Is India the next Italy?

[PlatinumGuy]

Health minister tweeting to the transportation minister for urgent assistance
https://twitter.com/satyendarjain/status/1384549823685165064

[PlatinumGuy]

https://twitter.com/maxcroser/status/1383738806331863044

[Euclid]

India is a huge country, over 1.3 billion people; can't really compare to a single country.

Are all the regions being hit hard? Were they hit with a big first wave? I remember people touting India as "proof" that the BCG vaccine is effective for Covid.

[Ergel]

India is a huge country, over 1.3 billion people; can't really compare to a single country.

Are all the regions being hit hard? Were they hit with a big first wave? I remember people touting India as "proof" that the BCG vaccine is effective for Covid.

I don't know the answer to your questions, but I do know that we have maybe a couple of hundred employees in India and 20 of them are now out with Covid

[PlatinumGuy]

https://twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1384800225399820289

[Ergel]

I don't know the answer to your questions, but I do know that we have maybe a couple of hundred employees in India and 20 of them are now out with Covid

Every day more people are out (and the office isn't open, so presumably they aren't getting it from each other). Crazy

[SSLPhD]

Yesterday they had 315k+ new cases, more than the US's worst day. Their population is about 4x that of the US, but India likely has many, many cases that go undiagnosed, and the numbers are rising without showing signs of slowing down.

[AsherO]

Yesterday they had 315k+ new cases, more than the US's worst day. Their population is about 4x that of the US, but India likely has many, many cases that go undiagnosed, and the numbers are rising without showing signs of slowing down.

The fact that this is likely driven by variants is very disconcerting. Could be similar to B.1.351 (South African variant) against which current mRNA vaccines are only partially effective.

[Lurker]

The fact that this is likely driven by variants is very disconcerting. Could be similar to B.1.351 (South African variant) against which current mRNA vaccines are only partially effective.

I believe this is also only their second wave, which tends to be largest.

[PlatinumGuy]

The fact that this is likely driven by variants is very disconcerting. Could be similar to B.1.351 (South African variant) against which current mRNA vaccines are only partially effective.

Singapore already banned some categories of entrants from India and Israel is contemplating a new quarantine hotel requirement for pax from India.

That being said, partially is a strong word. The vaccine is only partially effective against any strain of nCov2, and the diminished efficacy against the SA variant isn’t necessarily significant.

[TimT]

Beg, Borrow, Steal

[AsherO]

Singapore already banned some categories of entrants from India and Israel is contemplating a new quarantine hotel requirement for pax from India.

That being said, partially is a strong word. The vaccine is only partially effective against any strain of nCov2, and the diminished efficacy against the SA variant isn’t necessarily significant.

Wasn’t there recently published mRNA study data from a South African trial showing ~55% efficacy?

In the spirit of the title of this thread, Italy had D614G that likely increased transmission from what started in Wuhan and spread to 96% of subsequent cases worldwide. If India has a similarly significant mutation it could mean really bad news.

[PlatinumGuy]

Wasn’t there recently published mRNA study data from a South African trial showing ~55% efficacy?

In the spirit of the title of this thread, Italy had D614G that likely increased transmission from what started in Wuhan and spread to 96% of subsequent cases worldwide. If India has a similarly significant mutation it could mean really bad news.

News to me.
True, but my impression was is that thus far almost unanimous credible medical opinion believes anticipated mutations are orders of magnitude lower than it would take to evade vaccine immunity for serious illness, and most of the fear is coming from biased vaccine manufacturers and uninformed government and media. I could be wrong though.

[TimT]

but India likely has many, many cases that go undiagnosed,

Much higher death toll too. They’re just taking bodies out back & burning them.

[PlatinumGuy]

Much higher death toll too. They’re just taking bodies out back & burning them.

Crematories are melting from overuse, R”L

[TimT]

Crematories are melting from overuse, R”L

They're doing it outdoors in the parks.

[AsherO]

News to me.
True, but my impression was is that thus far almost unanimous credible medical opinion believes anticipated mutations are orders of magnitude lower than it would take to evade vaccine immunity for serious illness, and most of the fear is coming from biased vaccine manufacturers and uninformed government and media. I could be wrong though.

I wish and hope you’re right, time will tell.

Googled around for mRNA B.1.351 efficacy and found 3 data points:
1. Small Pfizer study of 800 patients had vaccine 100% effective against COVID, only 2/3 of which, six cases out of nine, were confirmed to be B.1.351
2. Retrospective study in Israel showed B.1.351 to be much more prevalent in vaccinated people, but all cases were less than 14 days after second dose, so it’s inconclusive.
3. The data I’m referring to: Novovax was found to be 89% effective in the US, but only 50% effective against B.1.351 in SA study

[AsherO]

Much higher death toll too. They’re just taking bodies out back & burning them.

Keep in mind that their dense population and poverty contributes to an increase in both transmission and mortality.

[PlatinumGuy]

https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1385610616036073484

[TimT]

332,730 new cases