Biden’s Gas Crisis

[aygart]

Their source is Gasbuddy? 

They are quoting analysts at BOA and Piper Sandler and the CEO of Valero. It is hard to imagine that demand is below summer of 2020. They bring in a significant point about how the reporting server has a catastrophic failure and it took weeks to restore. Maybe there is a technical issue going on.

[CountValentine]

They are quoting analysts at BOA and Piper Sandler and the CEO of Valero. It is hard to imagine that demand is below summer of 2020. They bring in a significant point about how the reporting server has a catastrophic failure and it took weeks to restore. Maybe there is a technical issue going on.

It would be sad if it was that easy to fool the market.

[yelped]

It would be sad if it was that easy to fool the market.

True, but stranger things have happened in the world.

[CountValentine]

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Dodgy-Demand-Data-The-Oil-Price-Collapse-Conspiracy.html

Anything new on the conspiracy? @avromie7

[CountValentine]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/oil-prices-drop-as-positive-signals-on-iran-nuclear-talks-raise-the-prospect-of-a-massive-supply-influx/ar-AA10J9U7?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=8df41c337b6c4e99ba091ce65cd59509

[Kobe Bryant]

“Gas prices continue to fall in New Jersey and around the nation amid lower crude oil prices and lower-than-usual demand as the end of the summer driving season approaches.

AAA Mid-Atlantic says the average price of a gallon of regular gas in New Jersey on Friday was $4.10, down 10 cents from last week. Drivers were paying $3.19 a gallon on average a year ago at this time.

The national average price for a gallon of regular gasoline was $3.91, down six cents from last week. Drivers were paying $3.17 a gallon on average a year ago at this time.”

[gozalim]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/oil-prices-drop-as-positive-signals-on-iran-nuclear-talks-raise-the-prospect-of-a-massive-supply-influx/ar-AA10J9U7?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=8df41c337b6c4e99ba091ce65cd59509

out of the frying pan...

[ExGingi]

https://twitter.com/MacroAlf/status/1562056678824382464

@aygart I imagine you've seen this image that is all over twitterspace this morning. What are current NY/NJ prices per MWh?

[AsherO]

https://twitter.com/MacroAlf/status/1562056678824382464

@aygart I imagine you've seen this image that is all over twitterspace this morning. What are current NY/NJ prices per MWh?

Yeah, it’s outta control over there.

[CountValentine]

Yeah, it’s outta control over there.

I guess we have it pretty good then? 

[ExGingi]

I guess we have it pretty good then? 

Everything is relative. Russia probably has it even better.

[drosenberg88429]

https://twitter.com/MacroAlf/status/1562056678824382464

@aygart I imagine you've seen this image that is all over twitterspace this morning. What are current NY/NJ prices per MWh?

I checked https://www.globalpetrolprices.com/countries/ for household electricity rates. It seems that household prices in USA are about $0.16/mwh (would technically mean $160/kwh, but obviously production cost before delivery is way less than charge at retail household level). Europe ranges from $0.24-$0.39/mwh, in countries I spot checked. (Israel is $0.16, same as USA, and Russia is $0.08, about half USA cost, although that may be due to ruble conversion rate on global market.)

IDK how up to date this site I checked is, but unless there are heavy subsidies going on, it seems like the rate is significantly below €600/kwh.

[avromie7]

I checked https://www.globalpetrolprices.com/countries/ for household electricity rates. It seems that household prices in USA are about $0.16/mwh (would technically mean $160/kwh, but obviously production cost before delivery is way less than charge at retail household level). Europe ranges from $0.24-$0.39/mwh, in countries I spot checked. (Israel is $0.16, same as USA, and Russia is $0.08, about half USA cost, although that may be due to ruble conversion rate on global market.)

IDK how up to date this site I checked is, but unless there are heavy subsidies going on, it seems like the rate is significantly below €600/kwh.

You swapped mwh and kwh throughout your post, 1 mwh = 1000 kwh.

Keep in mind that .16 is an average, with states like CA, NY, MA, and CT being significantly higher and others being significantly lower.

[drosenberg88429]

You swapped mwh and kwh throughout your post, 1 mwh = 1000 kwh.

I just meant to say that even at retail price, the highest rate I saw was $0.39/mwh, which would be $390 kwh delivered at household rate. Presumably the production cost is significantly cheaper. Of course, it is possible that the power providers are operating at a loss or are being subsidized due to caps or limitations in the price increase amounts or frequency.

Admittedly, I do not recall Germany being from the countries I checked, and upon a closer look at graphic you posted, that seems to be from the most expensive countries.

[avromie7]

I just meant to say that even at retail price, the highest rate I saw was $0.39/kwh, which would be $390 mwh delivered at household rate. Presumably the production cost is significantly cheaper. Of course, it is possible that the power providers are operating at a loss or are being subsidized due to caps or limitations in the price increase amounts or frequency.

Admittedly, I do not recall Germany being from the countries I checked, and upon a closer look at graphic you posted, that seems to be from the most expensive countries.

FTFY

The retail rate in Europe will be significantly higher that $.60. There is delivery and taxes which are likely higher than most states.

[aygart]

https://twitter.com/Jkylebass/status/1562799846758555649

[Ver hut gazugt]

https://twitter.com/Jkylebass/status/1562799846758555649

based on this maybe solar panels will be the next item to be in short supply. Maybe pays to invest in Renewable energy stocks.

[avromie7]

This is going to be a disaster. While the US is emptying it's reserves, OPEC is talking about cutting production. This will lead to no reserves and high prices.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/UAE-Likely-To-Support-OPEC-Oil-Production-Cuts.html

[CountValentine]

This is going to be a disaster. While the US is emptying it's reserves, OPEC is talking about cutting production. This will lead to no reserves and high prices.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/UAE-Likely-To-Support-OPEC-Oil-Production-Cuts.html

It is actually a good thing to force this country to wake up.

[yuneeq]

This is going to be a disaster. While the US is emptying it's reserves, OPEC is talking about cutting production. This will lead to no reserves and high prices.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/UAE-Likely-To-Support-OPEC-Oil-Production-Cuts.html

Isn’t it basic economics - buy high when supply is low, and release when supply is higher? That will definitely smooth things out.