell danger
what do you think is a better move at this given point in our economy

hold the cash or invest in real estate ?


Bitcoin you can then redeem it in India or anywhere else vs if the market and dollar goes flush you got nothing

but what's if bitcoin ends like bitbeam, whats iff
["-"]