Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?

[ExGingi]

So is hyperinflation still on the horizon? Are we currently in hyperinflation or is it just a bunch of hype?

this

[Euclid]

This isn't necessarily the correct place for this discussion, but the following article was pretty thorough and very informative. What do y'all think?

https://medium.com/@ryan79z28/im-a-twenty-year-truck-driver-i-will-tell-you-why-america-s-shipping-crisis-will-not-end-bbe0ebac6a91

(If you hit the Medium paywall try opening in incognito)

Sounds like they should use a government agency, e.g. the National Guard, to alleviate the short term pressures.

[ExGingi]

https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2021/10/the-international-experience-of-central-bank-asset-purchases-and-inflation/

According to this approach, the international experience does not suggest that quantitative easing is necessarily inflationary. Instead, it will be challenging to observe inflationary pressure associated with central bank reserves growth in a world of low natural interest rates related to demographic and other structural drivers. Whether these lessons shed light on the post-COVID environment will depend, among other factors, on how the gap between aggregate supply and demand will be closed, and to what extent fiscal policy over the medium term may boost aggregate demand and natural real interest rates, possibly offsetting the high propensity to save by the private sector.

[ExGingi]

Unless they are stagflation

https://twitter.com/Quicktake/status/1455576825791492096?s=20

[ushdadude]

So is hyperinflation still on the horizon? Are we currently in hyperinflation or is it just a bunch of hype?

dunno but many every prices are up

[CountValentine]

dunno but many every prices are up

I agree and have witnessed that many times. It is called inflation. 

[ushdadude]

I agree and have witnessed that many times. It is called inflation. 

It's funny how there are always excuses for raising prices but when those reasons are gone prices don't go back down.

[CountValentine]

It's funny how there are always excuses for raising prices but when those reasons are gone prices don't go back down.

Let gas hit $5/gallon and then go down to $3. Everyone will be saying gas is cheap.

[ExGingi]

It's funny how there are always excuses for raising prices but when those reasons are gone prices don't go back down.

Have you not seen any price decreases in the last decade? Especially when it comes to technology? Naturaly gas was declining for many years, and only recently has been increasing. Oil isn't at all-time highs, and has fallen from those, and while it's currently rising, I will remind you of the saying that was heard when the price of oil skyrocketed in the past: "the solution for high oil prices are high oil prices".

Also very recently, lumber was skyrocketing and has dropped significantly from highs.

[ushdadude]

Have you not seen any price decreases in the last decade? Especially when it comes to technology? Naturaly gas was declining for many years, and only recently has been increasing. Oil isn't at all-time highs, and has fallen from those, and while it's currently rising, I will remind you of the saying that was heard when the price of oil skyrocketed in the past: "the solution for high oil prices are high oil prices".

Also very recently, lumber was skyrocketing and has dropped significantly from highs.

true
I was mostly referring to everyday consumer items such as paper goods, groceries, meat etc

[yungermanchik]

Have you not seen any price decreases in the last decade? Especially when it comes to technology? Naturaly gas was declining for many years, and only recently has been increasing. Oil isn't at all-time highs, and has fallen from those, and while it's currently rising, I will remind you of the saying that was heard when the price of oil skyrocketed in the past: "the solution for high oil prices are high oil prices".

Also very recently, lumber was skyrocketing and has dropped significantly from highs.

CMIIW but I think he was talking more in the realm of consumer end products, like furniture, groceries and pizza. Over the years there have been various excuses for the dramatic increases ranging from forest fires to mad cow disease, yet when those problems went away, the increases stayed.

[ushdadude]

CMIIW but I think he was talking more in the realm of consumer end products, like furniture, groceries and pizza. Over the years there have been various excuses for the dramatic increases ranging from forest fires to mad cow disease, yet when those problems went away, the increases stayed.

another thing that comes to mind is consumer silver products. they always blame spot silver for increased prices but never lower their prices when silver comes back down.

[ExGingi]

true
I was mostly referring to everyday consumer items such as paper goods, groceries, meat etc

I am sure you've heard about "core inflation" which generally excludes food and energy, which are very volatile.

I can't dig up the quotes now, but I remember about a decade ago everything felt like it did now, and people were saying that the Fed is out of touch, because real people do need to eat and consume energy.

[EliJelly]

Commodities may go up and down but Mehadrin kosher, Monsey trails and tuition are a one way path. In our very own economic bubble price decreases is non existent anyway, and it correlates to different factors than in the general society.

[ushdadude]

I am sure you've heard about "core inflation" which generally excludes food and energy, which are very volatile.

I can't dig up the quotes now, but I remember about a decade ago everything felt like it did now, and people were saying that the Fed is out of touch, because real people do need to eat and consume energy.

it feels like they play games with the equations to get the numbers they want.

[ushdadude]

Commodities may go up and down but Mehadrin kosher, Monsey trails and tuition are a one way path. In our very own economic bubble price decreases is non existent anyway, and it correlates to different factors than in the general society.

same as housing market

[CountValentine]

Also very recently, lumber was skyrocketing and has dropped significantly from highs.

...but is still outrageous compared to pre-pandemic.

[ExGingi]

...but is still outrageous compared to pre-pandemic.

Indeed. There are serious supply chain disruptions. These will not last forever.

[CountValentine]

Indeed. There are serious supply chain disruptions. These will not last forever.

So once supply chain issues get back to normal we will see the same for lumber? 

[ExGingi]

So once supply chain issues get back to normal we will see the same for lumber? 

Sooner or later IMHO.