Author Topic: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?  (Read 152657 times)

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #1100 on: March 25, 2022, 04:37:55 PM »
Link?
I will try to find it but it won't be today
Feelings don't care about your facts

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #1101 on: March 25, 2022, 04:53:03 PM »
I will try to find it but it won't be today
No problem.
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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #1103 on: March 26, 2022, 09:51:49 PM »
https://stevenvanmetre.com/2022/03/25/crude-will-soon-crash/
Need to check back on this.

While many people believe crude oil can only go higher, a rapidly rising U.S. Dollar suggests the opposite is about to come true. Due to increased imports during periods of a strong dollar, crude oil prices are likely to come crashing down along with inflation and Treasury yields.
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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #1104 on: March 26, 2022, 10:00:05 PM »
Need to check back on this.

While many people believe crude oil can only go higher, a rapidly rising U.S. Dollar suggests the opposite is about to come true. Due to increased imports during periods of a strong dollar, crude oil prices are likely to come crashing down along with inflation and Treasury yields.

https://twitter.com/davehcontrarian/status/1507321005198524424?s=21

Let's revisit these in 6 months.
https://twitter.com/davehcontrarian/status/1507520417904406529


We have a few calls to check back on in 6-9 months from now.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #1107 on: March 26, 2022, 10:30:35 PM »
Feelings don't care about your facts

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #1108 on: March 26, 2022, 11:30:30 PM »
https://twitter.com/davehcontrarian/status/1507904512371081218?s=21

Who is this guy?
Probably someone making outlandish claims hoping something crazy happens and he comes out looking like a genius.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #1109 on: March 26, 2022, 11:39:30 PM »

I remember that.

I am asking what goalposts did you have in mind? I don't recall you mentioning any.
I suggested them about exactly this but you said we shouldn't because of Putin.
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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #1110 on: March 27, 2022, 11:51:45 AM »
Some interesting thoughts/observations in this thread and the thread it links to:

https://twitter.com/biancoresearch/status/1508107630081884160
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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #1111 on: March 27, 2022, 11:53:20 AM »
Would it be fair to see say that whatever happens some the experts will be right since all possibilities are covered?  :)
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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #1113 on: March 27, 2022, 11:54:25 AM »
Would it be fair to see say that whatever happens some the experts will be right since all possibilities are covered?  :)

I would guess that Black Swan events are not covered.
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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #1114 on: March 27, 2022, 11:57:38 AM »
I would guess that Black Swan events are not covered.
Looks like they are covered.

1 - An event that is unpredictable.
2 - A black swan event results in severe and widespread consequences.
3 - After the occurrence of a black swan event, people will rationalize the event as having been predictable (known as the hindsight bias).
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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #1115 on: March 27, 2022, 12:23:40 PM »
Oil goes up 20%. Gas goes up over 20%.
Oil drops 20% and gas prices barely come down.
What do you call it? Should we just call it greed?

Let's go through an exercise (with some simplification to make it shorter):

Let's assume the gas station owner sells on average 10,000 gallons of gasoline per week.

Wholesale gasoline goes up 20%. Average American fills up, begrudges how much they paid for the fill-up and move on.

They come back a week later and see that prices at the pump are still high, maybe they fill only half a tank, or maybe they fill up, but they decide to cut down on driving as the fill-ups are eating into their disposable income.

This isn't just one driver, but the result is that the next time the station owner fills up his 10,000 gallon tanks he discovers that he only sold 8,000 gallons in the past week. So he still has 20% of his inventory for which he paid the old price, and 80% for the new price. If this new price is higher, then he is forced to sell for even higher, resulting in additional marginal drop-off in sales. If it is lower, can he lower the price to the current price?

Let's assume that the station owner managed to sell at a slightly lower price than the peak price? Will the lost demand come back right away? Or will some say to themselves "we've learned how to drive less, maybe we can keep that going even if gas prices are slightly down"?

And then when wholesale prices go back up, what happens?

You think any of this isn't real:

https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth/status/1508085764306968584

There's no way to slice it differently. High prices (be it the price of commodities, or the price of money) curb demand (sooner or later) and bring prices down to an equilibrium (with a tendency to overshoot).
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #1116 on: March 27, 2022, 12:33:42 PM »
Let's go through an exercise (with some simplification to make it shorter):
Good idea.

Gas $3 Oil 60
Gas $4 Oil 80
We hear the reason gas went to $4 is because oil went up to 80. Ok sounds reasonable.

Gas $4 Oil 80
Gas $3.60 Oil 60
The average person expects gas to be $3, not $3.60.
It doesn't get any simpler than that.  :)
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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #1117 on: March 27, 2022, 12:37:20 PM »
Good idea.

Gas $3 Oil 60
Gas $4 Oil 80
We hear the reason gas went to $4 is because oil went up to 80. Ok sounds reasonable.

Gas $4 Oil 80
Gas $3.60 Oil 60
The average person expects gas to be $3, not $3.60.
It doesn't get any simpler than that.  :)

Exactly. Ignore the facts, just make populistic arguments.

(I forgot to mention in my exercise above, that when gas prices are up, the station owner sees less profits due to decreased ancillary sales).

In places like Venezuela, Iran and DPRK the prices are controlled and as low as needed to keep the population happy.
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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #1118 on: March 27, 2022, 12:45:22 PM »
Exactly. Ignore the facts, just make populistic arguments.
The fact is they are fast to raise the price and slow to lower the price.
Everyone has their own view why that is but doesn't change that fact.
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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #1119 on: March 27, 2022, 12:48:17 PM »
The fact is they are fast to raise the price and slow to lower the price.
Everyone has their own view why that is but doesn't change that fact.

So would you rather they be forced out of business, and sell their real estate to developers to put up whatever makes them profit, while lowering the number of gas stations around (we've seen quite a bit of that in NYC in the last decade).
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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