Author Topic: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?  (Read 159205 times)

Offline aygart

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #1440 on: September 15, 2022, 10:29:54 AM »
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline yuneeq

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #1441 on: September 15, 2022, 10:41:06 AM »
Covid changed the labor market. New workers are needed. Where will they come from?

There are few ways to increase the labor force and labor participation rate. To increase workforce - can be done very easily by granting work visas for understaffed industries. For LFPR we can incentivize return to the labor force, or disincentivize remaining unemployed.
« Last Edit: September 15, 2022, 10:55:29 AM by yuneeq »
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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #1442 on: September 15, 2022, 10:46:25 AM »
So you can never have real wage increases without fueling inflation?
Inflation 1%, wages go up 2%, that fuels inflation?

Not unless you find other markets to sell your products. Wage increases in sectors with high export rates won't fuel inflation nearly as much as sectors supporting domestic consumption.

Less profits?  :)

He asked what you THINK the effect will be, not what you WANT the effect to be.
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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #1443 on: September 15, 2022, 10:48:56 AM »
He asked what you THINK the effect will be, not what you WANT the effect to be.
Did my  :)  not show?
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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #1444 on: September 15, 2022, 11:10:55 AM »
Serious question to someone who is not familiar with the market.

Why do we still have a shortage of workers, especially since most of the unfilled job openings seem to be low or no skill, when we have millions of illegal immigrants streaming in and the States have no issues allowing them to work legally?

Offline CountValentine

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #1445 on: September 15, 2022, 11:16:54 AM »
Serious question to someone who is not familiar with the market.

Why do we still have a shortage of workers, especially since most of the unfilled job openings seem to be low or no skill, when we have millions of illegal immigrants streaming in and the States have no issues allowing them to work legally?
I was going to ask about immigrants ...

Many workers have just retired.
Some just don't want to work and it has nothing to do with incentives not to work.
We are still recovering from the covid effect. Once you stop working it takes time to go back.
The part I don't get is what income are they living on?
 
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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #1446 on: September 15, 2022, 11:19:07 AM »
I was going to ask about immigrants ...

Many workers have just retired.
Some just don't want to work and it has nothing to do with incentives not to work.
We are still recovering from the covid effect. Once you stop working it takes time to go back.
The part I don't get is what income are they living on?
Still doesn't answer the questions really and only adds more (especially the last like).

I understand fields that require skills can't be replenished quickly, but there are a ton of openings for unskilled labor. Why are those not filled?

Offline yuneeq

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #1447 on: September 15, 2022, 11:39:19 AM »
Still doesn't answer the questions really and only adds more (especially the last like).

I understand fields that require skills can't be replenished quickly, but there are a ton of openings for unskilled labor. Why are those not filled?

Illegal immigrants only help for jobs that don't need to be on the books. Approving more legal immigrants and granting work visas is the easy answer. But it doesn't matter who the president is, the option is never on the table.
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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #1448 on: September 15, 2022, 11:40:38 AM »
I understand fields that require skills can't be replenished quickly, but there are a ton of openings for unskilled labor. Why are those not filled?
That would be #2 on my list.  :)
People just are not motivated to work.
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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #1449 on: September 15, 2022, 11:59:26 AM »
That would be #2 on my list.  :)
People just are not motivated to work.
Lazy welfare queens? ;)

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #1450 on: September 15, 2022, 02:36:15 PM »
Why does a seedless cucumber cost between $3.29-3.75 per piece in crown heights???
Its insane.
It was $1-1.50 about 3 weeks ago.

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #1451 on: September 15, 2022, 05:41:05 PM »
Why does a seedless cucumber cost between $3.29-3.75 per piece in crown heights???
Its insane.
It was $1-1.50 about 3 weeks ago.
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Offline dm123

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #1452 on: September 16, 2022, 03:30:02 AM »
Serious question to someone who is not familiar with the market.

Why do we still have a shortage of workers, especially since most of the unfilled job openings seem to be low or no skill, when we have millions of illegal immigrants streaming in and the States have no issues allowing them to work legally?

Are millions streaming in? Not at all familiar but a quick Google search gave this
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/11/09/whats-happening-at-the-u-s-mexico-border-in-7-charts/

Not really sure how the math works so if anyone can help, but 1.6 million encounters of which, say, approx 50% were expelled (high of 74% in feb and lows of 47 in Jul aug) and 27% repeats (so 73% uniques?) gives 584k migrants apprehended (entered?) the US. How does that compare to historic rates and how big is the labor shortage?

Any way to estimate migrants that don’t encounter CBP?

Quote
The U.S. Border Patrol reported more than 1.6 million encounters with migrants along the U.S.-Mexico border in the 2021 fiscal year

Quote
more than a quarter of all migrant encounters at U.S. borders in both fiscal 2021 and fiscal 2020 (27% and 26%, respectively) involved repeat crossers, according to CBP statistics

Quote
In September 2021, 54% of encounters ended in expulsion, down from 74% in February 2021, the first full month after Biden took office.

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #1457 on: September 21, 2022, 10:54:52 AM »
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Offline yuneeq

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #1458 on: September 21, 2022, 07:09:06 PM »
This is key!

https://twitter.com/EconguyRosie/status/1572592176831369216

Goods have to come down in price at some point. Shipping prices are spiraling downward faster than ever. I'm getting quoted $2600 to the West Coast compared to $10-11k in May. East coast is down from $12-13k to about $6,800. Carriers are adjusting contracted rates weekly, which is unprecedented. Expecting it to continue falling as demand is dropping like a rock.
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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #1459 on: September 21, 2022, 07:50:21 PM »
Goods have to come down in price at some point. Shipping prices are spiraling downward faster than ever. I'm getting quoted $2600 to the West Coast compared to $10-11k in May. East coast is down from $12-13k to about $6,800. Carriers are adjusting contracted rates weekly, which is unprecedented. Expecting it to continue falling as demand is dropping like a rock.
What was it pre covid?