Author Topic: Biden’s Gas Crisis  (Read 129314 times)

Offline avromie7

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Re: Biden’s Gas Crisis
« Reply #640 on: March 26, 2022, 11:26:48 PM »
10-20 years with major investments.
If no one in world bought oil from Russia it would not matter. There is enough global supply to make up for it.
Oil is the least of the issues. In the short term it can be made up by SA and the UAE if they so desire. It's clear that cars are moving away form oil, and trucks will follow. This is a 20-30+ year process of attrition before the overwhelming majority of trucks are electric.

The bigger issue is the NG used to generate electricity which will be replacing the gasoline. There isn't anywhere near enough capacity to replace all the current oil, coal, and NG usage with renewables, never mind the increased demand for electricity replacing gasoline and replacing NG and oil for heating.

As we know, the chance of another nuclear power plant coming online in the US anytime soon is slim to none. That leaves us with wind and solar as the primary replacements. There isn't nearly enough manufacturing capacity to build these wind turbines and solar panels. Solar panels also need a lot more mining (likely in Russia) to increase production by at least an order of magnitude.

Even if there was enough solar and wind in 20 years to replace all fossil fuels (there won't be) there is still the issue of storage. Solar and wind are intermittent, they need a huge amount of battery storage to be able to take over the reliability of fossil fuels.

Battery technology has come a long way, and is continuing to advance at an amazing rate. There is no shortage of investment in battery technology, but mark my words, you will see OEMs unable to reach their targets for EV production due to cell shortages. Once that's resolved it will be on to electrifying trucks. Only then will all excess battery cell production be available to the massive scale grid storage that is necessary.

There already is some grid scale storage being implemented, but in order to change everything to renewables we will need to increase by orders of magnitude.

It's not a lack of investment, it just takes time. The cost for batteries dropped something like 90% over the past decade making it economically viable for the first time ever. Now it will just take time.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline CountValentine

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Re: Biden’s Gas Crisis
« Reply #641 on: March 26, 2022, 11:32:43 PM »
Now it will just take time.
100% oil companies talking point for the 30+ years. That is all it is, talk!
Make a law no oil can be imported in let's say 10-15 years. You need to start somewhere.
What we have had for the last 30+ years is more drilling.
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Offline avromie7

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Re: Biden’s Gas Crisis
« Reply #642 on: March 26, 2022, 11:42:00 PM »
100% oil companies talking point for the 30+ years. That is all it is, talk!
Make a law no oil can be imported in let's say 10-15 years. You need to start somewhere.
What we have had for the last 30+ years is more drilling.
You keep repeating oil, but NG is the bigger issue. The transition away from oil is relatively easy. You're also using very dumbed down rhetoric that has no bearing in reality. The primary outcome of outlawing oil will be an energy crisis worse than we have now. Even in your bubble, we still need oil for 15-20 years. How do we stop Russia being it's largest benefactor for the the next 20 years?
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline CountValentine

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Re: Biden’s Gas Crisis
« Reply #643 on: March 26, 2022, 11:52:18 PM »
You keep repeating oil, but NG is the bigger issue. The transition away from oil is relatively easy. You're also using very dumbed down rhetoric that has no bearing in reality. The primary outcome of outlawing oil will be an energy crisis worse than we have now. Even in your bubble, we still need oil for 15-20 years. How do we stop Russia being it's largest benefactor for the the next 20 years?
You need to start somewhere. Screw Russia, we don't need there oil or anyone else.
What isn't reality is just keep repeating it will take time but not take any steps to get there.
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Offline aygart

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Re: Biden’s Gas Crisis
« Reply #644 on: March 26, 2022, 11:54:52 PM »
You need to start somewhere. Screw Russia, we don't need there oil or anyone else.
What isn't reality is just keep repeating it will take time but not take any steps to get there.
There have been plenty of very large steps taken
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Offline CountValentine

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Re: Biden’s Gas Crisis
« Reply #645 on: March 26, 2022, 11:57:45 PM »
There have been plenty of very large steps taken
Then I missed them.
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Offline aygart

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Re: Biden’s Gas Crisis
« Reply #646 on: March 27, 2022, 12:01:42 AM »
Then I missed them.
Seriously? You can't think of any large steps taken over the past 20 years? Nothing at all?
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Offline CountValentine

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Re: Biden’s Gas Crisis
« Reply #647 on: March 27, 2022, 12:04:56 AM »
Seriously? You can't think of any large steps taken over the past 20 years? Nothing at all?
To wean us of oil, not really. There probably was but none come to mind. Maybe they just flopped or we were not serious.

The reason I harp on oil is because that seems like the easiest part.
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Offline aygart

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Re: Biden’s Gas Crisis
« Reply #648 on: March 27, 2022, 12:07:52 AM »
To wean us of oil, not really. There probably was but none come to mind. Maybe they just flopped or we were not serious.

The reason I harp on oil is because that seems like the easiest part.
How about EVs?
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline CountValentine

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Re: Biden’s Gas Crisis
« Reply #649 on: March 27, 2022, 12:10:07 AM »
How about EVs?
Ev's are great but didn't solve or even dent the oil problem. Now you want to get serious. Make it so no more gas cars in 10-20. That is not pie in the sky.
« Last Edit: March 27, 2022, 12:27:08 AM by CountValentine »
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Offline aygart

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Re: Biden’s Gas Crisis
« Reply #650 on: March 27, 2022, 12:23:49 AM »
Ev's are great but didn't solve or even dent the oil problem. Now you want to get serious. Make it so more gas cars in 10-20. That is not pie in the sky.
Of course it did. As did solar and wind generation and so many other things. Ignoring reality is how you end up with problems. Why would we want more gas cars?
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Offline CountValentine

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Re: Biden’s Gas Crisis
« Reply #651 on: March 27, 2022, 12:26:52 AM »
Why would we want more gas cars?
Oops, missed the no.
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Offline CountValentine

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Re: Biden’s Gas Crisis
« Reply #652 on: March 27, 2022, 12:28:51 AM »
Of course it did.
You think EV's are making a dent in the oil problem?
Compare that to enacting milage requirements.
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Offline aygart

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Re: Biden’s Gas Crisis
« Reply #653 on: March 27, 2022, 12:45:00 AM »
You think EV's are making a dent in the oil problem?
Compare that to enacting milage requirements.
Of course they are. If they grow at a steady rate without any acceleration at all they can take over the market.

Mileage requirements were enacted. There you just thought of one yourself.
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Offline CountValentine

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Re: Biden’s Gas Crisis
« Reply #654 on: March 27, 2022, 12:50:19 AM »
Mileage requirements were enacted. There you just thought of one yourself.
That didn't wean us off oil.  :)
The problem would have been worse without them.
It is like spending less but still more than you are taking in. That will never solve the problem.
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Offline aygart

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Re: Biden’s Gas Crisis
« Reply #655 on: March 27, 2022, 01:00:47 AM »
That didn't wean us off oil.  :)
The problem would have been worse without them.
It is like spending less but still more than you are taking in. That will never solve the problem.
It is a huge step in the right direction that you denied.
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline CountValentine

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Re: Biden’s Gas Crisis
« Reply #656 on: March 27, 2022, 01:12:27 AM »
It is a huge step in the right direction that you denied.
I didn't denied anything.
Right before the pandemic we used more gasoline than ever.
ETA: EV are less than 3% of vehicles on the road. You think that made a dent? If it did it is one you can't see.  :)
Now if you want to get serious about EV's get a national charging network.
« Last Edit: March 27, 2022, 01:19:50 AM by CountValentine »
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Offline aygart

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Re: Biden’s Gas Crisis
« Reply #657 on: March 27, 2022, 01:19:23 AM »
I didn't denied anything.
Right before the pandemic we used more gasoline than ever.
That's right. Mandates didn't change that. Are you advocating we double  down on them? Isn't that what you called a fossil?
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Offline CountValentine

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Re: Biden’s Gas Crisis
« Reply #658 on: March 27, 2022, 01:20:55 AM »
That's right. Mandates didn't change that. Are you advocating we double  down on them? Isn't that what you called a fossil?
Mandates?
See my edit.
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Offline avromie7

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Re: Biden’s Gas Crisis
« Reply #659 on: March 27, 2022, 09:10:40 AM »
I didn't denied anything.
Right before the pandemic we used more gasoline than ever.
ETA: EV are less than 3% of vehicles on the road. You think that made a dent? If it did it is one you can't see.  :)
Now if you want to get serious about EV's get a national charging network.
EVs is happening. I believe the majority of new cars will be electric in less than 5 years. It's growing at an amazing rate and is mostly limited by battery cell constraints. In 2021 it grew by over 100%, if we try to force it any faster there will be a bigger shortage of cars and we will have more issues like the Chevy Bolt exploding batteries. It will take another bunch of years to mostly phase out ICE cars due to attrition. There is no need for a ban on ICE cars, they will be phased out on their own as EVs become cheaper to make and own than ICE cars.

Now the problem that won't be solved in the next few years is NG, and we will need more of it to power the EVs.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.