Author Topic: Biden’s Gas Crisis  (Read 129641 times)

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Re: Biden’s Gas Crisis
« Reply #660 on: March 27, 2022, 09:39:13 AM »
EVs is happening. I believe the majority of new cars will be electric in less than 5 years. It's growing at an amazing rate and is mostly limited by battery cell constraints. In 2021 it grew by over 100%, if we try to force it any faster there will be a bigger shortage of cars and we will have more issues like the Chevy Bolt exploding batteries. It will take another bunch of years to mostly phase out ICE cars due to attrition. There is no need for a ban on ICE cars, they will be phased out on their own as EVs become cheaper to make and own than ICE cars.

Now the problem that won't be solved in the next few years is NG, and we will need more of it to power the EVs.
When you start at zero it is easy to grow at what seems like an amazing rate. They had there best quarter ever and still was only 4.5% of the market. Majority of car sales being EV's in 5 years is a pipe dream. We won't even have the charging infrastructure in place after 5 years.

If you want EV's to be the majority of cars sold in five years then you need major government investments now. That is not happening because as big oil will tell you "it takes time".  :)
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Re: Biden’s Gas Crisis
« Reply #661 on: March 27, 2022, 09:44:43 AM »
When you start at zero it is easy to grow at what seems like an amazing rate. They had there best quarter ever and still was only 4.5% of the market. Majority of car sales being EV's in 5 years is a pipe dream. We won't even have the charging infrastructure in place after 5 years.

If you want EV's to be the majority of cars sold in five years then you need major government investments now. That is not happening because as big oil will tell you "it takes time".  :)
There IS major government investment right now. The incentives available for property owners to install charging stations are quite high.
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline avromie7

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Re: Biden’s Gas Crisis
« Reply #662 on: March 27, 2022, 09:46:19 AM »
Another very important topic that we're ignoring is the effects of going all electric. While we won't need oil, we will be reliant on China and Russia for the raw materials needed for batteries. Just look at how the war affected the price of nickel.
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Re: Biden’s Gas Crisis
« Reply #663 on: March 27, 2022, 10:03:53 AM »
a national charging network.
What is this?
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Offline avromie7

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Re: Biden’s Gas Crisis
« Reply #664 on: March 27, 2022, 10:10:10 AM »
When you start at zero it is easy to grow at what seems like an amazing rate. They had there best quarter ever and still was only 4.5% of the market. Majority of car sales being EV's in 5 years is a pipe dream. We won't even have the charging infrastructure in place after 5 years.

If you want EV's to be the majority of cars sold in five years then you need major government investments now. That is not happening because as big oil will tell you "it takes time".  :)
https://www.google.com/amp/s/electrek.co/2022/02/02/global-market-share-of-electric-cars-more-than-doubled-2021/amp/

"The International Energy Agency released a new report looking at car sales around the world and confirmed that EV market share jumped from 4.11% in 2020 to 8.57% in 2021"

A few more years of this and we're well past 50% in 3 years. I'm sure there won't be 100% y/y growth for 5 years straight, but we'll reach 50% with about 42% average growth over 5 years. That's completely attainable, and the way the "experts" keep increase their predictions for 2030 shows that they're still behind the curve.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

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Re: Biden’s Gas Crisis
« Reply #665 on: March 27, 2022, 10:10:30 AM »
When you start at zero it is easy to grow at what seems like an amazing rate. They had there best quarter ever and still was only 4.5% of the market. Majority of car sales being EV's in 5 years is a pipe dream. We won't even have the charging infrastructure in place after 5 years.

If you want EV's to be the majority of cars sold in five years then you need major government investments now. That is not happening because as big oil will tell you "it takes time".  :)

Going from zero to 5% in a few years is a major development and accomplished by free market economics. No other route away from fossil fuels has grown like that from what I understand. Once you add hybrids it has reached 10%.


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Re: Biden’s Gas Crisis
« Reply #666 on: March 27, 2022, 11:08:53 AM »
accomplished by free market economics.

Was it? Now Tesla is finally profiting from cars, but would they have got here without relying on carbon credits?

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Re: Biden’s Gas Crisis
« Reply #667 on: March 27, 2022, 11:15:04 AM »
What is this?
When I drive ORD to LAS and stop at a hotel where do I charge my car?
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Re: Biden’s Gas Crisis
« Reply #668 on: March 27, 2022, 11:16:33 AM »
Going from zero to 5% in a few years is a major development and accomplished by free market economics. No other route away from fossil fuels has grown like that from what I understand. Once you add hybrids it has reached 10%.



https://www.google.com/amp/s/electrek.co/2022/02/02/global-market-share-of-electric-cars-more-than-doubled-2021/amp/

"The International Energy Agency released a new report looking at car sales around the world and confirmed that EV market share jumped from 4.11% in 2020 to 8.57% in 2021"

A few more years of this and we're well past 50% in 3 years. I'm sure there won't be 100% y/y growth for 5 years straight, but we'll reach 50% with about 42% average growth over 5 years. That's completely attainable, and the way the "experts" keep increase their predictions for 2030 shows that they're still behind the curve.
Who wants to put their money were there mouth is?
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Simone Biles: “I love my black job”

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Re: Biden’s Gas Crisis
« Reply #669 on: March 27, 2022, 11:19:35 AM »
There IS major government investment right now. The incentives available for property owners to install charging stations are quite high.
Don't let the facts get in the way.

If you bought a charger in 2021, you may be eligible for a federal income tax credit for 30% of the charger’s cost. If you waited until 2022, you’re out of luck. Here in Berkeley, I qualified for rebates totaling $0. My utility, the financially troubled Pacific Gas & Electric, offers no home EV charger incentives at all.
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Re: Biden’s Gas Crisis
« Reply #670 on: March 27, 2022, 11:47:14 AM »
Don't let the facts get in the way.

If you bought a charger in 2021, you may be eligible for a federal income tax credit for 30% of the charger’s cost. If you waited until 2022, you’re out of luck. Here in Berkeley, I qualified for rebates totaling $0. My utility, the financially troubled Pacific Gas & Electric, offers no home EV charger incentives at all.
Home EV chargers are not very expensive. DC fast chargers are extremely expensive and they aren't profitable. That's where incentives can help. A DC fast charger can be $100k+ per stall, and the demand charges are very high. It takes a very high utilization rate to break even on operations, nevermind recoup the initial outlay.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

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Re: Biden’s Gas Crisis
« Reply #671 on: March 27, 2022, 11:51:09 AM »
It takes a very high utilization rate to break even on operations, nevermind recoup the initial outlay.
Ding ding ding we have a winner!!!

It is a catch 22. You want 50% EV ownership you better have a national infrastructure plan in place. That is where the major investment comes in. Unfortunately that means the government.
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Re: Biden’s Gas Crisis
« Reply #672 on: March 27, 2022, 12:59:06 PM »
Ding ding ding we have a winner!!!

It is a catch 22. You want 50% EV ownership you better have a national infrastructure plan in place. That is where the major investment comes in. Unfortunately that means the government.
There are some major subsidies currently available. They can vary widely between utility companies, but the ones I've seen include subsidies up to $50k and a reduction in demand charges of 50-75%.

Regardless, the same way we got to 8.5% it will continue increasing. I'm sure there are people who will have a more difficult time, but DC fast charging is not needed for most people on a daily basis. Level 2 chargers at businesses and multi-family complexes would solve most of the issues. There are subsidies for those as well.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

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Re: Biden’s Gas Crisis
« Reply #673 on: March 27, 2022, 01:04:21 PM »
There are some major subsidies currently available. They can vary widely between utility companies, but the ones I've seen include subsidies up to $50k and a reduction in demand charges of 50-75%.

Regardless, the same way we got to 8.5% it will continue increasing. I'm sure there are people who will have a more difficult time, but DC fast charging is not needed for most people on a daily basis. Level 2 chargers at businesses and multi-family complexes would solve most of the issues. There are subsidies for those as well.
Businesses are not going to invest in charging stations when EV's are less than 3% of the cars out there. The government has to step in.

Not sure why you are using 8.5% when we are talking about the US. The 4Q 2021 was 4.5%, no?
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Re: Biden’s Gas Crisis
« Reply #674 on: March 27, 2022, 01:30:41 PM »
Was it? Now Tesla is finally profiting from cars, but would they have got here without relying on carbon credits?

Meaning would they have gotten enough investment?
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Re: Biden’s Gas Crisis
« Reply #675 on: March 27, 2022, 01:33:42 PM »
Businesses are not going to invest in charging stations when EV's are less than 3% of the cars out there. The government has to step in.

There are some major subsidies currently available.
Feelings don't care about your facts

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Re: Biden’s Gas Crisis
« Reply #676 on: March 27, 2022, 01:44:12 PM »

Giving someone 30k to invest 100k+ in a losing proposition is not a major subsidy.
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Offline zh cohen

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Re: Biden’s Gas Crisis
« Reply #677 on: March 27, 2022, 01:51:14 PM »
Meaning would they have gotten enough investment?

Yes. Or would they have even tried.

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Re: Biden’s Gas Crisis
« Reply #678 on: March 27, 2022, 02:29:47 PM »
Giving someone 30k to invest 100k+ in a losing proposition is not a major subsidy.
Yet so many of my clients are installing them
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Re: Biden’s Gas Crisis
« Reply #679 on: March 27, 2022, 03:49:57 PM »
Yet so many of my clients are installing them
The primary incentive to install them is to attract customers.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.